Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 03-30-2023, 12:17 PM   #166
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I think the answer is obvious. Contrary to what some gullible people think, there are no "answers" that can be found in handicapping books. There are only questions and opinions about those questions. Books like Barry Meadow's allow those of us who don't use vast databases to figure out for ourselves how reliable our handicapping opinions really are.
I think we all know books aren't the answer to instant success.

I already mentioned this, but even though I think these kinds of studies are hugely important to answering handicapping questions, they get tricky, at least for me.

I've found that even when I answer handicapping questions with large samples, sometimes the game changes. What was true in the past is no longer true. The most obvious example is layoffs and days between races. There are horses I bet horses now I would have been keying against 30 years ago. Training changed.

I've also found things that outperformed the take fairly significantly (both positive and negative) with fairly large samples covering multiple years that didn't stop working in terms of predicting outcomes, but the odds changed and they were no longer of any real betting value. Trainer patterns are the most obvious, but I've had others.

So even when we learn from these studies, we are sometimes on very thin ice because so much is changing.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 03-30-2023 at 12:18 PM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 12:47 PM   #167
dnlgfnk
Registered User
 
dnlgfnk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think we all know books aren't the answer to instant success.

I already mentioned this, but even though I think these kinds of studies are hugely important to answering handicapping questions, they get tricky, at least for me.

I've found that even when I answer handicapping questions with large samples, sometimes the game changes. What was true in the past is no longer true. The most obvious example is layoffs and days between races. There are horses I bet horses now I would have been keying against 30 years ago. Training changed.

I've also found things that outperformed the take fairly significantly (both positive and negative) with fairly large samples covering multiple years that didn't stop working in terms of predicting outcomes, but the odds changed and they were no longer of any real betting value. Trainer patterns are the most obvious, but I've had others.

So even when we learn from these studies, we are sometimes on very thin ice because so much is changing.
What does not change for some of us is that the inner dynamics of a race determine winners and losers. Energy used or saved (pace, etc.) for acceleration roughly on the stretch turn through the finish, and position on the track affecting the use of/ saving of said energy.

Data helps form the intuitive judgement of a horse's performance and the ultimate question, "Is the horse higher or lower odds than he should be"?

I already have the mental database of a lifetime of race outcomes to affirm that this has superlative explanatory power in addition to my manual, painstaking study years ago, through one long season at a minor track comparing final odds to finishing position, of the nature of a racetrack as subtly favoring the outside on straightaways, and mathematically favoring the rail on turns.

What I did learn from literature and forums, and which I first witnessed in databases presented here, was the relative accuracy of public odds, far more than any individual approach. And most importantly, the crucial necessity of value handicapping over selection handicapping.
__________________
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
dnlgfnk is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 01:26 PM   #168
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
The game gradually changes, that's true. What worked yesterday may not work tomorrow...we all know that. But what we sometimes forget is that WE gradually change too. The circumstances of our own lives change over time...and that makes it difficult for us as bettors to play our "A" game all the time, as this difficult game demands. Family demands and changing financial conditions affect the way we play this game in ways that we sometimes fail to notice. As the inimitable Tom Ainslie once said..."we expect consistency from the horses when there is no consistency in ourselves ".

To me, "knowledge" isn't the main ingredient of success in this game. The fat man has all the knowledge that he needs in order to lose the weight, and yet he still wobbles on. All the knowledge in the world won't help you when you face the pressures that serious gambling brings on...it then becomes a game of discipline and self-confidence. Who among us can look in the mirror and tell himself that he has been playing this game to the best of his ability? I know that I can't.
__________________
Live to play another day.

Last edited by thaskalos; 03-30-2023 at 01:31 PM.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 02:04 PM   #169
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
All the knowledge in the world won't help you when you face the pressures that serious gambling brings on...it then becomes a game of discipline and self-confidence.
I agree with you.

I learned some of this in my teens in pool rooms.

I saw kids that were 15 years old that were willing to gamble their last $500 on a set at nine ball against a similar opponent, borrow money if they lost because they still thought they had the best of it, and continue firing away.

I saw experienced businessmen with more money than they knew what to do with whose game collapsed for $20 against an inferior opponent when they were in a tight game.

I think in all gambling you have to find your personal comfort level given your financial situation, personality, nervous system, confidence, and other things that can impact your decision making and finances.

My own betting level still varies from year to year, but I was far and away my most aggressive in my early 20s. I would sometimes bet my entire paycheck on a single horse if I was certain I had the best of it.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 02:16 PM   #170
Maximillion
Registered User
 
Maximillion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,114
[QUOTE=thaskalos;2867182] As the inimitable Tom Ainslie once said..."we expect consistency from the horses when there is no consistency in ourselves ".
/QUOTE]

Thats a great quote.
Maximillion is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 02:34 PM   #171
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I agree with you.

I learned some of this in my teens in pool rooms.

I saw kids that were 15 years old that were willing to gamble their last $500 on a set at nine ball against a similar opponent, borrow money if they lost because they still thought they had the best of it, and continue firing away.

