taiba @ 12-1 is ridiculously high

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by dballard125

Agreed. Mike didn't even hit him in the stretch. Hand rode him home and it looks like they havent even gotten to the bottom of the horse yet. If he only runs back to his speed figures in his first two races, he should be on the wire. If he improves, and gets a decent trip, he wins going away IMO.

i can't believe nobody is talking the horse up. i haven't been here in weeks and thought for certain somebody would post that this looks like a very special horse that ran a dominating race. i guess a lot of people don't see it, although giving them the benefit of the doubt, wtf do they think were they looking at ..lol

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i can't believe nobody is talking the horse up. i haven't been here in weeks and thought for certain somebody would post that this looks like a very special horse that ran a dominating race. i guess a lot of people don't see it, although giving them the benefit of the doubt, wtf do they think were they looking at ..lol

I think many are writing him off because of the curse of Opollo. All records (or curses in this case) end at some point, right? If he behaved like Charge It in the stretch, I would be concerned about him only having two races. But Taiba has been nothing but professional. Leaves the gate well, rates off the pace like a seasoned horse, etc. I have to play him.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I think many are writing him off because of the curse of Opollo. All records (or curses in this case) end at some point, right? If he behaved like Charge It in the stretch, I would be concerned about him only having two races. But Taiba has been nothing but professional. Leaves the gate well, rates off the pace like a seasoned horse, etc. I have to play him.

they have him charted at being on 3L off the lead in the sa. watching that race live he seemed further back.

if anything it looks like he could have been even closer to the lead if he wanted to be. when he moved he moved methodically and with conviction as well. it's like they took it easy on him and he still rolled the field.

the horse seemed wrapped up with much more in the tank zooming by messier.

[gov135]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I've narrowed it down to keying Taiba and Epicenter on top, although I worry about Epicenter getting crashed down on, and losing ground into the first turn.

Same. We are riding to glory together, or going down w the ship together. I will need to be correct about these two to hit that dream super.

Taiba was visually impressive. And an improvement off that in third start would be tough to beat. Epicenter is the best of the forwardly placed. He has shown every indication he will be the one that will need to be run down.

Or I am very wrong. Will be fun.

[dballard125]

Mike Smith talks Taiba

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFQW2-uAIzk

[GaryG]

With so many possibilities for the exotics I plan to bet Taiba to win and place at 6-1 or higher and just go with that.

[zico20]

I am staying with what I said a month ago, Taiba either wins or he is nowhere to be found. Either he is a superhorse or the two starts in two months does him in. What he is trying to accomplish is virtually impossible. I thought the same about the SA Derby and was wrong on that. He needs a clean trip or he is finished. If I was betting my life on the two scenarios, I would say he is up the track but I wouldn't be the least surprised if he wins like Secretariat. The odds are a joke, he is going off around 6-1, maybe 5-1.

[dballard125]

FWIW, John White loves Taiba in the Derby.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhcVcrZd7WA

[Parkview_Pirate]

Taiba is getting dinged for so few starts, and results from prior Derbies. Well, what percentage of Derby starters have come into the race with only two starts? Not very many, would be my guess.

Don't let the laws of statistics slide because it's the Derby.

As for Taiba's M/L at 12-1, it's hard to say how that will pan out, but some players in Kentucky and the East Coast have historically downgraded the Southern Cal ponies coming in with racing experience in small fields. Just look at what Winning Colors paid for her win in the days before co-mingling. $4.40 at Santa Anita, and $12.60 at Belmont if memory serves. On track at CD, $8.80 I think.

But if you're gonna play Taiba on top, good luck. I see the "all or nothing" thought process as a real possibility. But it reminds me of what a younger kid and I used to argue about back in the 1980s at Fairmount Park.

Me: "Kid, you're an idiot to bet a 3-5 shot, when there's this huge overlay at 10-1 that looks solid."

Kid: "It's only an overlay if it WINS."

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Taiba is getting dinged for so few starts, and results from prior Derbies. Well, what percentage of Derby starters have come into the race with only two starts? Not very many, would be my guess.

