Preakness favorite

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Is Cave Rock running? Because if he does, I would assume he would be the best shot to beat Mage after Mage's huge Derby effort.

He worked on March 19th and April 2nd, nothing since. So I think that is a hard no.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Is Cave Rock running? Because if he does, I would assume he would be the best shot to beat Mage after Mage's huge Derby effort.

He hasn't worked in over a month. Who knows if and when we ever see him again

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by the little guy

He hasn't worked in over a month. Who knows if and when we ever see him again

Thanks.

Then:

Let's go Mage!

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by SG4

Too bad about Forte, with him out I imagine something like 2-1 on Mage, 5-2 Two Phil's & 7-2 on First Mission.


I know I'm probably living in a fantasy land of years past, but any chance we can get into the ear of the Forte team & get the Met Mile on their brain? If he's really as healthy as they say he is, then he should be nearly ready to run the race of his life. What would be their plan otherwise, to just sit on him until the Jim Dandy? The timing of the race, the prestige, just a slight cutback in distance & outside of Cody's Wish who's to be scared of in the older division? I think it all makes perfect sense, hoping they start to see it that way & that Forte really is healthy & ready to go soon.

It looks like it's going to be a pretty tough Met, but a few 3yos have done well with the weight break.

I think it depends on what you think of the Florida Derby. The FL Derby looked slow on most figures. If you think Forte's face value figure in that one is a legitimate measure of where he is now, he seems way way too slow. But the pace of the FL Derby was fast. Sometimes the internals of fast paced races cause them to fall apart a bit and even impact horses that were off the pace.

Mage jumped up 11 Beyer points (94 to 105) out of the race and Fort Bragg jumped up 17 points (82 to 99). So maybe Forte is at least a bit better than he looks on figures even though he came from even further back that day. With some further development and getting in light he might fit better than it looks on face value figures.

Note: Cyclone Mischief didn't do much in the Derby and Shaq Diesel was so badly beaten in the FL Derby I don't think much can be learned by how he ran coming out of it).

I'd like to see it, but I doubt they choose the Met. What they do choose will be interesting though. It's not obvious to me.

[SG4]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Smile Happy just ran a 110 Beyer in the Alysheba and Repo Rocks a 109 in the Westchester. Taiba also worked yesterday and is presumably being pointed there. Not that there is any chance Forte would even be considered for the race, or be remotely competitive, but if they actually wanted to cut him back and run on Belmont Day, wouldn't they run in the Woody Stephens?

Those horses aren't bad & they put up some nice figures, but I would hardly call them a pair to be afraid of far as ducking a prestige race goes. Taiba's gotta be a big question mark coming off the Dubai trip too & that non-effort.


I think a cutback from 9f to 7f of the Woody Stephens & then back out to 9f again for the Jim Dandy isn't in anyone's style nowadays. I know it's only a furlong difference, but I think the cutback to a mile would be a lot more palatable for the connections to digest. More so than the distance, I think the Woody Stephens wouldn't make sense cause what would it accomplish for Forte's career? A win or even a solid effort in the Met Mile as a 3yo would be a highlight making moment for a career. A win in the Woody Stephens would be a nice blip.



If you're married to Beyer figures as your yardstick for being competitive, why do you think he's without hope? He ran 100 as a 2yo, has been in that vicinity so far this year with an easy victory & then a hard fought victory with a tough trip, and now he's coming up on his 3rd race of the year to a point where he was primed to move forward. I would think a 104 type performance would be well in his range, and then you factor in a significant weight break & that would put him right on par with the big figures you mentioned earlier.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by SG4

I think a cutback from 9f to 7f of the Woody Stephens & then back out to 9f again for the Jim Dandy isn't in anyone's style nowadays. I know it's only a furlong difference, but I think the cutback to a mile would be a lot more palatable for the connections to digest. More so than the distance, I think the Woody Stephens wouldn't make sense cause what would it accomplish for Forte's career? A win or even a solid effort in the Met Mile as a 3yo would be a highlight making moment for a career. A win in the Woody Stephens would be a nice blip.

Each individual race need not be a career highlight. Some races might serve the horse as a means to advance toward future career highlights.

Fly So Free, Coronado's Quest, and Bayern were all on the Derby trail in the winter/spring and all used the Riva Ridge/Woody Stephens as a mid-season "reboot" and all ended up taking major two turn races in the summer and/or fall.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Each individual race need not be a career highlight. Some races might serve the horse as a means to advance toward future career highlights.

