Beyer and Privman - Derby chat

[Parkview_Pirate]

YouTube (Short URL)

Looks like Andy Beyer likes Florida Derby winner White Abarrio, offering some value as an overlooked horse. Some 'cappers have been dissing this horse, which reminds me a bit of 1990, when Unbridled was dismissed by some for being "too slow". As the trainer remarked, "time only counts when you're in jail." Unbridled crushed the KY Derby field, with an amazing inside-outside ride by Craig Perret.

Beyer also had some other interesting comments, as he and Privman disagreed on whether or not Taiba should even be in the race, and about the poor rail bias at GP on Florida Derby Day.

I also got a chuckle from Beyer's comments related to Smile Happy and sire Runhappy - stating the sire has been the subject of "unprecedented" promotion by the connections (true), and as a sprinter there is a question of whether or not he can produce classic distance offspring. But I thought it was in one of Beyer's books where he was critical of the prevailing view of a champion 2YO that was retired due to injury, and his offspring were at first thought they couldn't go past a mile - and then they did....(Native Dancer?)

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

https://youtu.be/d5GUq9ZuB_k

Looks like Andy Beyer likes Florida Derby winner White Abarrio, offering some value as an overlooked horse. Some 'cappers have been dissing this horse, which reminds me a bit of 1990, when Unbridled was dismissed by some for being "too slow". As the trainer remarked, "time only counts when you're in jail." Unbridled crushed the KY Derby field, with an amazing inside-outside ride by Craig Perret.

Unbridled came home very fast in the Blue Grass that year, covering the final three panels in 36.8. Throw in the Raise A Native line, strong tail female, and the Buckpasser...

White Abarrio doesn't have those qualities, but I won't try too hard talking someone out of a FL Derby winner at long odds.

[GaryG]

I saw Beyer and Privman doing a seminar at Santa Anita in the 80s when Privman was with a local paper. Andy was dismissive of some of his opinions and Privman seemed intimidated.

[dballard125]

Beyer is Bill Waltons doppelganger

[boys at tosconova]

histake on taiba is a joke, but white abarrio is solidly in the top 5

[Aerocraft67]

Raw notes on the session:

Beyer opens a "I just don't know" sentiment. The field is so lightly raced compared with runners of yore, ya just can't tell.

On the pace: "i think people are going to be surprised by how fast it is."

Derby point system has produced a field of frontrunners.
Although this year will be a little less speed oriented.

Privman—will the riders anticipate a hot pace and pull back? [I didn't get a clear response to this]

Beyer: definitely the frontrunner

Epicenter should be favorite. Zandon, meh.

Even competition.

White Abarrio good as any, overlooked. Holy Bull as good a prep as any. Tough to make a fig for that one.

Privman—Zandon. Shot: Simplification. Tough trip Holy Bull, sneaky good Florida Derby. Beyer not convinced of any of it. Outraged he has just one stakes win—but not shocked if Zandon wins.

Underneath—Epicenter. Not very clever, confesses Beyer.

Beyer on Yakteen/Baffert entries: Taiba: It was terrible to run him in Santa Anita derby after one start. Running in Kentucky Derby after second start doubly wrong. Best horse in field. Best horse of generation. Don't ask a horse to do more than he's ready at the given stage of his career. Billionaire Owner wants him in. Trainer Woody Stephens would have never had that.

Privman: But the game has changed. Taiba has the fastest figs in the field. Is it not justified running him?

Beyer: No. Gotta have fitness and experience to win at 1 1/4.

Privman cites Cyberknife, Crown Pride, underneath. Latter trained well here. Beyer likes the Japanese shippers. Fig [of last Crown Pride race?] was a 93 if you had to guess, would back off betting him here, but not surprised if he does well.

Q&A

Horses don't run enough. They were well developed stars back in the day. Not ready to deliver maximum effort after 4–5 starts.

On post position, Privman: Single gate more fair. Who's next to you matters more. Epicenter has to go from 3rd. Beyer: Jockeys can overcome inside posts.

That was about halfway through and the questions got pretty fundamental (not that there's anything wrong with that).

[metro]

White Abarrio another looking for that outside, stalking the speed kind of trip, as is basically half the field:

Messier
Crown Pride
Charge It
Pioneer of Medina
Taiba
Simplification
White Abarrio
Cyberknife
Tawny Port
Zozos

Just don't think he can pull away from all in that cluster and still hold off the closers.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by GaryG

I saw Beyer and Privman doing a seminar at Santa Anita in the 80s when Privman was with a local paper. Andy was dismissive of some of his opinions and Privman seemed intimidated.

Some things don't change. Beyer's approach maybe one of them. I like his comments 'cause he doesn't hold back, doesn't have to be polite to the connections - though for the most part he is.

For years and years his Derby pick didn't win. Last year he had Medina Spirit(*), and Beyer mentions the odds are "infinitesimal" he'd pick two $20+ Derby winners in a row.

I thought I heard Privman mention that if White Abarrio does win, then Beyer would be 2 for 45 or so in the Derby, and Andy replied, "yeah, that's about right" while laughing.

I also got a chuckle when they criticized the M/L by Battaglia - I agree it's not too good.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Raw notes on the session:

On the pace: "i think people are going to be surprised by how fast it is."

Beyer: definitely the frontrunner

Boy howdy!

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Raw notes on the session:

Epicenter should be favorite. Zandon, meh.

Privman—Zandon. Shot: Simplification. Tough trip Holy Bull, sneaky good Florida Derby. Beyer not convinced of any of it. Outraged he has just one stakes win—but not shocked if Zandon wins.

Underneath—Epicenter. Not very clever, confesses Beyer.

Beyer on Yakteen/Baffert entries: Taiba: It was terrible to run him in Santa Anita derby after one start. Running in Kentucky Derby after second start doubly wrong. Best horse in field. Best horse of generation. Don't ask a horse to do more than he's ready at the given stage of his career. Billionaire Owner wants him in. Trainer Woody Stephens would have never had that.

White Abarrio was nowhere, but they got a lot right.

[classhandicapper]

Not that White Abbarrio was going to hit the board, but I think you can safely throw his race out. IMO, any horse that was either close to that pace or hung wide trying to hold position was being used even if they were off the pace. I didn’t do my trips yet, but his color made him easy to pick out. I’d say he was around 5 wide 1st turn, 6 or 7 wide 2nd turn, and out even wider. You aren’t going to do much with that trip even if you aren’t being used much while out there.

I used him, Smile Happy, and Simplification with the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. I thought the latter ran quite well.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Not that White Abbarrio was going to hit the board, but I think you can safely throw his race out. IMO, any horse that was either close to that pace or hung wide trying to hold position was being used even if they were off the pace. I didn’t do my trips yet, but his color made him easy to pick out. I’d say he was around 5 wide 1st turn, 6 wide 2nd turn, and out even wider. You aren’t going to do much with that trip even if you aren’t being used much while out there.

WHITE ABARRIO got hungout five wide whilst midpack around the first turn, inched closer seven wide and outside of foes while under heavy urging around the far turn but spun into the lane nine wide and faded between horses in upper stretch.

Agree. Completely tossing that race when looking at his future races.

https://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRace...20220507&RN=12