Will Mage win The Preakness ?

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm not saying he can't, but I'll be betting against him.

Historically, deep closing Derby winners come up short in Baltimore...
Orb - Street Sense - Giacomo - Mine That Bird - Monarchos
...and I'm sure there are others.

Two Phil's ran the kind of race that wins the Preakness.

New horses will add to the puzzle so I'm not committed to Phil, but I won't play the Derby winner on top.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I'm not saying he can't, but I'll be betting against him.

Historically, deep closing Derby winners come up short in Baltimore...
Orb - Street Sense - Giacomo - Mine That Bird - Monarchos
...and I'm sure there are others.

Two Phil's ran the kind of race that wins the Preakness.

New horses will add to the puzzle so I'm not committed to Phil, but I won't play the Derby winner on top.

God do I hope everyone thinks like you. Mage is not a true closer, he can easily be on the lead if the fractions are slow. He is going to keep getting better and better. His turn of foot reminds me of Sunday Silence! That move in the Florida Derby into fast fractions was something you rarely see. I can't believe more didn't pick up on it. Mage is much faster early than Two Phils, he just needs a decent break in the Preakness and it is on to the Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by zico20

God do I hope everyone thinks like you. Mage is not a true closer, he can easily be on the lead if the fractions are slow. He is going to keep getting better and better. His turn of foot reminds me of Sunday Silence! That move in the Florida Derby into fast fractions was something you rarely see. I can't believe more didn't pick up on it. Mage is much faster early than Two Phils, he just needs a decent break in the Preakness and it is on to the Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line.

Haven't had a crush this hard since Hard Spun.

Yes Palace Malice and Fort Larned are up there, but for a 3YO, Mage has captured me completely.

Hard to explain, but sometimes you just feel something great about a horse. He is still green as heck, but he can run. Sky is the limit. I think he can only keep getting better.

[Robert Fischer]

Good question.

hasn't cemented his style as a deep closer in my imagination.

4/4 poor breaks that were his fault. 2/4 was able to rush up in touch with pace.

4/4 quick 1st call pace figs. '113' was the lowest so far.


do not have to go back far to find a comparison horse/break/scenario-demands, and even talent (at least for this race from Rombauer comparitive to Mage's start) in Rombauer here in 2021 Preakness

watch the entire trip before you rule him out on style alone

YouTube

I'm not a fan of Castellano, but he earned the mount after his excellent Derby ride.

Two Phil's is also very good. I'm not into toss mode for Mage, but If both run and are healthy could make for a nice matchup

[Aerocraft67]

Hard to say just yet, but I'm slightly more confident he'll be the favorite than the winner, and a bit more confident than that he'll be an underlay.

I've been on this guy all along, too. Hard to keep arguing his lack of foundation entering his fifth race of a Derby win. But you could forgive him for a step back in the Preakness and still regard him highly.

We'll see how the field shapes up and if his odds reflect that.

[Gerard02]

I was disappointed when I discovered my mistake and corrected Mage’s fractions to discover he did not qualify on rule 1. Originally, he was a huge part of my original wagers, but since he was RAN and had the CM trait, I didn’t toss him completely. I missed he had the Buckpasser X, and if I had discovered that, might have placed more money on him to win. Sometimes, I get stuck on Rule 1 as religion, but at least, I don’t rely on it as the first and last word in my handicapping. Had he run up the track, I would have thought lesser of him, but you don’t toss a nice second place finish after being overtaken. Since, he is the Derby winner, I must respect him and include him in my wagers for the Preakness. I’ll see what the rules for Preakness discovers. Nonetheless, it makes for interesting talk. This is why I love this sport so much. Everyone gets a fair shake in the next leg, even the Japanese horse. Now, that his hoofs have hit US ground, he get another chance if he runs. Everything before the derby has a line through it. Tabula Rasa. Good luck in the Preakness.

[depalma113]

Well, I'm a lot biased and hope he wins, but there is more to this horse than just a deep closer. He has so much speed and stamina.

I've been comparing him to Afleet Alex for months.

One thing's for sure, I don't have to bet him to win as we got 22-1 in the Preakness Future bet.

[Gerard02]

Mage’s final fractions in the Derby
37.49; 24.61;13.08

[Hoops McCann]

hoping to see Mage, Two Phils, Angel of Empire and Forte in the Preakness as i think all of them have a good case for running. could be a great race.

[f2tornado]

I'd like to see Forte in the Preakness. Good FL Derby rematch, otherwise I won't be very excited for the feature. I don't think Forte is an ideal Belmont horse. Pletcher might agree as he suggested the Preakness is more likely. Mage can certainly win that big trophy and should Forte run, will offer more value than a Derby winner would otherwise provide. JC has had better success there as well.

[$w1fT]

I think the Preakness shapes up to be a terrific race if the possible/probables that David Grening mentioned yesterday shapes up that way.

[Robert Fischer]

my gut says Forte will skip the Preakness.

I think his health is fine, and the scratch was forced politics due to saffie's fuck up.

Skip because
1. Mage and Phil looked brolic
2. Angel of Empire probably skips(because gut reasons), but he's scary-good
3. Repole plain old likes The Belmont Stakes better and had success w/it last year
4. Preakness is the best race ever, but dumb NPCs think it's a fading jewel and lesser than other upcoming classics.

could see both Forte (Derby fav talent, Repole NY) and Tapit Trice (Belmont-suited style and breeding) entered in the Belmont just like we saw Nest and Mo Donegal in the Belmont

or it could be the hotpocket I just ate

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

my gut says Forte will skip the Preakness.

Forte is ineligible to run in the Preakness as a result of being scratched for veterinary reasons from the Derby.

Not sure if the connections of the horse will try to protest or get around this somehow.

[classhandicapper]

Not being able to run in the Preakness (or anything else for 2 weeks) really screws them up. I can't see them going straight into the Belmont from here or squeezing in some other race after the Preakness and then going into the Belmont on a quicker turnaround. They should probably just map out a new plan. Maybe they should consider the Met Mile. He'd get in light under the handicap conditions and 3yos have won the race. It would launch a new campaign with the Travers being the main summer target.

[sovereign]

I hope Mage wins The Preakness. It will put more interest in The Belmont.