Horses to watch: Script.

[classhandicapper]

The Beyer figure for the race was a 62.

I suspect that extremely fast pace did more than take a toll on the top two runners (and the 3rd that dropped back) even if they were impacted most. I suspect it bottomed out a few others that were trying to keep up during the early part too. Virtually the entire field ran slower than I would guessed given their prior figures and the fact that they were all lightly raced and likely to improve.

[the little guy]

54 Beyer for Script on Wednesday.

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

54 Beyer for Script on Wednesday.

Amazing part for me is the horse went off at a miserly 5-2 despite there being much faster horses on paper in the race. Sometimes horses to watch can be watched for negative reasons too.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The Beyer figure for the race was a 62.

I suspect that extremely fast pace did more than take a toll on the top two runners (and the 3rd that dropped back) even if they were impacted most. I suspect it bottomed out a few others that were trying to keep up during the early part too. Virtually the entire field ran slower than I would guessed given their prior figures and the fact that they were all lightly raced and likely to improve.

The winner is going to get a 14 point boost over the final time on TimeformUS because of the pace.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

The winner is going to get a 14 point boost over the final time on TimeformUS because of the pace.

You mean, unlike Classhandicapper, you didn't elevate Script for his brutal trip sitting well back behind the contested pace? So, once again unlike Classhandicapper, you aren't leaving him on your Derby contender's list?

Me either.

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

You mean, unlike Classhandicapper, you didn't elevate Script for his brutal trip sitting well back behind the contested pace? So, once again unlike Classhandicapper, you aren't leaving him on your Derby contender's list?

Me either.

I have my Derby future bet at 10,000 to 1 on eBay right now for $1.99.

Where as the final time figures (raw, no variant) are only seven points apart for the top 3 (85, 83, 78), the pace adjusted figures span 16 points (99, 95, 83).

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

I have my Derby future bet at 10,000 to 1 on eBay right now for $1.99.

Where as the final time figures (raw, no variant) are only seven points apart for the top 3 (85, 83, 78), the pace adjusted figures span 16 points (99, 95, 83).

Oklahoma Derby ( you know....the real Derby )?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

You mean, unlike Classhandicapper, you didn't elevate Script for his brutal trip sitting well back behind the contested pace? So, once again unlike Classhandicapper, you aren't leaving him on your Derby contender's list?

Me either.

I know it's hard for you, but you should try to stop making a fool yourself.

I realize even a one trick pony like you can see that the pace was fast and the final time was slow.

But a legitimate question is why the race was slower than expected for the horses that sat off the pace too.

We know they benefitted from the fast pace in front of them in terms of their chances of catching the from runners. But that does not necessarily mean it benefited their speed figures.

There are two separate things going on in these situations.

One is the impact of the pace on the result.

One is the impact of the pace on the times.

The problem is that an extreme pace can impact all the horses negatively in terms of final time, but some worse than others. That creates a flow advantage, but not necessarily a speed figure result that matches the flow.

That's the question I am raising.

There's no doubt the top 2 were much better than the rest and capable of running faster, but it's also quite possible some of the off the pace horses were used early just trying to stay in the race and will run a little faster next time also. They just weren't nearly good enough to beat the top 2 who were much the best.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I have my Derby future bet at 10,000 to 1 on eBay right now for $1.99.

Where as the final time figures (raw, no variant) are only seven points apart for the top 3 (85, 83, 78), the pace adjusted figures span 16 points (99, 95, 83).

1. You now how much I respect your opinion on all these issues, but I am 100% certain this thread was never about identifying a Derby contender. He was just trying to identify a maiden winner he thought could turn into a very nice horse because of the way the connections handle their horses and what he saw visually. I went along for the ride because I didn't understand the criticism and understood the premise.

2. If I am reading your figures correctly, you upgraded Script's figure even though he sat off the pace. Assuming I am understanding that correctly....

That is 100% the scenario I was saying was a possibility in the prior 2 posts. The top 2 were obviously tons the best, but the less talented horses behind them may have also been used up a bit chasing that extremely fast pace. Perhaps a few should be upgraded in terms of speed figures also. It would just be by less than the top two and explain the all around slower than expected race. Script earned a 61 and then a 54 on Beyer, but that 54 Beyer may have been just as good as the 61. It's tough to measure exactly. That was the point I was making.

He's still a very slow horse in stakes terms and maybe he didn't deserve a thread, but running 3rd in a 100k stake in your 3rd start is not chopped liver. He's a 2YO. He has a LOT of time to develop, get faster, and compete against better like the OP speculated he might.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

1. but I am 100% certain this thread was never about identifying a Derby contender. He was just trying to identify a maiden winner he thought could turn into a very nice horse because of the way the connections handle their horses and what he saw visually.

You are correct.
Very correct at that.
I never said/implied Script was going to the Derby.......or was going to appear in the starting gate in the likes of the Fountain of Youth or the Wood.
If I would of thought Script was that type, I would of started the thread in the Triple Crown Trail section of the board.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by cj

Sometimes horses to watch can be watched for negative reasons too.

Really ?
Whatever does it for you...

[geroge.burns99]

This is my first post since after Script early races....

His Wed race was creditable......winners on Wed had to be near the lead....

he being 4 1/2 lts behind compromised his chances and besides the 2 best horses in the race came in 2-1....

The time of the race was no big deal being almost identical to the lesser races of the day....

I see him as a alw or maybe small stakes kind of a horse ....

A Derby type.....mostly likely...NO

Mike

[cj]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Really ?
Whatever does it for you...

Of course. You've never watched a race and thought there was a horse you definitely wanted to play against next time?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

Of course. You've never watched a race and thought there was a horse you definitely wanted to play against next time?

He has....he just mistakes it for horses he wants to bet the next time. Some people's minds work differently:-)

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by the little guy

He has....he just mistakes it for horses he wants to bet the next time. Some people's minds work differently:-)

Do you ever stop bitching about me ?
Geez man......move on.