Pacelines...which ones, how many?

[pandy]

The best paceline selection process is to average a few of the horse's best recent races at a similar distance and surface. That gives you a good overall look at the horse's ability. For instance, best 3 races in its last 5 races that had similar circumstances. Average of best 2 of last 4 from similar distance/surface is also pretty good.

Using one paceline, like best of last 3, is okay but if the horse is ranked 1st off that, it means that the horse has to run the same race today. If you average 3 races, it gives you a better indication of what kind of talent the horse currently has in comparison to the other horses.

[shoelessjoe]

Fast

Good thoughts on Binder

[Michael]

Here's an interesting one. I'd be curious how others would handle picking paceline(s)

NY - 125k stakes - 8.5 on the inner - 4up

[ranchwest]

Date? Track? Race?

[Michael]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Date? Track? Race?

Sorry, it's the R8 on the BEL Card 29th

[ranchwest]

Line 4, 9/10/22

[Secretariat]

I talked to Howard once about this. He had posted in his Followup that Jim Bayle had last of top 3 back in the Sport Stats days as the best roi placeline, and I think Howard had a best of last three comparable races up to 5 races at some point if a horse had been running turf or routes and was running in a sprint now.

So say a horse pacelines were top to bottom as follows: First line had a dirt sprint of say 85 and then a turf race of 92 and dirt route of 90 and a layoff of 60 days to another dirt sprint of 90 and lastly a dirt route of 92, what would be the paceline to choose? Today is a dirt sprint.

Obviously, if you're chosing best of last 3 comparable over 5 races, the selection would be the 90 sprint line or the 4th race back. However, there may be extenuatuing circumstances such as this 90 was prior to a layoff from 4 races back and was part of a different form cycle, the horse may have had a jockey switch or been claimed. The most recent race was the lowest score of any of the top 5 races, and we could only find two comparable dirt sprint races. And there are a myriad of other factors that CJ mentioned as relevance issues to today's race.

For the single paceline selectors there is always those situations when you are uncertain which of two pacelines is the correct one to choose.

I asked Doc about it, and he simply said, there's a way to find your own answers which is the best way of all, but most don't want to take the time. He suggested every time I was undecided between two pacelines, to track why I made my final choice of paceline and to log it. Then after the fact to grade whether I made the "better" choice between the two pacelines as evidenced by the horse''s performance in today's race. If I made the "better" choice between the two pacelines more than 50% of the time I was selecting better than simply flipping a coin between the two pacelines. If my grades showed 70-80% of choosing the "better" paceline than I should be doing well. Lastly, he said if you are choosing the "better" performance paceline BELOW 50%, then you have a choice - pass those races and keep practising to get better, or even use a contrarian approach - choose the paceline opposite to the one you would have picked between the two since those are getting better than 50%.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Secretariat

I talked to Howard once about this. He had posted in his Followup that Jim Bayle had last of top 3 back in the Sport Stats days as the best roi placeline, and I think Howard had a best of last three comparable races up to 5 races at some point if a horse had been running turf or routes and was running in a sprint now.

So say a horse pacelines were top to bottom as follows: First line had a dirt sprint of say 85 and then a turf race of 92 and dirt route of 90 and a layoff of 60 days to another dirt sprint of 90 and lastly a dirt route of 92, what would be the paceline to choose? Today is a dirt sprint.

Obviously, if you're chosing best of last 3 comparable over 5 races, the selection would be the 90 sprint line or the 4th race back. However, there may be extenuatuing circumstances such as this 90 was prior to a layoff from 4 races back and was part of a different form cycle, the horse may have had a jockey switch or been claimed. The most recent race was the lowest score of any of the top 5 races, and we could only find two comparable dirt sprint races. And there are a myriad of other factors that CJ mentioned as relevance issues to today's race.

For the single paceline selectors there is always those situations when you are uncertain which of two pacelines is the correct one to choose.

I asked Doc about it, and he simply said, there's a way to find your own answers which is the best way of all, but most don't want to take the time. He suggested every time I was undecided between two pacelines, to track why I made my final choice of paceline and to log it. Then after the fact to grade whether I made the "better" choice between the two pacelines as evidenced by the horse''s performance in today's race. If I made the "better" choice between the two pacelines more than 50% of the time I was selecting better than simply flipping a coin between the two pacelines. If my grades showed 70-80% of choosing the "better" paceline than I should be doing well. Lastly, he said if you are choosing the "better" performance paceline BELOW 50%, then you have a choice - pass those races and keep practising to get better, or even use a contrarian approach - choose the paceline opposite to the one you would have picked between the two since those are getting better than 50%.

Solid post Secretariat.. I understand and I sort of agree with the thought process. For me, It's too cut and dry in my mind. The whole rules based format leads to mechanic thinking that I just can't wrap my head around doing it that way. However, In general I understand

Also, Thanks @Ranch.

Kentucky Downs with all of the rain always changes the context. Firm Rails at 0 on the 10th... I can get to your line though. it's an interesting pick.

Maker also has horses stationed at KD... which I think gives them a huge advantage.

[gfnut]

I would first decide if he is a contender or not. If he is a contender, then I would look for a pace line that I think he will run today. Look for 1 on the same surface and close to the same distance and conditions. I would probably not pick the KD line, just because that track is such a odd track. The horse does have a line with the same conditions and the same amount of days away and that would be Line 8. That line is same track, distance and same type of layoff.