TimeformUS

[raybo]

Good stuff CJ, and things I have wanted to do for quite some time and finally have a handle on.

I have a question on another subject, which you may not be able to answer fully due to proprietary concerns. It involves the "Pace Projector", namely the visualization of some horses being "off the rail" or outside other horses.

How do you project that outside positioning? Is it, what appears to me to be the obvious, that the 1st call projection of positions causes some horses to be on the rail at the 2nd call, while others cannot be on the rail at that call, or do you use other factors like jockey preferences, etc.?

Or, does that outside positioning just mean that the horse is traveling faster than the one inside him/her? This would be the easiest way to do it, but sometimes there is no inside horse shown, that would be keeping the outside horse from gaining the rail. A little confusing at times.

[cj]

I don't know the specifics, but they are based on the post position and the early speed ratings. If horses are close ratings wise, they are put in post order from the inside out. It is assumed if a horse is able to steer to the rail, it will. If not, it will get as close to the inside as possible.

[Zydeco]

Originally Posted by cj

More new stuff today, live odds and MTP...coming soon you will default to upcoming race when changing tracks, not race 1.

http://timeformusblog.com/2014/02/28...to-timeformus/

This is good. Defaulting to upcoming race. I like it. Thanks

[raybo]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't know the specifics, but they are based on the post position and the early speed ratings. If horses are close ratings wise, they are put in post order from the inside out. It is assumed if a horse is able to steer to the rail, it will. If not, it will get as close to the inside as possible.

Ok, so if 2 or more horses' are beside each other (or almost) in the Pace Projector, then the visualization will show them as lowest post position to the inside, next lowest PP outside that one, etc..

If I'm understanding correctly, an outside post horse, who has the best 1st fraction, by a wide enough margin, will be automatically assumed to go to the rail, or as close to it as it can get without interfering with another horse to its inside. And, if that same horse also has a competitive 2nd call speed, it will not necessarily retain that inside position, in the visualization, because a lower post position horse that is also competitive at the 2nd call will occupy that inside position, simply due to a lower post position? If this is true, then the inside/outside representation means nothing regarding potential ground loss to the inside horse(s)?

I think there are probably some users that are crediting or discrediting horses chances based, in part, on those visualizations of rail positions. Maybe they would be better served to ignore those projected rail positions?

I'm not trying to nit-pic here just trying to understand exactly what the graphic is displaying, other than early speed projection.

Another question, has the idea been considered to only add the trailing lines behind the chicklets for those horses who project to be gaining on horses in front, and/or adding something to chicklets that project to be fading? That would be a nice addition, I think, if it's even possible.

[ten2oneormore]

Originally Posted by Bennie

CJ
I see that Meydan has entries listed for Saturday. Do you think PP's will be available for those races? I can't play during week days due to the time frame and work schedule but like to play there from time to time when they run on weekends. It's good exercise for big Dubai races later on.

The big races are just about here,Super Saturday is next weekend and then off until World Cup Night 3 weeks later March 29th.



As for the thread topic, I'm getting used to it but agree with some others that don't need the bells and whistles.


Having the Leader/Winners fig....Actual Horse figs plus any bias all on one line was brilliant in its simplicity.

[cj]

Originally Posted by raybo

Ok, so if 2 or more horses' are beside each other (or almost) in the Pace Projector, then the visualization will show them as lowest post position to the inside, next lowest PP outside that one, etc..

Yes

Originally Posted by raybo

If I'm understanding correctly, an outside post horse, who has the best 1st fraction, by a wide enough margin, will be automatically assumed to go to the rail, or as close to it as it can get without interfering with another horse to its inside. And, if that same horse also has a competitive 2nd call speed, it will not necessarily retain that inside position, in the visualization, because a lower post position horse that is also competitive at the 2nd call will occupy that inside position, simply due to a lower post position? If this is true, then the inside/outside representation means nothing regarding potential ground loss to the inside horse(s)?

The visualization is at the 1st call, 2f in races < 1 mile, 4f for all others. We don't go beyond the 1st call. Personally, I just look to see how much speed looks to be in the race.

Originally Posted by raybo

I think there are probably some users that are crediting or discrediting horses chances based, in part, on those visualizations of rail positions. Maybe they would be better served to ignore those projected rail positions?

I think they are fine if used as intended, to project finish position at the first call. Beyond that, no, I wouldn't assume much about ground loss. But in a two turn race, since the projection comes after a turn, I do look at that.

Originally Posted by raybo

I'm not trying to nit-pic here just trying to understand exactly what the graphic is displaying, other than early speed projection.

No worries, I answer the best I can.

Originally Posted by raybo

Another question, has the idea been considered to only add the trailing lines behind the chicklets for those horses who project to be gaining on horses in front, and/or adding something to chicklets that project to be fading? That would be a nice addition, I think, if it's even possible.

We have been trying to figure out a way to display late speed. That is certainly something I'll pass on.

