taiba @ 12-1 is ridiculously high

[classhandicapper]

These very lightly raced horses are difficult for me to handle from a value perspective. Normally being lightly raced is an advantage because you are more likely to move forward, but the conditions of the Derby are so unique it’s more of a question mark given the way training for the race has changed anyway. At 10-1 I would have used him, but I left him off at 5-1.

The CA horse I felt very comfortable tossing was Messier. The pace was likely to be fast. He got caught by Taiba and Slow Down Andy in races where he was used. I had a tough time imagining him getting involved at any point and holding off the closers at 10F.

The 3 horses that got bet that I left off were Taiba, Messier, and Mo Donegal (who I thought faced weaker in the Wood). At least I got that part of the race right, while watching an impossible horse beat me.

[Bullet Plane]

Well,

I think Mo Donegal ran a good race in here. It was very close finish with the top 7 finishing within 5 lengths of each other. Mo had a wider trip into the stretch turn which left him with too much to do from the outside. He was only 3.5 lengths back at the finish.

Of those top seven all were deep closers except Epicenter who was mid pack. The only mid pack survivor.

Messier hung on for second up to the mile. Which at that pace was admirable.

Because of the pace, I don't know if we can take much from this race. Except that Epicenter looked the best to me.

But I wouldn't make too harsh a judgement of the early horses that got fried. I remember Point Given getting cooked mid pack and coming back to win with authority in numerous subsequent races.

This kind of reminds me of the Mine That Bird win, except he didn't need an exceptionally fast pace. Pioneer of the Nile was 3rd early and was second. Musket Man midpack, and 4th was Papa Clem who was 4th at the half. The quarter was 22 and 4. the half 47 and one vs 21 and 3 and 45 and one for this race.

So, my initial opinion on Rich Strike is that he was advantaged by the pace. And while better than I thought, I don't think he is going to beat these again on the square.

[vtec]

agreed, this race is a toss. Still believe Taiba will eventually be the best of this crop.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by vtec

agreed, this race is a toss. Still believe Taiba will eventually be the best of this crop.

Maybe this will be a good test case for whether rushing a horse like this has lasting negative impacts.

I know those CA races were fast, but even after the fact, the quality of those CA horses is not clear to me. I’ve been saying that for awhile.

Messier’s big win was bias aided. He lost to Slow Down Andy (hardly a monster) when pressed. IMO Forbidden Kingdom is very fast, but he’s probably more of a sprinter that benefited from a couple of speed favoring tracks than he is a quality miler/router. He also may have come out of the SA Derby with an issue. I’m not sure that SA Derby race was as good as it was fast.

[Someday Silent]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Hope Taiba takes a ton of money. Either everything we know about derby handicapping is a lie or the points system is a complete failure if this horse wins.

Rich Strike's victory doesn't do much to enhance the points system status either.

BUT... It's nice to see a horse with seven previous races break through and win in this era of "oh crap we can't risk losing so let's keep the horse in his stall as much as possible"