Two Phil's

[PhantomOnTour]

Before we get started, let me say I'm a bit miffed at the misplaced apostrophe.

Anyway, he's my guy in the Derby.
Don't want to get too technical and boring...buts...he should get a good ground saving stalking trip within 5 lengths early, and I expect him to hit the lead at some point in the lane.
Of all the 1m16 preps, according to my homemade HumNums, only the Rebel has a faster pace fig than the Lecomte at the 6f mark.
Of all the preps at 1m1/8 and longer, the 6f pace figure for the Risen Star and Jeff Ruby are eclipsed only by the Florida Derby.

Phil was within two lengths of the lead or less in those three races, and moved to the lead in each one. Twice he was caught but held on well, and in his last prep he rolled home, recording the best speed fig of any horse in this field.

He drew inside, and will surely save ground through the first turn. His natural style and nice turn of foot should have him in the thick of it when they straighten out for home, and I expect him to be the one to catch with a furlong to go.
I worry about Loveberry getting anxious in his first Derby & moving too soon, and yes, Forte and some others will likely be bringing it late, but I'm betting that Phil will have enough left to finish in the exacta at a pretty good price.

[rastajenk]

I like it. I was around the Beulah Park scene when Loveberry was there, and Rivelli would be a nice regional guy to win not unlike Eric Reed last year. And he's got the Turfway poly-to-dirt angle that will dominate in coming years. And if he has the speed fig to back up all that, Phil's a definite inclusion.

[Michael]

Good Luck Phantom... I re-watched all of his races this morning. Let's just say... I'll gladly hand over my money to you if you're correct. He's an honest horse... will give you that. I just think when the bank gets robbed.. he'll be left grabbing the pennies at best.

Tammaro likes him too (per Steve Byk's podcast) ... I think he's a poison pill for the win. At best, I have him as my Luke Longly 6th man.

I would want at least 10/1 and I'm not so sure that's likely bc of the high fig. If I'm being honest... I think the high fig is a function of the surface... words are cheap though.. we'll see this weekend! glgl

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I expect him to be the one to catch with a furlong to go.

With the exception of Grindstone and Rich Strike, almost all modern day Derby winners were first or second at the 1/8th pole.


I have always handicapped the first to the 1/8th pole.

[f2tornado]

Not sure what to think of this horse. Popped a big Brisnet figure on poly after hanging in a pair a hotter paced races at the FG. Equibase was less impressed with his Turfway score (I know, it's Equibase, but it's still data). I don't much care for the Northern Dancer sire line here, nor does the dam side excite me much. He does have Fine Feathers in tail female which is the same line as Barbaro. Also ran a fast final 3/8th. Certainly some potential stamina there if the Jeff Ruby wasn't an aberration. Loveberry is not a name that would ever come to my mind if someone asked who is the winning jockey, but neither was Sonny Leon. Add in the fact every Phil or person who knows a Phil will throw money at the thing, potentially resulting in an underlay. The horse hasn't beaten any A-listers, maybe a few career G3 types. The pace figures for this horse do remind me of Mandaloun and he has a win over the surface.

Some hard knocks, some nice positives. Hard for me to use on top. The nature of the Derby forces one to eliminate some good horses and hope they don't beat you. This is one of those for me. I might slap him in a trifecta.

[Robert Fischer]

I've got him in the 2nd tier of horses, a 'B' if I'm using alphabet system, but in the top 10 runners in terms of talent.

A couple things I worry about
- he's been inconsistent with his stretch runs. A stressful trip at 10 furlongs could magnify that.
- his style. He's got a relentless style with an early-move/long drive. Danger of being used up.

What can get him in contention to hit the board or even win?
-
If the Turfway Derby was a sign that he's over his stretch questions (fwiw Two Phil's Hawthorne workout had a relatively strong gallop-out) and that it's a fundamental thing and not highly dependent on his trip to that point (these things always are trip dependent but it's a matter of degree, and this is where the high speed figure and strong late pace figure matters to me-supposedly his solid stretch performance in the Turfway was done at a high rate of speed and not an illusion).

and if his style plays out to his benefit - say several of the following beneficial scenarios play out at the same time;

*lack of brutal pace
*rain or slop could help
*failure of a quality horse to run big while forward (Derma Sotogake or Verifying or Practical Move are the three good horses that figure to be forward, unless one of the other good horses happens to surprise with being a bit more forward than expected)
*none of the four or five 'A' level horses with supertrainer barns (and yes, Rivelli is also a supertrainer, we have a lot in this field) comes running a big one...

then Could find Two Phil's strike the front in what would be forward-favoring position.

[Michael]

IF two Phils can break on top of verifying and slow the race... that might be his best chance. He's fast enough.. and we all know how dangerous that rail is.



Fairly sure timeformUS's pace projection isn't going to play out.

