The coronavirus

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

...then how do they handle the flu season every year?

Read this article from last year. The answer is, they didn't.



https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-h...-flu-patients/

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Redboard

The big difference Mike is that there is no Covid-19 vaccine shot like there is for the flu. 1,993 have died so far but three weeks ago there were only 12 deaths. So where are we on the curve? Nobody knows.

The flu vaccine rarely stops anybody from getting the flu. It’s a damn joke

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by jk3521

Read this article from last year. The answer is, they didn't.



https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-h...-flu-patients/

So then, really...we should be doing what we are currently doing, every single year. Agree or disagree?

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So then, really...we should be doing what we are currently doing, every single year. Agree or disagree?

The has been talk for years that we would not be able to cope with a pandemic situation because we can't handle normal flu outbreaks. A big uproar ,and then it is quickly forgotten. By mid-summer this too will be forgotten. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

The flu vaccine rarely stops anybody from getting the flu. It’s a damn joke

Spoken like a true uninformed person

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So then, really...we should be doing what we are currently doing, every single year. Agree or disagree?

I posted this article yesterday. The RO, or contagion rate is twice the flu, and most importantly the hospitalization rate is 10 timers as bad. With no simple treatment That's why governors are scrambling for ventilators before it peaks and totally overwhelming health care systems

Looks like shelter in place is slowing the spread but it is too early to know. 20/20 hindsight on previous flus is not applicable. We have the luxury of knowing a full year of numbers on past flu pandemics We are only a few months into this pandemic.
------------------------------
COVID-19 has been compared to the flu. Experts say that's wrong.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-...ry?id=69779116

Some people, including the president of the United States, have said COVID-19 isn't too different from the common flu.
But, according to experts, is COVID-19 actually worse?

The short answer? Yes.

[xtb]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

The flu vaccine rarely stops anybody from getting the flu. It’s a damn joke

I've gotten the flu vaccine exactly one time, 2007. I've had the flu one time as an adult. Yep, 2007.

[xtb]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Spoken like a true uninformed person

Information is not always true.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I don't care WHAT IT IS.

I am TALKING STRICTLY NUMBERS.

Why can hospitals handle HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of admissions every single flu season, and TENS OF THOUSANDS of ICU patients who end up dying...but they can't currently handle what is going on NOW and the last couple of weeks....I've been reading articles all over the place how OVERWHELMED the system is PRESENTLY.

That's the bottom line question.

It's because our entire healthcare system predicts future demand many months out based on past experience.

From there they operate at something close to 1.0 X of predicted future demand.

By 'operate' I mean the number of doctors, nurses, x-ray techs, security guards, rooms, beds, diagnostic equipment, gloves, masks, scalpels, doses of pills on the shelves of their pharmacies, frozen dinners in their freezers, everything -- including ICU beds, bio-hazard protective gear, and ventilators.

They operate at near 1.0 X of anticipated demand to keep costs down.

Imo, PROFIT - not welfare of the patient - has always been the primary objective.

Also, if I am not mistaken - and somebody please jump in and correct me if I am wrong about this --

I have been told many healthcare networks are required by law NOT to operate above statutory levels of X in terms of anticipated demand.

The reasoning behind this is if they operated at 3X anticipated demand they could not be profitable and would be at risk of going out of business.

If such a thing were to happen that would be detrimental to the affected geo-area.

Go back to Jan 01, 2020 - and most of our hospitals were operating at something like 0.97 X to 1.03 X of anticipated demand.

Now, throw a black swan event on top of that --

And suddenly they find themselves operating at (and this is just a guess on my part) something like 0.5 X of anticipated demand for critical areas such as testing, protective gear, ICU beds, and ventilators.

Imo, THAT's why everybody is freaking out.



-jp

.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Again, you're missing the point.

I'm strictly talking numbers and the stories I keep reading about overwhelmed hospitals.

I'm not interested in whether or not there is a vaccine...having a vaccine doesn't stop hundreds of thousands needing hospitalization for the flu every year, nor does it stop tens of thousands from dying.

The question I am asking is...how come hospitals, EVERY YEAR, don't cry out for supplies and talk about being overwhelmed...but with our current COVID caseload of 100,000 active infections (that we know about) and only 1,800 or so deaths, I keep reading that the healthcare system is ALREADY OVERLOADED, some beyond repair.

I'm not talking about the future...2 weeks, 3 weeks, 4 weeks down the line...I'm talking about NOW and last week...that's when these stories about the hospital system BEING OVERLOADED RIGHT NOW started appearing.

And I ask myself, if the hospital system is ALREADY OVERLOADED (as we're being told), and it's only going to get worse...then how do they handle the flu season every year?

Sorry Mike, I was watching Gulfstream simultaneously with posting here. My bad.

I haven’t been following the hospital shortage situation. Wife and I stopped watching the MSM several days ago. What got me over the top was Cuomo. The guy holds a 2-hour press conference to say what he can say in seven minutes. Did he ever announce that infected New Yorkers should not travel to another state for the purpose of getting away from the shelter-in-place order he issued? I never heard him say anything about that, maybe he has since.

I get my updates from my governor, Ron DeSantis of Florida. He gives about a 20-minute update on YouTube every other day, which includes anything important. He has left decisions about home quarantines up to local officials, whose restrictions have run the gamut from mild, including allowing beaches to remain open to the public, to severe, including numerous counties’ stay-at-home orders.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

The flu vaccine rarely stops anybody from getting the flu. It’s a damn joke

It worked for me - I used to get it every years, some year really bad.

Last 10-12 years,never worse than a cold, if that.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by xtb

Information is not always true.

You sound like Giuliani with his "the truth is not the truth!"

[Tom]

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Lotta people hospitalized with Flu.....

[Tom]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

You sound like Giuliani with his "the truth is not the truth!"

Depends on what "is" is.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by jk3521

The has been talk for years that we would not be able to cope with a pandemic situation because we can't handle normal flu outbreaks. A big uproar ,and then it is quickly forgotten. By mid-summer this too will be forgotten. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

The US was the number 1 ranked country ready for a pandemic in the world.

the thing about pandemics is can you really be ready, I mean what is ready?

I mean is the expectation to buy 200k ventilators every 5 years or so at 40k a pop?

We should have shut down all state and international borders back in early February when it was obvious this would be a world wide thing. Our damn social liberties always get in the way.