taiba @ 12-1 is ridiculously high

[dballard125]

Beyer and Privman dont like Taiba at all. Think it's asking too much of him to win in only his 3rd start. Hell, Beyer doesn't even think he should run in the Derby. He like White Abbario

[zico20]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

12-1 seems a bit high, but, there's several others that will take good money. It's tough to get more than four horses with single digit odds. There were 4 in 2019, 3 in 2020, barely 4 last year (Known Agenda was technically 9.9-1). It's a very good bet Zandon and Epicenter will be in the single digits. Messier probably gets the higher end of it. That leaves room for perhaps one more horse near 10-1. I'd guess Taiba would be the one but could see Mo Donegal or some wise guy horse take that spot. If that happens, then you'll get 12-1 on Taiba.

Epicenter will be 4-1, Taiba 6-1, Zandon 8-1, Messier 9-1 Mo Donegal goes off at 13-1 as the fifth choice. I am shocked the ML has Zandon the favorite, way way off.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

12-1 seems a bit high, but, there's several others that will take good money. It's tough to get more than four horses with single digit odds. There were 4 in 2019, 3 in 2020, barely 4 last year (Known Agenda was technically 9.9-1). It's a very good bet Zandon and Epicenter will be in the single digits. Messier probably gets the higher end of it. That leaves room for perhaps one more horse near 10-1. I'd guess Taiba would be the one but could see Mo Donegal or some wise guy horse take that spot. If that happens, then you'll get 12-1 on Taiba.

with all the money bet and spread out they can't depress the odds that much figure horses that much. (win betting seems solid with most of these figure horses) what gets hit are the second tier horses and some longshots. usually they should be higher but in the derby many are much lower than they should be. bad for win betting. still solid in exotics with them

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by dballard125

Beyer and Privman dont like Taiba at all. Think it's asking too much of him to win in only his 3rd start. Hell, Beyer doesn't even think he should run in the Derby. He like White Abbario

funny stuff.

i was waiting for him to say they should wait 70 days and run him in a restricted winners race.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by dballard125

Beyer and Privman dont like Taiba at all. Think it's asking too much of him to win in only his 3rd start. Hell, Beyer doesn't even think he should run in the Derby. He like White Abbario

That means I should be double fisting that horse at the window.

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That means I should be doubkle fisting that horse.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

funny stuff.

i was waiting for him to say they should wait 70 days and run him in a restricted winners race.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That means I should be double fisting that horse at the window.

Exactly!

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That means I should be double fisting that horse at the window.

i want to go to the track with a big stack of 200 1 dollar bills with large denoms on the outside of it.

i'm obv a baller and must represent

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by dballard125

Curious who you have landed on. Since I joined the forum a few years back, I've always appreciated your take on the Derby.

Tougher to pin down this year. I'm settling on three that fit most my preferred angles: Taiba is a fast RAN, Messier is a fast RAN w/Buspasser, Zandon is a fast late runner with strong female line. All three have elite Derby riders. My B-squad would be Epicenter (seems just a tad slow on figures but Louisiana sometimes gets crapped on by figure makers), Smile Happy (breeding suggests a good fit on wet track), and Mo Donegal (fast Wood but skeptical).

Wheel the over the B-squad and a bomber then also pin them in horizonals. I like Nest and Echo in the Oaks. The Turf Classic is a tricky one for the two-day P3 play.

[LemonSoupKid]

I've been keeping an eye on Taiba for most of the week and since the SA Derby, I couldn't believe it when I heard he shot up to 12-1. Anything around 6 or higher for me is a must bet to win; he has the much potential. It should be interesting how the surface plays out. Mo Donegal and Zandon seem to be th real deal too. Is anyone playing the big horizontals? Is it a mandatory on Derby Day (pick 6 or 5?)?

Thanks boys, good luck

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Tougher to pin down this year. I'm settling on three that fit most my preferred angles: Taiba is a fast RAN, Messier is a fast RAN w/Buspasser, Zandon is a fast late runner with strong female line. All three have elite Derby riders. My B-squad would be Epicenter (seems just a tad slow on figures but Louisiana sometimes gets crapped on by figure makers), Smile Happy (breeding suggests a good fit on wet track), and Mo Donegal (fast Wood but skeptical).

Wheel the over the B-squad and a bomber then also pin them in horizonals. I like Nest and Echo in the Oaks. The Turf Classic is a tricky one for the two-day P3 play.

We are pretty well aligned. Thanks for sharing!

[JustRalph]

watch his last work

he was pressing way thru the gallop out

Looked the best to me.......

[Aerocraft67]

The 12-1 odds seem pretty high—but sixth choice seems pretty reasonable. I do feel the all-or-nothing vibe.

Of the five highest figs ever run by the field, Taiba ran two of them, including the highest (tied with Messier). In his first two races. No runner has come even close to those two figs in their early races. It's nuts.

Looking at best fig in first three races, the distant next two performers are the other two least experienced runners, Charge It and Zozos (That's kind of interesting in its own right.). Taiba isn't the only prodigy here, but it's the strongest.

On the other hand...

Taiba has passed three horses in its entire career—facing all of 11 rivals. It figures to be, what, sixth in the early going? With at least five legitimate contenders among the 14 closing in?

You could argue half a dozen of these are classier. Sounds pretty daunting for your third race.

He could win like the second coming of Secretariat. But he could very reasonably run fifth. Or wig out and finish way back.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by dballard125

Beyer and Privman dont like Taiba at all. Think it's asking too much of him to win in only his 3rd start. Hell, Beyer doesn't even think he should run in the Derby. He like White Abbario

If he finishes in the money scrap the entire points system and figure something else out. My favorite toss..