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04-11-2022, 09:42 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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speed often underlaid_________?
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this is just a general observation of mine and not backed by any statistics
just seems to me that the speed so often gets caught and/or fades and many times fades badly; and that the public seems to love speed - causing overlays on others
and I'm not just talking about cheap speed - also the classier nags
just wanted to hear some opinions about this - many of you guys are experts - more expert than me_________thanks
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 04-11-2022 at 09:43 AM.
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04-11-2022, 02:14 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 742
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I agree. The General Public is obsessed with speed.
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04-11-2022, 02:26 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 784
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3 things to consider:
firstly, if you are in the lead, your opponent is spotting you distance and the longer they wait, the less distance to overcome it
secondly, you cannot block a horse if you are positioned behind that horse
thirdly, being part of the lead generally gives you a shorter route to the wire
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04-11-2022, 04:17 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 742
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bustin Stones
3 things to consider:
firstly, if you are in the lead, your opponent is spotting you distance and the longer they wait, the less distance to overcome it
secondly, you cannot block a horse if you are positioned behind that horse
thirdly, being part of the lead generally gives you a shorter route to the wire
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True but as the man said, these horses are often underlaid I'd rather have a horse that lays just off he speed.
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04-11-2022, 06:06 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 784
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For the horse that's spotted others the lead more has to go right to win. Which is not a problem in a 2 horse race. But, we do not know which of the trailers is the one catching the break of not being blocked or not suffering from the longer route or not able to make up the spot. So, the laggards are entitled to more generous odds. If you happen to pick the right one, it's all good.
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04-11-2022, 06:43 PM
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#6
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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I love the comme'nt The Mig makes frequently on ADR, about being in front "They have to go where I've already been."
It's amazing how many riders today just don't get it.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-11-2022, 09:05 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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this is just a general observation of mine and not backed by any statistics
just seems to me that the speed so often gets caught and/or fades and many times fades badly; and that the public seems to love speed - causing overlays on others
and I'm not just talking about cheap speed - also the classier nags
just wanted to hear some opinions about this - many of you guys are experts - more expert than me_________thanks
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It depends on the pace scenario.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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04-12-2022, 12:29 AM
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#8
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,297
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lefty359
I agree. The General Public is obsessed with speed.
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becuase it is IMPORTANT IN EVERY RACE RRUN
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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04-12-2022, 10:27 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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____________
it's only one race and it doesn't prove anything - but anyway
Keeneland 4/10 - race 7 - the Palisades stakes - 5.5 furlongs
Twilight Gleaming was made the 4/5 fave - he had won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at 5 furlongs but he lost some ground in the stretch - now he had to go longer
Slipstream who won the race - was let go at more than 5/2 -
he finished 6th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile mile but he was only beaten by about 2.5 lengths and he gained ground in the stretch
Slipstream had a higher highest Brisnet speed rating by IIRC 6 points
Slipstream had won the Futurity Stakes at Belmont at 6 furlongs
it seemed obvious to me, and I realize many may disagree, that Slipstream should have been the fave
and up against Slipstream and 5 others, 2 of whom were bet down to about 6/1 and 4/1 there was no way imo Twilight Gleaming deserved 4/5
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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04-12-2022, 10:56 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,761
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speed is a big weapon when it comes to horse racing. with the CAW in full gear, you don't find the overlay that once got with the back of the pack horses.
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04-12-2022, 11:46 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Most players start scanning for "lone" speeds about 2 seconds after cracking the form. And lots of them believe they invented the concept.
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04-12-2022, 01:57 PM
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#12
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Lone speed is overbet. Speed is not.
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04-13-2022, 10:29 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Speed Figures are overbet. I agree with CJ, lone speed or the obvious main speed are overbet. But generally speaking, over the long run, you're going to tear up less losing tickets if you play mostly speed horses that aren't the favorite. Or to put it another way, horses that have speed and are also overlays.
Just because a horse is an E or EP type doesn't mean that it will be on the lead. Many times these horses leave well and sit right behind the frontrunners, then inherit the lead when the pacesetter backs up. They just get better trips than closers.
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04-19-2022, 01:34 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lefty359
I agree. The General Public is obsessed with speed.
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If the main speed of the race is underlaid, that’s means there are better prices on the other contenders.
So I know this is a radical suggestion.
But if you have accurate pace numbers, chuck the top speed in the race
And concentrate on some of the others.
Allan
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04-19-2022, 02:09 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
becuase it is IMPORTANT IN EVERY RACE RRUN
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I agree, however this game is about money not picking winners.
Why bet on an underlay? Because he is the controlling speed?
I don’t want to bet any (like zero) underlays.
Allan
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