Bad Trip Handicapping Service

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Light

I flag the trouble the horse had in relation to the past performance line I am using for the horse .If the horse had trouble in its last race and its sr is worse than 2 back without trouble that seems like a legitimate excuse to use the race 2 back if its conditions were somewhat similar to today's.

Interesting. Thanks.

[dnlgfnk]

Has anyone thought to view every horse negatively? And let expected or actual price be the lens through which you view a horse's trip, working your way back through the field from highest to lowest odds? Keeping in place the negative view of the favorites, while entertaining what the longshot could do by envisioning the possibilities of his potential beneficial trip? Proceeding until someone in the field, often at around the 15-1 to 5-1 mark begins to resonate?

These physical impediments like blocked or checked are somewhat infrequent and exaggerated, as many have stated. Within the inner dynamics of especially pace and position on the track (not always "wide"), there are multiple difficult scenarios in a race to speculate upon when a horse runs again, not involving physical contact or wide sweeps on the turn.

[CheckMark]

Great thread

I have recently been keeping track notes for biases in a notebook which usually consists of 1-1 1/2 sentences labeling what running styles were biased on Dirt/Turf/All Weather along with what posts were aided/disadvantaged

I keep it short just so I can write off multiple tracks and doing it is quite entertaining since you get to see each day what tracks favoured closers or the inside 1-3 posts were disadvantaged etc

If anyone is interested I will discuss it further via pm or email Thanks

[Franco Santiago]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Phantom,

You've just made a wonderful point.

So, here you are doing this wonderful, laborious work and someone else gets many of the same horses simply by looking for those who are "getting bet" today.

This is why so many truly gifted pace handicappers don't do as well as expected: there are just too many ways for other people to wind up on the same horses (despite having no such gift).

Well, I actually think YOU made the point and it is a great one. Oh my.



One time, in 1986 or '87, at the FG, I noted a horse that was 5 wide on the first turn. I bet him back in a route and he got caught about 5 wide again and lost by about 30. I followed him again, and he was entered on Mardi Gras day, but I had parade plans. So I called my barber, who knew a bookie, and I bet $30 on him. After the parades that day, I drove to the track (the only place to get results unless you pinned your ears to the radio). Back then, FG's win bets were $3.00. I went to the results board in the grandstand and about fell over. My horse had won and paid about $350.00 to win (for a $3.00 bet)! I collected from my barber the following Tuesday and he told me the book wouldn't be needing my bets any more! What a fond memory.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Franco Santiago

Well, I actually think YOU made the point and it is a great one. Oh my.



One time, in 1986 or '87, at the FG, I noted a horse that was 5 wide on the first turn. I bet him back in a route and he got caught about 5 wide again and lost by about 30. I followed him again, and he was entered on Mardi Gras day, but I had parade plans. So I called my barber, who knew a bookie, and I bet $30 on him. After the parades that day, I drove to the track (the only place to get results unless you pinned your ears to the radio). Back then, FG's win bets were $3.00. I went to the results board in the grandstand and about fell over. My horse had won and paid about $350.00 to win (for a $3.00 bet)! I collected from my barber the following Tuesday and he told me the book wouldn't be needing my bets any more! What a fond memory.

That's a GREAT story!

My point was - just like you said above - making a discovery because you are actually looking for discoveries.

[jahura2]

Originally Posted by teddy

I wish someone would watch all the races in the major tracks each day and put the horses in race watch and send them out Daily to subs. I did it for a month and had win after win. Wide trips were the best. If anyone wants to do this I personally would pay up to a 100 bucks a month. Should provide about 5 plays a day or more. NO body I know does this.. Could be a opportunity for one of you retired guys to get a ton of subs. Patreon or whatever.. Maybe 3 the big 3 tracks. Would take you an hour a day I think.. route races are the best cause they get wide for 2 turns and then next out they pop.

During the recently ended Keeneland Spring meet. The track provided a new service from a group calle "Trip Notes Pros" it was pretty helpful throughout the meet for me. It looks like they charge 14.00 a card , but to get their product recognized either Keeneland paid for it for the meet or TNP provided it.
I will most likely use it again especially on bigger racing days.

[tbwinner]

Question

Is there a program that I can keep trip and paddock notes on specific horses for a specific race? I know there is stable mail but that is cumbersome. Overlaid in PPs would be great. Formulator?

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by tbwinner

Question

Is there a program that I can keep trip and paddock notes on specific horses for a specific race? I know there is stable mail but that is cumbersome. Overlaid in PPs would be great. Formulator?

That is what I would suggest if you are handicapping a lot and like to use Formulator

Another idea is to use Excel and have headings like
Horse Last Race Last Race Note Next Racew/Conditions etc

That way you can keep track of multiple horses and they are all in 1 spot plus you can print them for easy filing!

Another final idea is to keep track using a notebook or binder w/blank paper

Hope this helps and Good Luck with your studies!

[jefftune]

Originally Posted by teddy

I wish someone would watch all the races in the major tracks each day and put the horses in race watch and send them out Daily to subs. I did it for a month and had win after win. Wide trips were the best. If anyone wants to do this I personally would pay up to a 100 bucks a month. Should provide about 5 plays a day or more. NO body I know does this.. Could be a opportunity for one of you retired guys to get a ton of subs. Patreon or whatever.. Maybe 3 the big 3 tracks. Would take you an hour a day I think.. route races are the best cause they get wide for 2 turns and then next out they pop.

I do this for harness racing. Usually just check the charts but sometimes watch replays. I keep a horses-to-watch list on those that had tough first-over trips or got shuffled.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I watch replays of every NYRA race and make notes in the charts (not for every horse, but for those that had trouble etc etc) and put runners I want to watch in my stable mail.
I look for wide trips (focusing on those who were wide into the 1st turn on the inner turf courses, those who made a wide bid on the 2nd turn when the pace was quickening), and those who gained ground during a fast final fraction.
Other factors are noted, of course...such as a bad break or traffic trouble, but I've noticed these runners all seem to get bet in their next race.

Overlays are rare.

NYRA is probably a bit tougher to fool the public because of the excellent TV and print media coverage plus the coverage in-house by Andy and the rest of the team on SNY, plus analysis on the NYRA and DRF websites. You have several people who are at the track every day giving out trips in their analysis.

[Parkview_Pirate]

A wide trip IMHO is often a boat ride - a workout. Whether or not the connections "try" in the next effort depends on the context of the prep race, today's competition, odds, etc.

It's more "art" than science. Trip 'capping has to be integrated pretty tightly with trainer patterns to produce profits over the long haul, and it's tougher now with so many DB players slicing and dicing the ROIs to death.

It's also one of the most underutilized approaches to handicapping, due to the effort involved to identify and track bad trips. I only do it on a handful of horses I see during the live race cards, and about 1/3 of the time they are a horse I bet on and was watching anyway.

The end result is a small group of horses I'll follow for a couple of races after their bad trip incident, but it's no where close to 5 per day. More like 3 per month.