How to make money in horse racing

[thaskalos]

I don’t know if Sartin deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with Andy Beyer. IMO…Beyer displayed the type of “integrity” which separated him from the other “Handicapping Giants” of that time period. In fact…I am of the opinion that Tom Brohamer is the one mostly responsible for the “change” that Sartin has brought to the horse racing world.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by headhawg

And Ragozin has a massive following?? Ask any knowledgeable horseplayer who had more influence.

From what I experienced those using the Rags put far more money through the windows than most other players. The Rags were also widely used by trainers to spot their horses.


I am not making a value judgement as to the Rags v. Sartin Methodolgy, just an observation.

[formula_2002]

TESTING FOR SIGNIFICANCE;
HERE IS A COPY OF AN EXCEL FILE I DEVELOPED TODAY .
I SELECTED TO SHOW A 15% VIG TRACK, TRACK ODDS $1.50 TO 1, MY WIN % OF 36%

THE 5% CONFIDENCE LEVEL REQUIRES 1800 PLAYABLE RACES.


CHECK THE MATH IF YOU WILL.

[lefty359]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don’t know if Sartin deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with Andy Beyer. IMO…Beyer displayed the type of “integrity” which separated him from the other “Handicapping Giants” of that time period. In fact…I am of the opinion that Tom Brohamer is the one mostly responsible for the “change” that Sartin has brought to the horse racing world.

I disagree. Beyer is a speed handicapper while Sartin brought in pace numbers
Brohamer followed Sartin, he did not lead him.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by lefty359

I disagree. Beyer is a speed handicapper while Sartin brought in pace numbers
Brohamer followed Sartin, he did not lead him.

Brohamer was an actual bettor who brought "legitimacy" to the practical side of pace handicapping. Sartin was strictly "theory", and that's not enough...IMO. Sartin started it...but Brohamer was the one who popularized the practice. The "bible" of pace handicapping was written by Brohamer...not Sartin.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Imo, this post is spot on.

It's really easy to backfit.

For at least the past 10 years I've been assigning a random number to every record in the database. (My way of removing cognitive bias from the process of creating holdout samples.)

After validation on randomly generated holdout samples I'm also a big believer in applying the scientific method to the following hypothesis:

Q. Does what I created perform well on fresh races going forward in time after I created it?

Imo, that's the acid test.


-jp

.

I certainly agree.

Where many people fail with their statistics is in assuming that if A is true and B is true then A + B must be better or good at all.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don’t know if Sartin deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with Andy Beyer. IMO…Beyer displayed the type of “integrity” which separated him from the other “Handicapping Giants” of that time period. In fact…I am of the opinion that Tom Brohamer is the one mostly responsible for the “change” that Sartin has brought to the horse racing world.

I would consider Beyer to be one of the finest journalists and writers about the horse racing game. The totality of his works certainly created more interest. However, beyond being an extraordinary ambassador of the game his actual handicapping abilities in terms of making money leave much to be desired.

There’s an old adage in the world of horse racing that goes, “Do what I say, but Don’t Do what I Do”. In his case I’m afraid you couldn't do either!

I bring this up only because on many an occasion (particularly for the KY Derby) he wouldn’t even trust his own numbers. I’ll never forget him admitting to his own incompetence when he acknowledged that although War Emblem scored his highest number of 108 going wire to wire in the Illinois Derby that he couldn’t use him in the Derby.
Then on another earlier occasion I personally witnessed him tell the crowd at the pre-race Belmont Stakes seminar that although Seattle Slew had by far his highest numbers coming into that race that he couldn’t win going mile and a half because he considered Slew a “One dimensional speed horse”. If speed was his game why would he ignore his own work?

In terms of taking the game to entirely new levels of monetary success you don’t have to look any further than what JP factually suggested. These guys made Whales look like Minnows!
Believe me JP, its not just you who can recognize the True giants of this game

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Bill Benter and Alan Woods changed the racing world.

But that's just me.

-jp
.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Brohamer was an actual bettor who brought "legitimacy" to the practical side of pace handicapping. Sartin was strictly "theory", and that's not enough...IMO. Sartin started it...but Brohamer was the one who popularized the practice. The "bible" of pace handicapping was written by Brohamer...not Sartin.

Brohamer's book was what did it for me.

I would have to agree with you.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Brohamer's book was what did it for me.

I would have to agree with you.

Agreed.
But for me it was the concept of the Brohamer Model long before the book.

That's why I give Sartin so much credit: he had so many good people who were drawn to his ideas.

His biggest fault was that he tried to keep too much of the credit for himself.

[formula_2002]

A REVISION

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

TESTING FOR SIGNIFICANCE;
HERE IS A COPY OF AN EXCEL FILE I DEVELOPED TODAY .
I SELECTED TO SHOW A 15% VIG TRACK, TRACK ODDS $1.50 TO 1, MY WIN % OF 36%

THE 5% CONFIDENCE LEVEL REQUIRES 1800 PLAYABLE RACES.


CHECK THE MATH IF YOU WILL.

Hello

Can you tell me how columns M and N are calculated. I see in cell M6 is says to read column J?

Thanks for the EXCEL chart formula_2002!

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by Triopstor

1. Someone told me that the favourites of the 1970's usually paid 4-1
odds. I'm curious if that's true. I wonder how far a $2.00 ticket
in the 1950's got the handicappers of that age.

2. Doctor Sartin changed the horse racing world.

3. You have given me a big arsenal with " If you can figure out why those
horses lose 47% of the time, you can bet against those false favorites
and make some money." Make money against the super rich.

4. Build a database from DRF Results?

Best of luck to you too Dan!

The manual that shows the results of Sartin's research on horses probabilities to win based on how they rank vs. the competition in the race in regards to early/late/total can be found here:


https://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4875


For really good result charts you can get for free, try here:


https://www.equibase.com/static/char...ex.html?SAP=TN

[sjk]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Brohamer's book was what did it for me.

I would have to agree with you.

Brohamer's book got me started too.

[romankoz]

Totally agree with Dan B.

Create your own db, test ideas.

I am almost at 5 yrs with my personal db and it has been worth the effort. I have finally satisfied myself about a couple of theories as the numbers are high enough to accept as a fair set of results.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Triopstor

Hello

Can you tell me how columns M and N are calculated. I see in cell M6 is says to read column J?

Thanks for the EXCEL chart formula_2002!

here is a revision. I think this may be correct