Two Phil's

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Before we get started, let me say I'm a bit miffed at the misplaced apostrophe.

Anyway, he's my guy in the Derby.
Don't want to get too technical and boring...buts...he should get a good ground saving stalking trip within 5 lengths early, and I expect him to hit the lead at some point in the lane.
Of all the 1m16 preps, according to my homemade HumNums, only the Rebel has a faster pace fig than the Lecomte at the 6f mark.
Of all the preps at 1m1/8 and longer, the 6f pace figure for the Risen Star and Jeff Ruby are eclipsed only by the Florida Derby.

Phil was within two lengths of the lead or less in those three races, and moved to the lead in each one. Twice he was caught but held on well, and in his last prep he rolled home, recording the best speed fig of any horse in this field.

He drew inside, and will surely save ground through the first turn. His natural style and nice turn of foot should have him in the thick of it when they straighten out for home, and I expect him to be the one to catch with a furlong to go.
I worry about Loveberry getting anxious in his first Derby & moving too soon, and yes, Forte and some others will likely be bringing it late, but I'm betting that Phil will have enough left to finish in the exacta at a pretty good price.

WARNING ! WARNING !
Horseplayers lament upcoming - look away if you must...

Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, went exactly as I had hoped, until the end.
Deja vu all over again for me. Last year Epicenter (didn't he break from the 3 hole too?) was my guy and this year was a virtual carbon copy trip and outcome.
I did catch the exacta saver, but (and here it comes...) I would have had a very nice day if Phil had held on.

That's it - gotta get to work on tomorrow's Belmont card.
It's a tough game

[Spalding No!]

Two Phil's got a great ride. His jock very subtly, but very wisely shifted out a path or 2 heading into the 1st turn and secured a perfect spot off the rail & behind the vanguard of the 3 speed horses.

Your concerns about making the lead too soon did in fact come to fruition, but I don't think the jock was in error, as he basically needed to make that inside move at the time he did, splitting the tiring Verifying & and Kingsbarns who had taken a clear lead.

Overall, the pace was very fast and Two Phil's was perhaps too close to it throughout but being a length or 2 further back early or making his bid for the lead a 1/16th or so later then he did would have been disastrous in terms of position/traffic trouble.

Mage proved his turn of foot in the FL Derby was not a fluke. Those 2 look solid to renew a budding rivalry at Pimlico.

Tapit Trice looks like the token Tapit plodder ala Creator or Tapwrit, so perhaps he deserves a long look in the Belmont if that race comes up light.

Disarm continues to perform like a very good horse that is being poorly managed by running in top company before he's put it all together. Should be ruined by late July if they continue on to the Preakness and beyond. Might have a chance to avoid all that if they pull up stakes now & target the Haskell/Travers (maybe a confidence run in an allowance of the Matt Winn).

Just as he did in the Wood, Hit Show had to work hard early from a bad post to get the proper position, then came with a brief threatening run before wilting. When things go his way he'll make a dent at the top level again. I wonder if they are looking at the Preakness for him.

[castaway01]

Phantom, I have to say, you post some solid picks and insights on here. You definitely have my respect as a handicapper.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Two Phil's got a great ride. His jock very subtly, but very wisely shifted out a path or 2 heading into the 1st turn and secured a perfect spot off the rail & behind the vanguard of the 3 speed horses.

Your concerns about making the lead too soon did in fact come to fruition, but I don't think the jock was in error, as he basically needed to make that inside move at the time he did, splitting the tiring Verifying & and Kingsbarns who had taken a clear lead.

Overall, the pace was very fast and Two Phil's was perhaps too close to it throughout but being a length or 2 further back early or making his bid for the lead a 1/16th or so later then he did would have been disastrous in terms of position/traffic trouble.

Mage proved his turn of foot in the FL Derby was not a fluke. Those 2 look solid to renew a budding rivalry at Pimlico.

Tapit Trice looks like the token Tapit plodder ala Creator or Tapwrit, so perhaps he deserves a long look in the Belmont if that race comes up light.

Disarm continues to perform like a very good horse that is being poorly managed by running in top company before he's put it all together. Should be ruined by late July if they continue on to the Preakness and beyond. Might have a chance to avoid all that if they pull up stakes now & target the Haskell/Travers (maybe a confidence run in an allowance of the Matt Winn).

Just as he did in the Wood, Hit Show had to work hard early from a bad post to get the proper position, then came with a brief threatening run before wilting. When things go his way he'll make a dent at the top level again. I wonder if they are looking at the Preakness for him.