Fly So Free, Coronado's Quest, and Bayern were all on the Derby trail in the winter/spring and all used the Riva Ridge/Woody Stephens as a mid-season "reboot" and all ended up taking major two turn races in the summer and/or fall.

History has a way of contradicting misconceptions.

[Track Phantom]

In the last 43 years (since 1980), five Derby winners skipped the Preakness. Barbaro pulled up in another year. In the other 37 years, the Derby winner won the Preakness 14 times, 38%, and hit the board 28 times, 76%.

The average post time odds of the Derby winner in the Preakness since 1980 was just a bit above 2-1. Only Mine That Bird, Giacomo and Charasmatic went off above 4-1 (all 3 hit the board).

The trainers who made up the 14 Preakness wins by Derby winners since 1980:
Bob Baffert - 5
Art Sherman - 1
Doug O'Neill - 1
Rick Dutrow - 1
John Servis - 1
Barclay Tagg - 1
D. Wayne Lukas - 1
Charlie Whittingham -1
Jack Van Berg - 1
John Campo - 1

The two worst Derby winners finish in Preakness since 1980 were both trained by Todd Pletcher. Always Dreaming and Super Saver both ran 8th. Swale was 7th. No one else ran worse than 6th (excluding Barbaro).

[SG4]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Each individual race need not be a career highlight. Some races might serve the horse as a means to advance toward future career highlights.

Fly So Free, Coronado's Quest, and Bayern were all on the Derby trail in the winter/spring and all used the Riva Ridge/Woody Stephens as a mid-season "reboot" and all ended up taking major two turn races in the summer and/or fall.

Couldn't I as easily counter the argument of those 3 horses an as example vs the 3yo's who did go for it in Holy Bull and Honour and Glory? And then you may counter with the failure of Bolt D'Oro and so on & so forth. Long story short, I think Forte's connections have more to gain giving the Met Mile a try, it'd be great for the fans & I think he'd be competitive. I'd like to think those are enough reasons to want to give a race a try if he's healthy & ready to rock.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by SG4

Couldn't I as easily counter the argument of those 3 horses an as example vs the 3yo's who did go for it in Holy Bull and Honour and Glory? And then you may counter with the failure of Bolt D'Oro and so on & so forth.

Only if I took the bait and followed you down the rabbit hole.

I never said the Met Mile wouldn't be a valid spot for Forte. But you took great pains to point out why the Woody Stephens was a terrible idea.

I simply refuted that.

Long story short, I think Forte's connections have more to gain giving the Met Mile a try, it'd be great for the fans & I think he'd be competitive. I'd like to think those are enough reasons to want to give a race a try if he's healthy & ready to rock.

Personally, I think he should target the Hollywood Gold Cup. Would probably have all expenses paid to ship out there, would give him a crack at 10 furlongs, is a weak race year in year out, I presume would get a weight break, and Pletcher has already had success in the shipping in for that race.

[TracksideTalk]

Originally Posted by the little guy

History has a way of contradicting misconceptions.

Little Guy:
Your employer certainly has a knack for covering up any & all scandals with their big name trainers.
Last summer when Chad Brown got arrested not a peep
Over the past several years Ms Rice has had many problems and still to this date your employer turns their back.
Now Mr Pletcher and the top executives of your company purposely did not report a failed drug test to Forte to the public.
The betting public is always the last to know, yet you and your employer continue to defecate on us when we “had the nerve” to ask any of you a pertinent question.

[Robert Fischer]

Mage

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by TracksideTalk

Little Guy:
Your employer certainly has a knack for covering up any & all scandals with their big name trainers.
Last summer when Chad Brown got arrested not a peep
Over the past several years Ms Rice has had many problems and still to this date your employer turns their back.
Now Mr Pletcher and the top executives of your company purposely did not report a failed drug test to Forte to the public.
The betting public is always the last to know, yet you and your employer continue to defecate on us when we “had the nerve” to ask any of you a pertinent question.

First post in four plus years!!!

[TracksideTalk]

Originally Posted by the little guy

First post in four plus years!!!

What was the point of your statement?
Also why have you purposely avoided answering any of my comments?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by the little guy

First post in four plus years!!!

was wise of him to 'feel things out' before posting.

when i joined, i used up my demand-statements on Stillriledup