Value

[sammy the sage]

If I could get fixed ML 2/1 on horse that's going to go off at 3/5 I could retire...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

With that being said I have very little doubt there are off the grid and innovative tidbits of info around, obscure factors that pop up only once in a great while. These factors will carry inherent value all on their own and could allow a handicapper to show a profit long-term without considering the odds. I suspect those tidbits of information require much more digging and such keen observation that few would consider the returns worthwhile given how rarely these kinds of factors will be decisive. It would amount to playing not so much for a living but to prove winning straight up is still possible. IMO there are far better things to do with my time these days.

That sums up my view.

I work ridiculously hard to find tidbits of information and different ways of looking at things so I have insights with enough inherent value on their own to at least get me in the ballpark. Then I try to add value by doing some subjective handicapping and praying I have 2 insights into the same race (1 positive and 1 negative).

There's no way it's worth the time and effort for me. I can't find enough plays doing what I am doing now and I couldn't possibly do much more work trying to find more plays. And this is after automating a lot of things that most people do manually.

I love the sport and intellectual challenge. So I continue.

[Dave Schwartz]

I don't have a horse in this race, but I am going to share something that I know about Nitro.

To the best of my knowledge, I have never had a personal conversation or exchange with him, other than something simple and social on this forum.

Despite the fact that his claims sound more than a bit farfetched, he and I have mutual acquaintances that have my utmost respect. They have told me that Nitro is the real deal; that his approach to the game actually works.

This is completely anecdotal and I have absolutely zero proof of this. But, as stated above, it has come to me from two very valued sources who happened to bring up tote watching in conversation over the last year or so.

Do I believe +45% ROI? I admit that's a difficult one to believe , especially across all wagers, but perhaps some subset.

As for being rich from such a consistent results, it does seem that would be the ultimate outcome.

However...
Having the winning approach is one thing, while having the three B's to make it all work - Balls, Brains, and Bankroll - is something else altogether.

For all I know, what he does is purely theoretical and he never makes a bet.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

They have told me that Nitro is the real deal; that his approach to the game actually works.

For all I know, what he does is purely theoretical and he never makes a bet.

I can't get a read on what appears to be a contradiction....

[formula_2002]

Just a word about Nitro's picks.

He has posted many many live picks. It would be worth looking at his picks and results. I have, and it seems he has one of the best, if not the best profits I have ever see posted.

[Nitro]

So in other words, over the past 5 years all I did was analyze and document every race that both tracks in Hong Kong offered. I simply stayed up all night (morning) on the weekends and also woke up early on Wed. mornings so that I could just apply some theoretical methodology? Common sense would say otherwise!

In fact, the posting of preliminary and live selections for HK also included my detailed scheme for betting them, particularly for the Dutch Win bets. These type of bets produced the 45% profit margin I mentioned and documented.

No, I’m not a 6 figure winner at this point, but we all have our goals. Based on the success that I’ve experienced and shared on this forum when it comes to HK racing, I anticipate that my future betting amounts will in all likelihood also escalate at a comfortable rate.

[ReplayRandall]

Nitro, just honestly tell us what your ROI is....The profit margin of 45% is your dutching methodology and confuses those that think it is your ROI.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Nitro, just honestly tell us what your ROI is....The profit margin of 45% is your dutching methodology and confuses those that think it is your ROI.

I’m not quite sure why there would be any confusion about calculating a profit.
Amount wagered - $100.00
Profit - $45.00
45 / 100 x 100 = 45%

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...147165&page=53
Post #795 - Points out the results of my 3-entry Dutching method by indicating the overall profit margins for both Sha Tin and Happy Valley.
All of the selections for the results of these Dutch plays were posted BEFORE the races were run.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I’m not quite sure why there would be any confusion about calculating a profit.
Amount wagered - $100.00
Profit - $45.00
45 / 100 x 100 = 45%

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...147165&page=53
Post #795 - Points out the results of my 3-entry Dutching method by indicating the overall profit margins for both Sha Tin and Happy Valley.
All of the selections for the results of these Dutch plays were posted BEFORE the races were run.

What is your overall net ROI, with win dutch, quinellas and triples(Tris.) bets all included?....1.05..1.10...1.15 ?

[JM98]

is there no way you can get on with the firms in the UK?

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

What is your overall net ROI, with win dutch, quinellas and triples(Tris.) bets all included?....1.05..1.10...1.15 ?

He already explained, every $100 he bets, he wins $45 .


Its possible the bet is USD and the Win is HKD, which would explain a lot.



Getting past that, this would make Benter jealous if not horrified, that he did all that handicapping work, and couldnt even get close to this TOTE only money machine.



Best player ever and we have to assume the mysterious mentor is even BETTER .



Even I'm jealous

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

He already explained, every $100 he bets, he wins $45 .


Its possible the bet is USD and the Win is HKD, which would explain a lot.



Getting past that, this would make Benter jealous if not horrified, that he did all that handicapping work, and couldnt even get close to this TOTE only money machine.



Best player ever and we have to assume the mysterious mentor is even BETTER .



Even I'm jealous

Nope.....His threshold for a dutch bet has to be at a minimum 45% profit margin, or higher, to be playable....What his strike rate and ROI are, are a different matter.

That's why he's not answering what his ROI is.....You got That?

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Nope.....His threshold for a dutch bet has to be at a minimum 45% profit margin, or higher, to be playable....What his strike rate and ROI are, are a different matter.

That's why he's not answering what his ROI is.....You got That?

Uh, no.



Unless you're accusing Nitro of deliberate obfuscation , I take him at his word, as least as far as the claim goes .

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Uh, no.



Unless you're accusing Nitro of deliberate obfuscation , I take him at his word, as least as far as the claim goes .

You don't know what your talking about.....On IGNORE you go.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

You don't know what your talking about.....On IGNORE you go.

One down , 7 billion to go!