Why has technology left handicapping in the dust?

[lefty359]

PA, maybe I'm missing the point, but doesn't HSH have everything you need? As I remember it has just about every factor there is and you can manipulate
those factors in you own personal method. You once did that with longshots.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

For personal use - no fee, no license.

For commercial use - a license is needed if the product uses electronic data from a data source (Bris, Drf, Equibase & others) internally and the end user obtains the output, because the terms of service for obtaining the data allow for personal use only. The cost of the data varies. I can connect anyone interested with someone if they want an idea of the cost if you send me a PM.

Some products use a shared fee agreement with companies like Bris, TrackMaster, Equibase or HDW and their product is covered under the license of those companies as well as sold on those sites.

Some products have the user purchase a commercially available file (such as those available from Bris and TrackMaster) which runs through the product on the user's end to create an output. This does not require a license because the data itself is for personal use.

That's more or less what I thought. It creates a signifcant barrier to entry.
Thx for the info.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

of course...that's my point

technology has left racing SO FAR behind, that it is only a very select few people who have access to this type of technology

Folks want to believe AI can't pick winners. We saw the very naive comment in this thread about AI and horses recently.

People who believe this are in for a rude awakening. If you thought the computer betting teams messed up racing, wait until the AI boys get finished with it. AI is just starting to hit its stride and become affordable to people with deep pockets.

Nvidia's current flagship AI processor only costs $10k...well within the reach of the "teams"

You are correct.

[formula_2002]

it's all before us. all we need do is apply the "if" "and" to the investigation for when and who to play.

=IF(AND(AND(AND(AND(BH146<1.5,BQ162>=3.035,BT147>-1,BT147<25)))),"BEAT THE FAVORITE BM ","----")

[headhawg]

Stop with your nonsense posts everywhere. Your formulas don't work. It is all post hoc analysis with no chance of working going foward. How many times do you need to be told this?

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Stop with your nonsense posts everywhere. Your formulas don't work. It is all post hoc analysis with no chance of working going foward. How many times do you need to be told this?

Just log(exp1) by someone offering value. You know what value is right?, put minds together and grow.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Stop with your nonsense posts everywhere. Your formulas don't work. It is all post hoc analysis with no chance of working going foward. How many times do you need to be told this?

for good or for bad, it's an honest effort posted in the "selections" forum.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...04#post2882204

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Just log(exp1) by someone offering value. You know what value is right?, put minds together and grow.

IF(VALUE(formula_2002 > 0)) THEN...

[SilverAlley]

There are millions of people who trade stocks, bonds, commodities. There's a big market for programs, books, how-to instructional. Traders have deep pockets. The daily volume is hundreds/thousands of times greater than horse racing. Bigger market, more demand, more people to fill the demand.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by SilverAlley

There are millions of people who trade stocks, bonds, commodities. There's a big market for programs, books, how-to instructional. Traders have deep pockets. The daily volume is hundreds/thousands of times greater than horse racing. Bigger market, more demand, more people to fill the demand.

It seems to me that we have entered an era when it is likely that there will be multiple cutting edge development teams rather than limited efforts targeting multiple clients. In other words, you'll probably never be able to buy the latest and greatest from a web offering.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

THE BIGGEST and BY FAR greatest deficiencies in the game are NOT on the handicapping side....We should all be better gamblers and that is rarely approached in the majority of systematic approaches to the game.

Truer words are seldom spoken.


I think most of us love figuring out who the winner will be and put little to no effort in figuring out how to make money on that knowledge.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's not really that hard to make money if you know who the winner is going to be...let's be real.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I'm not even talking about some money making black box system.

I'm talking about giving me the proper tools to discover and create my OWN money making method.

In 2023.

On my hardware that I built in 2021 (so it's already pretty obsolete...LOL)

What is the incentive for this?


If you are Fidelity or TD Ameritrade or someone else like that, you get money when your customer trades by screwing them on the price differential. If you charge them 10 cents more a share than "market" you make a fortune on the millions of trades per day. Also, you look at your customers that are making money over time and build a model based off their trades and then you let them do the brain-work and you profit mimicking their trades.


As stated elsewhere, if you have handicapping software that really works, why on earth would you sell it? Look at the NHC, 4 days work for $800k grand prize, all profit. If you were a developer and your software was really great, you would win this competition every year. I do not recall a software vendor ever winning this or any other major competition.


Have you tried ChatGPT? Ask it who will win an upcoming race. Or, try GPT4All or SuperAGI or some other software in that vain you can run on your local machine, see how it does.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It's not really that hard to make money if you know who the winner is going to be...let's be real.

I have a tendency to model a track and then bet $20 a race on 2 horses to win and consistently show a profit on this.

And then, I end up betting $200 on a pick 5, a couple $60 trifectas, and all kinds of other crazy exotics taking my modest profit and turning it into a losing day.


From reading Howard's old followups on Pace and Cap, I am not alone on doing this. If you look at my selection postings on there, it is not unusual for me to hit 5 out of 6 non maiden races in a given day using my top 2 picks, so I am not a bad handicapper.



Maybe if I bet more often, rather than recreationally, it would become habit to make smarter bets and not swing for the fences, who knows.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It's not really that hard to make money if you know who the winner is going to be...let's be real.

Sometimes it isn't a matter of whether you make money. It's a matter of how much you do or don't leave on the table.

One of the best bets I ever saw was the day that Easy Goer returned to the 3yo ranks two weeks after beating older horses. He was certain to be odds-on and did in fact end up at 2/5. Easy Goer was #5.

A friend of mine bet the P3 with All-5-All twice, All-5-3 twice, All-5-4 twice, with the 1st and 3rd legs being on the turf. Instead of settling for 2/5, he collected something like 15/1 on the P3 when he hit the P3 four times.

The people betting on Easy Goer to win at 2/5 left a lot of money on the table.