I believe hit show can win the Belmont. I think your two Phil’s analysis is spot on.

I love mage. But I think he stubs his toe at some point if he continues to break bad.

[Vinnie]

WOW!! What a race. Went exactly as I had envisioned except for the final outcome. Have to give Mage and his connections their due. TwoPhil's ran a phenomenal race. Loveberry had him positioned so well throughout to make that run but unfortunately, as it all worked out at the end of the day he was more than likely just a bit too close to the pace. Didn't the half go in something like 45.2? Tough beat as TwoPhil's did most of the heavy lifting pace wise, but, it is on to the next.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

WOW!! What a race. Went exactly as I had envisioned except for the final outcome. Have to give Mage and his connections their due. TwoPhil's ran a phenomenal race. Loveberry had him positioned so well throughout to make that run but unfortunately, as it all worked out at the end of the day he was more than likely just a bit too close to the pace. Didn't the half go in something like 45.2? Tough beat as TwoPhil's did most of the heavy lifting pace wise, but, it is on to the next.

Excellent recap Vinnie. Mage ran great, but Two Phil's may have run better.

Hope they both go to the Preakness. Would be absolutely fantastic.

[Vinnie]

The Preakness would be very interesting if they both go, especially between the top finishers of the Derby. I believe that the stretch in the Preakness is a little bit shorter naturally than CD. The race is a half of a furlong shorter. at 9.5 panels. Depending on how TwoPhil's, Mage and Angel of Empire all came out of that race (hopefully in exceptionally good order) the pace dynamics should set up for an excellent race.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

The Preakness would be very interesting if they both go, especially between the top finishers of the Derby. I believe that the stretch in the Preakness is a little bit shorter naturally than CD. The race is a half of a furlong shorter. at 9.5 panels. Depending on how TwoPhil's, Mage and Angel of Empire all came out of that race (hopefully in exceptionally good order) the pace dynamics should set up for an excellent race.

I think this is a good crop.

2:01.57 for a final time and plenty had much left.

Gonna be an exciting Triple Crown run.

[PhantomOnTour]

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[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

https://twitter.com/Bochalls77/statu...99777171070976

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I love mage. But I think he stubs his toe at some point if he continues to break bad.

Agreed about his poor breaks. He had some speed in his first 2 races which had me worried that he'll go back to being more of a stalking type if & when he corrects his gate issue. Obviously at this point in time more effective from off the pace.

His other chink in the armor is his race record, having not started until he was 3. He's done a lot in just 4 races. Most that reach these sorts of heights this quickly don't last very long, especially if they keep sending them out there. And he's coming back again in 2 weeks.

[Michael]

Just got done with my review of the Derby. Two Phil's ran a monster race and I hope you guys roped a few nice hits to match the great opinion. (multiple lengths better than mage!)

On a more personal level I'm looking for mistakes in my game when I do any post mortem review. I ended up playing Derma as my key... and I'm ok with that bet. (I was more than happy with 8/1) Did I have a bad opinion? I think my plan was fine.

This year I used my own custom speed and pace figures. While it was a learning process... my figures impressed me enough that I put full faith in them for the Derby. I also learned a few fancy tricks that could only be found after the race was over. NEXT YEAR!

[GaryG]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Yes, misplaced apostrophe is irksome as hell.

Mark Cramer once observed that horses with misspelled or unpleasant names generally offered overlaid odds because bettors subconsciously shied away from them. Example: Core A Apple.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Michael

Just got done with my review of the Derby. Two Phil's ran a monster race and I hope you guys roped a few nice hits to match the great opinion. (multiple lengths better than mage!)

On a more personal level I'm looking for mistakes in my game when I do any post mortem review. I ended up playing Derma as my key... and I'm ok with that bet. (I was more than happy with 8/1) Did I have a bad opinion? I think my plan was fine.

This year I used my own custom speed and pace figures. While it was a learning process... my figures impressed me enough that I put full faith in them for the Derby. I also learned a few fancy tricks that could only be found after the race was over. NEXT YEAR!

How do you know that if Mage had a better break and was just a couple lengths behind Two Phils down the backstretch that he wouldn't have run off and won by five. I think he would have!

[zico20]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Excellent recap Vinnie. Mage ran great, but Two Phil's may have run better.

Hope they both go to the Preakness. Would be absolutely fantastic.

Two Phil's didn't run better, he got a perfect trip. I hope he runs back in the Preakness, I am tossing him for the trifecta at this point. Two huge races for a horse that isn't that all talented. I just don't see three monster races in a row. I think he regresses big time if he goes.