having a terrible year, thinking of giving it up

[Suff]

Horse Racing.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by mountainman

I've been betting horses since I was 10, and the absolute only way I can grind consistent profit is to focus year after year on just one track, sit in creepy dark, almost vacant simulcast centers day after day watching every race intently for the slightest trip or bias nuance, while passing race after race after race....

And even then, my plus margin ain't anything sexy. Not considering all of my time that it eats. And I am much like the classic alcoholic- fighting a constant urge to abandon all discipline and chug the whole bottle.

If I gave in to action bets or even attempted to play tracks with which I'm not intimately familiar, I would get VAPORIZED.

Oddly enough, I've become more open-minded with advancing age to new ideas and fresh spins on old ones. And have finally learned that my mind (and even experience) can work against me by seizing on and contorting certain info and factors, ones that I'm fond of and familiar with and that affirm my belief system.


In other words, sometimes I see what I WANT to see when looking a race over. Some of Jason's posts really drove that home for me, but overcoming cognitive bias is much easier said than done.

I have to agree with Mark's comments about focusing on one track or one related circuit. Sounds like the advice of the best players from before my childhood. I don't if that's right or not, but my best year(s) were when I specialized on one or two tracks.

Half-smoke. It would be an interesting test to see you post 10 or 20 of your best bets in the selections thread pre-race, and why you picked them. Then let some of handicappers offer their take on why they worked or didn't work.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

I have to agree with Mark's comments about focusing on one track or one related circuit. Sounds like the advice of the best players from before my childhood. I don't if that's right or not, but my best year(s) were when I specialized on one or two tracks.

The alternative to specialize in a race type. Then you can focus on multiple tracks, but only a handful of races at each track.

[omar2]

Half Smoke, I can help you.
Contact me via my email address and I will turn you into a winning handicapper before the derby on May 7. I have the right tools and the know how to use them. nbroat@yahoo.com

P.S. I will not discuss my work on a public forum, period!

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by omar2

Half Smoke, I can help you.
Contact me via my email address and I will turn you into a winning handicapper before the derby on May 7. I have the right tools and the know how to use them. nbroat@yahoo.com

P.S. I will not discuss my work on a public forum, period!

Neil?
Is that you?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by omar2

Half Smoke, I can help you.
Contact me via my email address and I will turn you into a winning handicapper before the derby on May 7. I have the right tools and the know how to use them. nbroat@yahoo.com

P.S. I will not discuss my work on a public forum, period!

All these years...and you never once offered to help me...what am I chopped liver?

Don't answer that.

[formula_2002]

jeff, with respect to the following what is the roi when eliminating the top two or three winners

Screenshot of my own tickets broken out by Negative UDM Count from the Hist section of the document about three quarters of the way down from the top:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/...eportGen02.jpg

[PressThePace]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

There are 2 separate concepts here. One is cashing winners and the other is uncovering value. I believe with all the AI work done that studying history gets you winners, but studying different angles of which horses are near the peak of their form cycle will get you value. You'll need value to bet profitably. And there are a ton of ways to interpret form cycle. Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

I'm all in on this sentiment. I would also add that it could be interpreted as improvement. There is still value to be had in projecting improvement, whether it be through form, trips, trainer changes, distance, surface, etc...

[omar2]

Yes it is Dave.

[BettinBilly]

It's amazing having a forum for this when you truly need help. When I first started, the only thing I had was a few books and the guys at OTB and the track, neither of whom were really "helpful".

I can remember in one of my early losing streaks, I tried chasing the losses by only betting longshot horses to SHOW. You can guess how that turned out.

[Bustin Stones]

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

It's amazing having a forum for this when you truly need help. When I first started, the only thing I had was a few books and the guys at OTB and the track, neither of whom were really "helpful".

I can remember in one of my early losing streaks, I tried chasing the losses by only betting longshot horses to SHOW. You can guess how that turned out.

I take offense to your claim that I didn't help. I told you to bet the gray on a rainy day and to bet horses that take a crap during warm ups. It's science.

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

I take offense to your claim that I didn't help. I told you to bet the gray on a rainy day and to bet horses that take a crap during warm ups. It's science.

Sorry. I had forgotten this sage advice.

[andicap]

One issue I have with betting nowadays is that it really pays to be very tight with math and technology (e.g., MS Access) to steer you to the best value in a race.

On another board, a poster talked about using R factors and normalization of factor values to suss the winners from a data base. Yeah, I flunked calc and probability.

Another reason (on top of many) I have pretty given up playing the races except on an occasional recreational level.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The problem with becoming profitable with racing, as I see it, is the total lack of quality tools at our disposal to craft a long term, winning strategy.

When it comes to trading the equity markets, which many have rightly compared to betting on horses, there are a wealth of tools at ones disposal. Commercially available software that can easily download DECADES of data in seconds that you can in turn analyze and backtest and craft a strategy.

How many commercially available pieces of software (along with data sources) are there for doing the same when it comes to racing? And more importantly, MODERN, advanced, AFFORDABLE pieces of software?

For many people, including myself, this is what it would take to become profitable. Something that I can sit here with for weeks and months...easily testing various ideas and strategies over years of data. Thousands and thousands and thousands of races at a time.

Certain people don't need this to be profitable, but I am not one of them. These kinds of people are blessed with an ability that I don't have. And what I require doesn't really exist at the moment.

This is my concise perspective on the state of the game. I could go on, but my time is limited this morning.

The best quality tool we have is just above and between the ears.

[aaron]

This was an interesting thread. The thing I am not sure of is are you talking about coming out ahead for a given year or making a living. These are two vastly different things. In my opinion, you can make some mistakes and if you are a good player you can come out ahead. If you are doing it for a living you can't make mistakes. Also,the few people I knew who were able to do it for a living had a feel for the track and saw things the average or good player didn't. I have seen players be successful and then fall a part. The real pro's know when to step back and when to fire. At one time the best players played just one track. I don't know if that is the case today, perhaps someone would like to comment on that. Ernie Dahlmann who was a very successful player and at one time posted on this site could probably explain the game better than most.