Mage was a clear overlay

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

When Mage crossed the wire first...it became obvious to me that this horse was a clear overlay. Up to that point though...I was a tad unsure.

Right? I'm reading this post like man there is alot of people who had Mage circled on their card after all

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Right? I'm reading this post like man there is alot of people who had Mage circled on their card after all

For people who had Forte on top I think Mage is a clear overlay at that price, for everyone else picking other horses I think it's more like something between fair value and wishful thinking. The ones who picked Mage on top before Forte was scratched, they get the gold star. The middle move was good stuff. I was betting Forte to win and then spread in doubles when he was scratched just for something to do for the Derby and since Mage's prep was the only thing that jumped out at me I would've had to have been brain-dead to not use him. I mean how does someone have Forte best and then shoehorn several other horses between the two of them? Anyone who is that sharp can dance on the head of a pin.

[thaskalos]

How many lightly-raced horses have looked 'very promising' going into the Kentucky Derby...only to get drubbed because they lacked "seasoning"?

[bobbyt62]

who are the obvious overlays in this years preakness , please ? actually , assuming initial post and the following ones , there will be just one obvious overlay . please tell us who that will be . you can post anytime between when the morning line is posted and saturday afternoon , may by 6 pm . thanks for another overlaid winner , in advance

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

How many lightly-raced horses have looked 'very promising' going into the Kentucky Derby...only to get drubbed because they lacked "seasoning"?

I think that was the issue that derailed the thinking of a lot of people on Mage.

Of course the last race did not come up particularly fast either. I think others concluded that it wasn't that Mage ran so well that day, but rather that Forte had run a bit subpar. The way horses are coming out of the race so far though, it looks more like the quality of the race was better than the final time speed figures indicated.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think that was the issue that derailed the thinking of a lot of people on Mage.

Of course the last race did not come up particularly fast either. I think others concluded that it wasn't that Mage ran so well that day, but rather that Forte had run a bit subpar. The way horses are coming out of the race so far though, it looks more like the quality of the race was better than the final time speed figures indicated.

That was my take. That Forte wasn't his best and probably wins by five plus if he's not all washed up and five wide.

Originally Posted by bobbyt62

who are the obvious overlays in this years preakness , please ? actually , assuming initial post and the following ones , there will be just one obvious overlay . please tell us who that will be . you can post anytime between when the morning line is posted and saturday afternoon , may by 6 pm . thanks for another overlaid winner , in advance

Yes, please. Now's the chance to avoid the redboard. Maybe if Mage takes an overabundance of money, then you might get an overlay from the ML on National Treasure. I'm not jumping up and down ready to play this race but have seen enough Derby chalks get beat here to not have tunnel vision.

[MJC922]

It's no surprise that judging who or who isn't an overlay is not so easy to do until a good estimate of the odds is available. Overbet favorites can create as many overlays or more than the actual horse's overlaid on their own merits. We can look at probables if someone wants me to post them 20 minutes before the race. We can then individually make some sort of calls either way which will vary widely by the type of handicapper and the info they use. In any given race overlay does not equal any better chance to win than underlay. Not even a whit better chance to finish first than to finish last fwiw.

If we must do this early I would say Baffert is probably the most likely overlay in any triple crown race. He certainly has made many handicappers including me look really bad over the years. His horse looks kind of tempting to me in here but I do have a slightly faster early pace figure on the 4, maybe that's not a deal breaker if the 4 folds early enough. I like Mage on talent but can't see why there would be an overlay price here, also wonder if the flow will be against him, Irad might even try to race ride if given the chance.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by burnsy

The bottom line is he was definitely an overlay . Didn’t listen to my friend who said he made a run at Forte and he’s out . He hit a pretty good pic 3 , I got squat. And it’s what I always want to play . The Florida circuit during the “preps “ always produce consistent contenders and winners . I avoid the Blue Grass and Wood because most of them are not good enough yet by May. The other smaller tracks occasionally come up , like last year , but the Florida Derby , Ark Derby and Santa Anita derby produce an overwhelming majority of winners recently. With Baffert out, it seems like that narrows it down. Like a fool I went with Kingsbarns instead . Figured a moderate pace but once again this year they tore it up early . I knew Kingsbarns and Verifying were probably dead after the first quarter. You sit with people that don’t know racing on derby day and they are saying , “Hey one of yours is in front .” But you know damn well they are going too fast for the experience they have at that distance. I screwed the pooch this year . Didn’t listen to my own theory and on to the next race . At least someone I was with hit it good .

And I really don’t believe in the , “has to race for foundation “ theory anymore. What foundation? 5 horses scratched. These trainers understand it’s a small window . They are finding results basically training up to the derby when the prep season starts . Break your Maiden and see if you can move up in 2 or 3 races . The other thing about doing this is no one will know who the best horse is yet . Some have improvement left in the tank . Others are not going to last the summer . I’ve been around for many a derby , I’ve never seen anything like this .

Burnsy - I've always appreciated your point of view.
Whether it is racing or sports related, you regularly make good sense.

With that in mind, and your estimate of Mage and the foundation angle,
do you believe that his limited resume now stands in his favor for the Triple Crown?
Hard to see how it does not - especially with a lack of reputable opponents.