taiba @ 12-1 is ridiculously high

[boys at tosconova]

i don't know if he will, but the horse should vie for favoritism. can't believe people aren't talking about how dominant his sa derby was.

must use in exotics. ..whereas i can find reasons to not use zandon at all. mainly because he could be 15/20th early on. gunnavera pt II

[f2tornado]

12-1 would be a gift. If the horse had one more race then would be seeing more Justify comparisons. I can't double first this one but will certainly give it ample play.

[GaryG]

I like him a lot. 8-1 would suit me.

[dballard125]

I've narrowed it down to keying Taiba and Epicenter on top, although I worry about Epicenter getting crashed down on, and losing ground into the first turn.

I would like to add one more, and it's between Messier & Zandon. However, Messier doesnt meet the final fractions criteria, which is major for me. And I worry a little about Zandon's trip.

[FartyJones]

Messier was pretty geared down toward the end, enough to waive the .1 seconds. AHP used to do something similar, but would use the higher side of par, which Messier would fit.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by FartyJones

Messier was pretty geared down toward the end, enough to waive the .1 seconds. AHP used to do something similar, but would use the higher side of par, which Messier would fit.

True. And a part of me wonders if that was part of the Baffert/Yakteen plan. If he won the SA, great...but dont kill him trying to do so. Let Taiba get the points, experienced, and confidence.

[FartyJones]

yeah i wouldn't be surprised especially coming off the shelf. 2 months is a long time to not run and still perform that well.

[Frost king]

It would only karma and a big F-U to Churchill Downs, that the ex-Baffert horses would win. That is where I am headed.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Frost king

It would only karma and a big F-U to Churchill Downs, that the ex-Baffert horses would win. That is where I am headed.

they might be the best. the vitamins might still be in their system as well.

trying to find reasons to toss messier is difficult to do. he might of lost to a super horse, and while you can push him back some you can't entirely rule out another move forward.

race seems to have favorite after favorite lining up to take the place of the horse ahead should something happen. good news for relative figure horses, bad news for longshots.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i don't know if he will, but the horse should vie for favoritism. can't believe people aren't talking about how dominant his sa derby was.

must use in exotics. ..whereas i can find reasons to not use zandon at all. mainly because he could be 15/20th early on. gunnavera pt II

Im fading him hard. He aint no justify... Plus he's feat would be even harder being this his only 3rd race... If he does win, the points system needs a wild revamp... total toss for me. could i be wrong, sure but im ok with it. law of averages are on my side..

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Im fading him hard. He aint no justify... Plus he's feat would be even harder being this his only 3rd race... If he does win, the points system needs a wild revamp... total toss for me. could i be wrong, sure but im ok with it. law of averages are on my side..

did you even watch the sa derby? you couldn't ask for much more of a impressive performance.

what's scary is it looks like there's room to improve

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

did you even watch the sa derby? you couldn't ask for much more of a impressive performance.

what's scary is it looks like there's room to improve

Agreed. Mike didn't even hit him in the stretch. Hand rode him home and it looks like they havent even gotten to the bottom of the horse yet. If he only runs back to his speed figures in his first two races, he should be on the wire. If he improves, and gets a decent trip, he wins going away IMO.

[keithw84]

I thought the ML was way off in several ways. I know it's a thankless job making the ML, so I hate to pile on, but c'mon... the numbers add to almost 140%!

When I started capping the race, I made my own guesses of what the ML would be and here is what I came up with:

Epicenter: 5-1
Zandon: 6-1
Taiba: 6-1
Messier: 8-1
Mo Donegal: 10-1
White Abarrio: 10-1
Cyberknife: 12-1
Smile Happy: 15-1
Tawny Port: 20-1
Tiz The Bomb: 20-1
Charge It: 30-1
Simplification: 30-1
Zozos: 30-1
Barber Road: 50-1
Classic Causeway: 50-1
Crown Pride: 50-1
Ethereal Road: 50-1
Happy Jack: 50-1
Pioneer Of Medina: 50-1
Summer Is Tomorrow: 50-1

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by keithw84

I thought the ML was way off in several ways. I know it's a thankless job making the ML, so I hate to pile on, but c'mon... the numbers add to almost 140%!

When I started capping the race, I made my own guesses of what the ML would be and here is what I came up with:

Epicenter: 5-1
Zandon: 6-1
Taiba: 6-1
Messier: 8-1
Mo Donegal: 10-1
White Abarrio: 10-1
Cyberknife: 12-1
Smile Happy: 15-1
Tawny Port: 20-1
Tiz The Bomb: 20-1
Charge It: 30-1
Simplification: 30-1
Zozos: 30-1
Barber Road: 50-1
Classic Causeway: 50-1
Crown Pride: 50-1
Ethereal Road: 50-1
Happy Jack: 50-1
Pioneer Of Medina: 50-1
Summer Is Tomorrow: 50-1

I think your odds are more spot on than Battaglia's. It will be interesting to see what Taiba goes off at. Anything above 6-1 is a gift.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I think your odds are more spot on than Battaglia's. It will be interesting to see what Taiba goes off at. Anything above 6-1 is a gift.

Taiba is the sort horse that caw teams have to respect. My guess is come post time he'll be at 9/2. (I think we're looking at our post time favorite)

The 12/1 morning line is just irrational nonsense. It's the bi-product of Bob Baffert masquarding as Tim Yakteen.