Derby Pace?

[1GCFAN]

If I was TAP i would not ride Jose Ortiz again.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by 1GCFAN

If I was TAP i would not ride Jose Ortiz again.

If anything Todd 'owes' Jose one for taking the mount on a non-contender and doing his best to be a 'teammate'.

Once Irad's derby chalk scratched, it kind of screwed Jose. I doubt he hates Saez, but the deal certainly changed from setting a table for his brother and Repole which would be paid back.

If Jose/agent still want to ride Kingsbarns, health willing a shorter field and the right spots will probably give him some win or place contention opportunities.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Reincarnate was simply a horrific ML. I would have set him at 20/1 or at most 30/1. That was a simple price adjustment that will be re-corrected to 20/1 or more.

The horse taking $ is Two Phil's. This year's "Wise Guy" horse.

Reincarnate wasn't a win contender, but 50-1 was awful.
If Reincarnate wasn't a complete fraud (the 16-1 sham public workout win and then lucking-into breaking slow for that pace collapse Rebel), you'd usually auto-bet a 50-1 horse who was 3-1 in the Arkansas Derby and trained by Yakfert.

I don't completely trust the couple of other "oh we meant 15-1 was 50-1" either, as bad as some of the line was.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Yes, I do think the pace is going to be fast. ...

It's all relative. You know.... Compared to 2022 Kentucky Derby, it's obvious that it is highly probable that this race will be 'slow'. Compared to many of the preps and typical races, it's obvious that it is highly probable to be considered 'fast'.

A slug like Barber Road or Rich Strike was unlikely to get a setup in the 2022 Derby, and it is extremely unlikely that they will this year.

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Continuar isn't sending. Not sure that horse can run a sub :24 1st quarter even if whipped 10 times.

Kingsbarns isn't fast either. He was gifted the lead in the LA Derby and capitalized. Pletcher isn't going to waste him in a :45 or :46 and change duel.

it was insane to see Kingsbarns as 4th!!! choice.
I don't even trust myself, i may be mis-counting?

the instructions were never a 'sacrifice', even before Forte(Derby Favorite)(Irad Ortiz)(owner Repole) was forced to scratch under the political pressure.

Jose Ortiz wasn't asked to take the mount to sacrifice for his brother and a top owner who would pay him forward with a stakes mount, but his job was ensure that the pace wasn't unexpectedly gifted to a horse like Verifying or Derma, and to try to settle on the pace in a nice rhythm and take a shot at a win as well.
Kingsbarns wasn't a contender, but he had a long shot chance in a dream scenario of contending, and we had to get Forte home to victory. Forte was SO CLOSE they were smelling the roses.
Tapit Trice is a really good horse, he just doesn't have the style to contend for the exacta in the Derby.

Kingsbarns could contend in the Haskell or PA Derby or something who knows? Kingsbarns is a nice horse when he gets a field and a task and a pace scenario. He could end up being even better as he matures and uses more versatility. I have no idea if he can run on the Turf, but doesn't he seem like he'd have a possibility to do well on a G3 or whatever turf route w/out rival pace players... just rate on the lead and roll home? not a 'bad' horse by any means.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

The performance of Hit Show shouldn't be forgotten or lost in the shuffle

he ran a nice race

I bet him. He had similar pace ratings to Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, and Two Phil's, but a hell of a lot cheaper. The New York analysts (Aragona, Serling) were keen on him to get a piece. He was dismissed for coming out of the Wood, not to mention failing as favorite, but his Withers was a pretty good performance. He absolutely outran his odds and deserves more respect next time out—and he'll probably get it.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

it was insane to see Kingsbarns as 4th!!! choice.
I don't even trust myself, i may be mis-counting?

the instructions were never a 'sacrifice', even before Forte(Derby Favorite)(Irad Ortiz)(owner Repole) was forced to scratch under the political pressure.

Jose Ortiz wasn't asked to take the mount to sacrifice for his brother and a top owner who would pay him forward with a stakes mount, but his job was ensure that the pace wasn't unexpectedly gifted to a horse like Verifying or Derma, and to try to settle on the pace in a nice rhythm and take a shot at a win as well.
Kingsbarns wasn't a contender, but he had a long shot chance in a dream scenario of contending, and we had to get Forte home to victory. Forte was SO CLOSE they were smelling the roses.
Tapit Trice is a really good horse, he just doesn't have the style to contend for the exacta in the Derby.

Kingsbarns could contend in the Haskell or PA Derby or something who knows? Kingsbarns is a nice horse when he gets a field and a task and a pace scenario. He could end up being even better as he matures and uses more versatility. I have no idea if he can run on the Turf, but doesn't he seem like he'd have a possibility to do well on a G3 or whatever turf route w/out rival pace players... just rate on the lead and roll home? not a 'bad' horse by any means.

Sometimes you are rewarded nicely about being right.

I was right about Mage. First time in a long time I was right in the Derby.

[Robert Fischer]

Good call

[1GCFAN]

RF: I always respect your opinion.



I think the KIng will turn out to be a pretty nice horse and one who doesn't need the lead. Off course I haven't cashed a Derby ticket for a couple years!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by 1GCFAN

RF: I always respect your opinion.



I think the KIng will turn out to be a pretty nice horse and one who doesn't need the lead. Off course I haven't cashed a Derby ticket for a couple years!

Hope health cooperates and we see plenty more of Kingsbarns.

I agree with you about his style and versatility whether tracking/stalking or attending the pace. His dream trip is probably rating in the pocket in 3rd or whatever.

[f2tornado]

Yes, Kings could be much like TAPs Vino Rosso that did some of his best running in the 4 year old campaign.