[cj]

We adjusted the scale for the figures a few weeks ago, and I posted this as one of the effects:


Value of one length (There is some slight variance among surfaces)

1/4 mile, 6 points
1/2 mile, 3 points
5 furlongs, 2.4 points
6 furlongs, 2.0 points
7 furlongs, 1.7 points
8 furlongs, 1.5 points
9 furlongs, 1.4 points
10 furlongs, 1.3 points
12 furlongs, 1.1 points


This is much tighter, and better, than the previous one and maintains symmetry with the mother ship Timeform.

[Tom]

CJ, will this adjustment show in the past performances from before?

[Sapio]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't know the specifics, but they are based on the post position and the early speed ratings. If horses are close ratings wise, they are put in post order from the inside out. It is assumed if a horse is able to steer to the rail, it will. If not, it will get as close to the inside as possible.

Hi CJ

Do you have any performance stats on the Pace Projector that you can share?

Thomas Sapio

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Sapio

Hi CJ

Do you have any performance stats on the Pace Projector that you can share?

Thomas Sapio

That would be interesting, but from what I've seen so far, the TFUS PP does a very good job of getting the leaders at the first call right, and often the 2nd call too.

I have been thinking of separating the horses by running style first, and then creating my own velocities based early pace picture (EPP) from there (I'm assuming this is similar to what TFUS is doing). Right now, I only use early velocities, through the 2nd call (without running styles considered), while the TFUS PP is at the 1st call, and includes running styles. A much better way of doing it, IMO.

[Robert Fischer]

It's an excellent guide to the probable pace scenario.

[Sapio]

Originally Posted by raybo

That would be interesting, but from what I've seen so far, the TFUS PP does a very good job of getting the leaders at the first call right, and often the 2nd call too.

I have been thinking of separating the horses by running style first, and then creating my own velocities based early pace picture (EPP) from there (I'm assuming this is similar to what TFUS is doing). Right now, I only use early velocities, through the 2nd call (without running styles considered), while the TFUS PP is at the 1st call, and includes running styles. A much better way of doing it, IMO.

Hi raybo

I see the stats for 1st and 2nd on their webpage. I'm thinking more along the line of the percentage of predictions of 1st call to actual-going deeper than 1st or 2nd.

Thomas Sapio

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I tested out the PPs a bit last year when they first came out, and was most interested to see how they would perform at Keeneland - but but missed out due to starting a new job and moving.

So, I decided to try them again and have done that twice over the last month.

Overall impression: very slick - the layout is pretty easy to get used to, sort of like when the Racing Times came out. The figs are awesome, of course, navigation is intuitive, and 90+% of the relevant content from other PPs is available. Having instant access to the charts is sweet. It's still taking me a bit more time to go through a race, but I'm getting faster. I have not used the notes and wagers tools, but with the goal of an online experience without paper, those should come in handy. I'm definitely keying in on some horses that run well that did not jump out to me with BRIS or DRF PPs.

Pricing: Some posters in the thread complained of the price rise when the introductory period was over, but 3 beans for a PP of this quality is great value. What's even better is the "day pass" rate of 6 beans for all tracks. This is awesome for recreational players like myself who can only play 4-8 days per month. The only downside is now I have to go reactivate my TVG account...

Printing: I don't print out the PPs, but this is a legitimate gripe. I have trouble using a tablet or ereader, and still prefer hardcopy when reading a book - but my large PC monitor works fine for the PPs. I can see where the pen/paper/pencil people want easy printouts.

Data Files: I don't know enough about the business to say what's the best model in terms of pricing, penetration of the unique content, and dilution of prices paid to say what's best for TimeFormUS. But like any business, it's always an advantage to create a moat and keep your product unique to optimize profits. So good for them. I'm mostly a virtual pen and paper 'capper, and so I'd rather see the figures retain more value, and distributing them in softcopy would only hurt that value.

Nitpicks: The biggest one was not have the current race come up when changing tracks, and that is being fixed. Others for me are: retain the M/L displayed with current odds, the post and field size section could be reduced to "3/7" or "1/12", odds the horse went off at in the PPs would be nice, and the workouts are small and not easy to read. I'd prefer them to be displayed by date in between the PPs.

But if nothing was changed from here on out, I'd still be giggling like a chimp.

Question: Maybe I missed it skimming through the 50 pages of comments in the thread, but is there going to an "Expanded PPs" some day versus the "Fast PPs"? Or will the site detect and allow displaying of more data for those not on a tablet or phone?

[RXB]

One niggle is that sometimes the trainer stats section doesn't load with the horse's PP's, especially when clicking quickly between a couple of horses. You'll get the PP's for the intended horse but the trainer stats will be for a different horse.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Sapio

Hi raybo

I see the stats for 1st and 2nd on their webpage. I'm thinking more along the line of the percentage of predictions of 1st call to actual-going deeper than 1st or 2nd.

Thomas Sapio

I see what you mean. That's kind of what I was getting at when I asked CJ if they had thought about adding something to each of the chiclets in the PP to denote projected improvement or decline in position at that 1st call. The ability to visually see if a horse is going forward or backward at the 1st call would be valuable information, regarding what might happen after the 1st call.

The notation above the chiclets regarding fast or slow expected pace, of course, will tend to project whether or not the early leaders are likely to prevail. I'm sure they have checked that stat during their testing of the PP, at some point.