Personally, I am only playing the top seven horses (74+) in my exactas and trifectas as there is a substantial drop in power rating value (Crown Pride 63).
All seven are close enough in value to box.
Also will bet some exactas and trifectas with 12 & 6 on top.
These ratings come from the same computer algorithm that I used to win the rainbow pick 6 for $9,000. Hoping for a good result again.
That looks like a pretty solid ranking to me - and yes, there's a drop off at the top 7. The only two horses I'm looking at now for longshots are the next two, so I think the top 9 is what I'll be playing.
Interesting that you have Smile Happy high up, but maybe Runhappy can sire a classic distance horse. He definitely has a look of a pony that can sneak in underneath in the gimmicks.
Perhaps you're right, if Crown Pride can catch a good price, I'll throw him in the mix. Top 8 it is.
As for Smile Happy, the last race was best speed figure but faded down the stretch into 2nd. Definitely won't put on top except boxes, but will use in exactas and trifectas.
Thanks for the ratings. Looks damned interesting. Shores up pretty much what I have going with a couple of add ones, here. Will my wagering much easier. Thanks again.
It’s good. The only one I don’t like is Smile Happy. Should be seventh instead of third IMO. I don’t know if he’ll make it and he doesn’t win many. I have my doubts until I see one of these make the distance. Could I get burned? Of coarse, I could. But I have reservations about that horse and the distance. The excuse is he was wide. What? Does he get a golden rail Saturday? The horse that passed him was bobbing and weaving to catch him. Not one I like.
Like your picks. I will be doing something very similar. a note about Smile Happy I listened to Mike Welsh from the DRF clocker report where he watches the horses daily morning workouts and he says that Smile Happy has been getting HOT which is not a good sign. But both of my paid services andherethey come and super screener both have smile happy in their picks so i will be using on some.
Yeah , Smile Happy maybe in the Super if you play that. But there’s no way on Gods green Earth that he should be third. I don’t know how anyone justifies that. So, he’s most likely going to be over bet. That’s what it sort of says to me . We will see. I don’t know if these guys are the one of the ones on OTB Bluegrass day. But there was one so called “Public Handicapper” that claimed to like Smile Happy since Kentucky last year. IMO , these days you can’t do that . I can’t give that credibility at all. If he does it , that won’t be the first time I’ve lost this way but I’ve been pretty good at eliminating the ones that won’t make it over the years. And he’s got that “look” for sure.
Yes, 50 cent base wagers on the trifectas and pick 3s, however you define triple.
I went back and tweaked a few things, but will be betting more along the lines of your rankings, with the and key ponies on top. I generate some ratings, but am not confident enough to call them power rankings. More like wild ass guesses. Added in the 21 dog.
Good luck today. Attached my sheet, along with Oaks-Derby double payouts:
and 
key ponies on top. I generate some ratings, but am not confident enough to call them power rankings. More like wild ass guesses. Added in the 21 dog.
Mo Donegal
Smile Happy