Don't let the laws of statistics slide because it's the Derby.

As for Taiba's M/L at 12-1, it's hard to say how that will pan out, but some players in Kentucky and the East Coast have historically downgraded the Southern Cal ponies coming in with racing experience in small fields. Just look at what Winning Colors paid for her win in the days before co-mingling. $4.40 at Santa Anita, and $12.60 at Belmont if memory serves. On track at CD, $8.80 I think.

But if you're gonna play Taiba on top, good luck. I see the "all or nothing" thought process as a real possibility. But it reminds me of what a younger kid and I used to argue about back in the 1980s at Fairmount Park.

Me: "Kid, you're an idiot to bet a 3-5 shot, when there's this huge overlay at 10-1 that looks solid."

Kid: "It's only an overlay if it WINS."

Do we know each other? I used to bet 3-5 shots at Fairmount back in the 1980's and anytime someone said "this horse is the value/overlay" I always said "only if he wins." It was my favorite line that I said thousands of times.

[f2tornado]

12-1 seems a bit high, but, there's several others that will take good money. It's tough to get more than four horses with single digit odds. There were 4 in 2019, 3 in 2020, barely 4 last year (Known Agenda was technically 9.9-1). It's a very good bet Zandon and Epicenter will be in the single digits. Messier probably gets the higher end of it. That leaves room for perhaps one more horse near 10-1. I'd guess Taiba would be the one but could see Mo Donegal or some wise guy horse take that spot. If that happens, then you'll get 12-1 on Taiba.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

12-1 seems a bit high, but, there's several others that will take good money. It's tough to get more than four horses with single digit odds. There were 4 in 2019, 3 in 2020, barely 4 last year (Known Agenda was technically 9.9-1). It's a very good bet Zandon and Epicenter will be in the single digits. Messier probably gets the higher end of it. That leaves room for perhaps one more horse near 10-1. I'd guess Taiba would be the one but could see Mo Donegal or some wise guy horse take that spot. If that happens, then you'll get 12-1 on Taiba.

Curious who you have landed on. Since I joined the forum a few years back, I've always appreciated your take on the Derby.

[Frost king]

If Baffert was still listed as the trainer, he would not be listed as 12-1.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by zico20

I am staying with what I said a month ago, Taiba either wins or he is nowhere to be found. Either he is a superhorse or the two starts in two months does him in. What he is trying to accomplish is virtually impossible. I thought the same about the SA Derby and was wrong on that. He needs a clean trip or he is finished. If I was betting my life on the two scenarios, I would say he is up the track but I wouldn't be the least surprised if he wins like Secretariat. The odds are a joke, he is going off around 6-1, maybe 5-1.

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Taiba is getting dinged for so few starts, and results from prior Derbies. Well, what percentage of Derby starters have come into the race with only two starts? Not very many, would be my guess.

Don't let the laws of statistics slide because it's the Derby.

As for Taiba's M/L at 12-1, it's hard to say how that will pan out, but some players in Kentucky and the East Coast have historically downgraded the Southern Cal ponies coming in with racing experience in small fields. Just look at what Winning Colors paid for her win in the days before co-mingling. $4.40 at Santa Anita, and $12.60 at Belmont if memory serves. On track at CD, $8.80 I think.

But if you're gonna play Taiba on top, good luck. I see the "all or nothing" thought process as a real possibility. But it reminds me of what a younger kid and I used to argue about back in the 1980s at Fairmount Park.

Me: "Kid, you're an idiot to bet a 3-5 shot, when there's this huge overlay at 10-1 that looks solid."

Kid: "It's only an overlay if it WINS."

nonsense.

"you're either first or last" was coined by the crazy drunk dad in talledega nights.

shake and bake

[boys at tosconova]

what i find funny about the solid price your going to get on taiba is that so many in this forum have been betting for an awful long time at try and get the best value is a major part of their equation whe picking horses.

now they could get 10-1 on the fastest horse in the race and they won't play it.

i feel like i'm jay trotter asking people if they like betting on the chance of lightning.