TimeformUS

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by cj

It looks at last five races but doesn't use them all. I don't exclude races from other distances/surfaces but the differences are factored in.

There ought to be some indication on the Form which races go into a runners Early/ Late TimeformUS numbers...you mention that you do not use all of them (might you not use REALLY BAD RACELINES..?), toss them, as not being representative...? But you see the issue here, right...If a horse throws in a clunker and still has a superior rating, then that's probably a good bet maybe. But unknown to us, you tossed that race out of his figures, then maybe not so superior...how's a guy to know which races a runners Pace Figures are based on...?

[GMB@BP]

The impossible dream come true!!

[tennoel]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Expires during the night...one of the benefits of the monthly pass is you can do what you suggest, though that lasts about 3 weeks.

That explains why they show about ten days of past files, but won't let me access them. Good to know about the monthly pass. Thanks for the info.

[cj]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

There ought to be some indication on the Form which races go into a runners Early/ Late TimeformUS numbers...you mention that you do not use all of them (might you not use REALLY BAD RACELINES..?), toss them, as not being representative...? But you see the issue here, right...If a horse throws in a clunker and still has a superior rating, then that's probably a good bet maybe. But unknown to us, you tossed that race out of his figures, then maybe not so superior...how's a guy to know which races a runners Pace Figures are based on...?

I'll just take it a step further and give away the exact calculations for all my figures.

I use the best ratings, not the worst ones.

[GMB@BP]

Ok so there definitely is some bugs wuth TUS in Formulator.

It does not appear to be working at all with Chrome, only option is the Moss Pace Figures.

With Edge and Avast browsers its working except many of the horses last race do not have the figures.

[GMB@BP]

Ok, you will need to clear your cache and I cleared cookies and Chrome now will show the figures.

Still the last race figures do not show up, for the most horses.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by cj

I'll just take it a step further and give away the exact calculations for all my figures.

Especially how you calculate your track variant. Then we'll be set.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Ok, you will need to clear your cache and I cleared cookies and Chrome now will show the figures.

Still the last race figures do not show up, for the most horses.

I've been told it should be good by the morning.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Especially how you calculate your track variant. Then we'll be set.

LOL, nice one.

[cj]

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[GMB@BP]

I have no clue if this can be data based but I am finding something that is relatively useful for in turf racing and pace running lines.

If you use Timeform pace figures in judging the efforts of running lines and making upgrades or downgrades....

in general upgrade on the pace red figures and downgrade if they were blue.

But I am noticing something with turf races. Downgrading horses who got easy leads setting slow fractions, really slow seems to be worse, in turf races often times can hurt a horses chances as much as it helps.

Closers on turf are trained to finish, so if they dont have to use any energy to stay within site of the leaders they can finish as they have been trained, a horse who is on the lead then has to outfinish these closers when the closer hasnt used any energy to keep up. Now if I have a longshot, yea, go slow and see what happens...if I am a talented horses who shown they are good enough to win the event they are in I would like them to set a moderate pace, not fast but not slow.

The best example I can use is Hawksmoor in the Matriarch. In the race at Kee she set super duper slow fractions at 5/1, yet was caught. At Del Mar she went off at 12/1 off that effort, set moderate fractions and was just nailed late.

In dirt I am much more likely to downgrade these efforts, in turf I am just not sure anymore. It seems like I need to study energy distribution and pace more than I have, in terms of just learning the relationships with distance, surface, running style.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Ok, you will need to clear your cache and I cleared cookies and Chrome now will show the figures.

Still the last race figures do not show up, for the most horses.

When a Formulator card first gets generated several days before the race, the horses' last race will sometimes be missing pace figures due to some timing issues with availability. As CJ said, it will typically be updated soon after or the next day. The timing issue will be fixed. A little tough during the holiday.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

But I am noticing something with turf races. Downgrading horses who got easy leads setting slow fractions, really slow seems to be worse, in turf races often times can hurt a horses chances as much as it helps.

My independent research is similar.

Most front running turf horses are not one dimensional speed balls. If they get a loose easy lead in one race and wire and then come back in a race that looks more honest, the same horse will just sit off the pace comfortably and finish well. In general, I think pace matters less on turf unless it varies a LOT from the mean.

[Tom]

I notice the same thing.

My guess is that grass closers really accelerate after running slow early, and the rated early horse are not able to step it up later - just playing in to the closers game.

Or not....

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

I notice the same thing.

My guess is that grass closers really accelerate after running slow early, and the rated early horse are not able to step it up later - just playing in to the closers game.

Or not....

There is some kind of strange balance going on between how much natural speed a horse has, the pace/how much energy the horse used early, the surface, how well the horse can finish, and position.

It varies horse to horse, between dirt, synth, and turf, and also on the same surface from track to track and day to day (and of course distance).

When I try to think about, sometimes it makes my head explode.

On dirt, the horses with the best turn of foot are typically the front runners.

At the end of the typical dirt race, the best closers are tired too. They may be less tired than the front runners, but it can still be tough for them to get up because everyone is spread out and they are decelerating. If the pace is very slow and they are positioned closer than usual, the fastest horses up front will be fresh and often outsprint them late. So they still have trouble getting up.

On turf, some of the horses with the best turn of foot are mid pack or even deeper closers. At the end of the race almost everyone is still relatively fresh and finishes well. If you are best finisher with the best turn of foot and you are close, you'll get up even though the front runners still have plenty in tank.

I think some of it training also.

For dirt, trainers will teach a horse with speed to to use it early because it's an advantage.

For turf, trainers will teach the horse to sit and finish fast.