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03-27-2023, 05:30 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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MLB Picks 2023
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decided he's worthy of having his own thread instead of going back and forth
he's 7-3 since 3/17
reddit guy potd:
Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres over 7
right now vegasinsider.com is showing 6 books paying +105 to +115 on that bet
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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03-28-2023, 05:40 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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7-3-1 since 3/17
Toronto Raptors -2.5 over Miami Heat
only 1 book shows 2.5 now - MGM - all of the others show 3
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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03-28-2023, 11:50 PM
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#3
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,724
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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7-3-1 since 3/17
Toronto Raptors -2.5 over Miami Heat
only 1 book shows 2.5 now - MGM - all of the others show 3
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Won by daylight (14 points)
New record 8-3-1
Sorry for intruding saw that he had this game picked so minds well help out here with the result
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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03-29-2023, 06:07 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark
Won by daylight (14 points)
New record 8-3-1
Sorry for intruding saw that he had this game picked so minds well help out here with the result
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any and all comments are welcome
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs over 7
looks like a bettor can get even money at a couple of books and -105 at others
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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03-29-2023, 09:38 AM
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#5
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,724
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
any and all comments are welcome
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs over 7
looks like a bettor can get even money at a couple of books and -105 at others
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Ok thanks just didn't want to take over that's all lol
I am going to fade his pick here as I think it will just be Under 7 goals
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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03-29-2023, 07:58 PM
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#6
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,724
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I know the game has already started but here are the predictions from my spreadsheet
Team OffRat DefRat FinRat ProjLine ProjTot
FLA 3.39 3.74 -0.17
TOR 3.56 2.89 0.66 0.83 6.8
I project that Toronto wins by 0.83 points and the Total will be 6.8
I do these projections for all sports except soccer just Pro and College Sports I am practising on
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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03-30-2023, 05:16 AM
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#7
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,724
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark
I know the game has already started but here are the predictions from my spreadsheet
Team OffRat DefRat FinRat ProjLine ProjTot
FLA 3.39 3.74 -0.17
TOR 3.56 2.89 0.66 0.83 6.8
I project that Toronto wins by 0.83 points and the Total will be 6.8
I do these projections for all sports except soccer just Pro and College Sports I am practising on
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Well I didn’t mean to come in here and bash the guy but didn’t think these 2 teams would go over tonight as they only scored 5 goals on a Panthers 3-2 win in OT.
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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03-30-2023, 05:43 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark
I am going to fade his pick here as I think it will just be Under 7 goals
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nice call
this time I'm including a link to his page so anyone can see his analysis which is usually quite lengthy -
he's 8-4-1
potd:
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (runline) over Detroit Tigers
he doesn't say the odds but it's about -105___________glta
https://www.reddit.com/user/HSRiddles/
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-30-2023 at 05:49 AM.
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03-30-2023, 10:26 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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some other thoughts re the run line in baseball
it might seem obvious but the home team will not bat in the 9th if they are ahead - 12% less chance to score runs
the home team will win by 2 or more only 39% of the time while the road fave will win by 2 or more 44% of the time
per the link - underdogs will win or cover on the run line 61% of the time at home and 56% of the time on the road
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/gu...ins%20by%20one
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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03-30-2023, 11:33 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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too late to edit my mistake
in the above post I meant to say "the home fave will win by 2 or more only 39% of the time" not "the home team"
in this instance by taking the run line his odds went from about -240 to about -105 - his payout if a win will be well more than double that on a straight bet
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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03-30-2023, 11:48 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,760
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i saw that most of the legal sports books are charging 20 cent lines, Wynnbet is 15 cents and the Westgate is using a 10 cent line. i used to get 5 cent lines out there and still lost!
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03-31-2023, 06:02 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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9-4-1 since 3/17
potd:
Houston Rockets -4.5 (he says up to 5) over Detroit Pistons
this will be a raging battle between 2 pathetically horrible teams both of whom have been eliminated from the playoffs
enjoy - both - 4.5 and -5 show as being currently available
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-31-2023 at 06:05 AM.
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04-01-2023, 05:35 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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10-4-1 since 3/17
potd:
FAU vs. SDS under 132.5 (down to 131.5)
currently several books show at 132 and 131.5
just looked at SDSU's last 10 games
they've held opponents to an average of 57.7 p.p.g.
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 04-01-2023 at 05:49 AM.
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04-01-2023, 11:12 AM
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#14
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,724
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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10-4-1 since 3/17
potd:
FAU vs. SDS under 132.5 (down to 131.5)
currently several books show at 132 and 131.5
just looked at SDSU's last 10 games
they've held opponents to an average of 57.7 p.p.g.
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Crap I have the Over in this game.
One of us will be right
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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04-01-2023, 11:23 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,760
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if that game stays under, FAU should win it, the points would be insurance!
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