[burnsy]

My question is how he beats Angel of Empire when that one has already beaten the brakes off of him…….on dirt. The he ships to Turfway for a weaker field and synth surface . Meanwhile , Angel of Empire ships to the Arkansas Derby and beats the brakes off of that field . Just from watching the replays I could care less what the numbers say . He’s in deep waters in this spot . Not impossible, but he’s a reach to me. And if you’re giving me 8-1 on Angel and this horse is 12-1…… it’s a no brainer who I prefer . I can’t knock a 12-1 play but I’m wary of this horse being good on a dirt surface.

[Fightingirish51195]

Would only use if wet and woukd probably need north of 20.

[Vinnie]

Two Phils is the horse that seemingly has the most upside at the present time that will also more than likely be going off at the most appetizing odds of anyone that legitimately may have a shot in here. I think Forte although super talented might be a little stagnant in his present form cycle and both he and Tapit Trice are going to have to come off of the pace and run down the leader late in the race to get it done. I consider the surface switch from Synthetic back to dirt and all of that. But, if Two Phil's is good enough, I believe that he will be placed immediately behind the speed (say the #2, #4, #17) and he will come running late from just a few lengths off of the front runners. Maybe he is just coming in to his own at the right time as many of these three- year-old horses often do. I am hopeful that is indeed the case.

Additionally, he recently posted two pretty solid workouts. Have to take a stand somewhere because I feel that there are a handful of horses that could get it done come Saturday. If fortunate enough to get him across the wire first, it would be nice to get a decent price or two underneath him for a nice paying Trifecta. First things first...

Good luck to everyone on Saturday. Have a lot of fun!!

[Curln22]

Highest brisnet/drf figure.
Great last 3 F and 1f closing time.
Has run plenty of races at different tracks and has brought his race with him.
Jock and him several races together.
Very tactical and not afraid of traffic.
Nice works at Hawthorne everyone says is a deep dirt track.

Biggest negative to everyone is did he move up because of the synthetic?

Fair question
For a horse whose odds are gonna drift up closer to 20-1 to get that question answered.

GL

[Aerocraft67]

Yes, misplaced apostrophe is irksome as hell.

I make Two Phil's for a mild underlay, nearly fair adjusted for takeout. I have him ranked 11th on a vague notion of value for money. That's also about how many I see with a decent chance to win. He could fit somewhere defensively, but I'm trying not to use him.

He's tied with Kingsbarns for sixth choice on the ML at 12-1; I prefer that one. Even 15-1 gets you Mage or Verifying, both of which I prefer. I'd rather dutch two longshots at 20-1 and 30-1 or include them in a part wheel than bet Two Phil's. It would take upwards of 20-1 to really get my attention.

TFUS puts 11 horses in front of him in the early going. He's passed five at most. So he'll need to improve his position or his run or both. Most of his rivals also face way more horses in front of them than ever.

He has "speed" on both sides, Verifying, Confidence Game. Maybe they usher him into a more favorable position than TFUS projects. That's probably what I like most about his chances.

He's entering his ninth race. Only Derma Sotogake has as many. Not that he's without upside, but Phil's is the most exposed domestic runner.

He's got the top speed fig winning the Jack Ruby, and Rivelli is good for the surface switch. But the race returned a low class fig, well below most of the last preps (even the Wood was higher). You could argue he earned as much class for show in the Risen Star—behind winner Angel of Empire and lowly Sun Thunder in place. Seems behind maybe two thirds of the field on class.

For the distance, he factors as good as any. I have him better than two thirds of the field. Here's a fun fact—Two Phil's has far and above the highest Tomlinson rating for the distance in the DRF PPs. Of course BRIS gives him an opposing rating near the bottom of the field, although it is solidly higher than his baseline for dirt.

All that said, 12-1 is a respectable proposition. Good luck.

[f2tornado]

Speaking of Class, the Brisnet Prime Power Rating does have 2Phils at 4th best. Class is only is only a portion of that hodgepodge but interesting nonetheless. Simplification was rated 3rd last year and managed to fill the super. I want to totally toss him as I think his Turfway figures are bunk but having a hard time doing so.

[Aerocraft67]

TFUS podcast flatters the choice. David Aragona's second pick. Craig Milkowski not so sure, but regarded him as a contender.

[classhandicapper]

To me, he's kind of a wildcard.

IMO, his recent dirt races are a bit better than they look. I thought he moved against the flow a bit in his last 2 dirt races. So I can see someone concluding his last race on synth wasn't just him liking the synth better. He may just be an improving horse that was better than he looked that just happened to run on synth.

Still, even though that last race was fast enough, I don't think it was of high enough quality to assume he would win even if he's just as good on dirt. And since it was a huge top, I'm not 100% certain he's just as good dirt even though I understand the case for that point of view.