I saw experienced businessmen with more money than they knew what to do with whose game collapsed for $20 against an inferior opponent when they were in a tight game.

I think in all gambling you have to find your personal comfort level given your financial situation, personality, nervous system, confidence, and other things that can impact your decision making and finances.

My own betting level still varies from year to year, but I was far and away my most aggressive in my early 20s. I would sometimes bet my entire paycheck on a single horse if I was certain I had the best of it.
People talk about having "confidence". The only way a horseplayer could have any "confidence", in the real sense of the word, is if he has had real success in this game for an appreciable length of time. If you had success in this game for a few years and then you lost your edge, then you can still bank on the "confidence" that you once had and sit down and figure out how you lost the edge over the game that you once held. But if you NEVER had any success in this game for any length of time, then...what possible "confidence" can you really have? We can't fake "confidence".

People talk about money management and how to manage a bankroll. You are only managing a bankroll if you consider yourself to be a winning player. If you don't think of yourself as a winning player, then you are not managing a "bankroll". You are managing an expense account.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 02:53 PM   #172
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
People talk about having "confidence". The only way a horseplayer could have any "confidence", in the real sense of the word, is if he has had real success in this game for an appreciable length of time. If you had success in this game for a few years and then you lost your edge, then you can still bank on the "confidence" that you once had and sit down and figure out how you lost the edge over the game that you once held. But if you NEVER had any success in this game for any length of time, then...what possible "confidence" can you really have? We can't fake "confidence".

People talk about money management and how to manage a bankroll. You are only managing a bankroll if you consider yourself to be a winning player. If you don't think of yourself as a winning player, then you are not managing a "bankroll". You are managing an expense account.
I don't have a problem admitting my confidence gets shaken easily. My past results don't mean much to me. I could never duplicate any of my biggest individual scores or best years now because those conditions no longer exist. What I can say is that I'm still working hard to find different inefficiencies in pools, better or different ways of thinking about things or measuring them, and still learning. But I don't know for certain if where I am now is still good enough. When I start going badly, I can't help but think the game may have passed me by permanently. When I start rolling again or learn something new it's reassuring. That's the personality "quirk" that keeps me from really stepping out and betting larger amounts and more races. It's not my past results.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 03-30-2023 at 02:56 PM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 04:18 PM   #173
Light
Veteran
 
Light's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,139
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post

I've also found things that outperformed the take fairly significantly (both positive and negative) with fairly large samples covering multiple years that didn't stop working in terms of predicting outcomes, but the odds changed and they were no longer of any real betting value.
This cliche is another wives tale. Same baloney I've heard from Beyer years ago.

If this angle or data is so great it's ROI is reduced in the win pool, it's not necessarily reduced in the exotics. We've all seen Pickems pay boxcars with 3/5 horses in the mix. And it can reduce the price of your exotic ticket if its such a "great" bet.

And if you don't play exotics, only win bets, then double your bet if you believe in it so much. There's no excuses you can't get around.
Light is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 05:13 PM   #174
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,174
Psychology is such a huge part of this game, at least for those serious at trying to make a consistent profit.

Same for trading. This is one of the best books I've ever read on the topic:

https://amzn.to/3KiBUNl

__________________
@paceadvantage | Support the site and become a today!
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 05:55 PM   #175
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Psychology is such a huge part of this game, at least for those serious at trying to make a consistent profit.

Same for trading. This is one of the best books I've ever read on the topic:

https://amzn.to/3KiBUNl

Thanks for that, I think it is possibly the BIGGEST part of the game for bettors. I mean you have to bet well obviously, but the psychological part can make that moot in a hurry.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 06:18 PM   #176
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
Quote:
Originally Posted by Light View Post
This cliche is another wives tale. Same baloney I've heard from Beyer years ago.

If this angle or data is so great it's ROI is reduced in the win pool, it's not necessarily reduced in the exotics. We've all seen Pickems pay boxcars with 3/5 horses in the mix. And it can reduce the price of your exotic ticket if its such a "great" bet.

And if you don't play exotics, only win bets, then double your bet if you believe in it so much. There's no excuses you can't get around.
I play mostly win and verticals, but based on your comment, I'm not sure you understand the issue.

Let's say I find a trainer angle that's been winning at 25% with an average payoff of $15, it has been going on for the last couple of years, and it fits a certain style of training. So I'm pretty sure it's not just noise. By the time I notice it, so probably have a few other people. So they will start getting bet lower. Maybe I'll have a good run for awhile depending on how frequent they are, but more people will notice it and handicappers will start mentioning the stat on TV and podcasts. Before you know it, they are still winning at 25% but the average payoff is $6.80. At that point it's almost useless information. And NO, there is no value in the exotics unless I have some other value oriented insight. People are not stupid enough to bet them to win and let the other payoffs be inflated.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2023, 11:58 PM   #177
Jake
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 507
The Mental Game of Trading by Jared Tendler is also very good.
Jake is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-31-2023, 12:12 AM   #178
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jake View Post
The Mental Game of Trading by Jared Tendler is also very good.
Back in day when I was a much younger man, the Dow was 500. If I never sold a stock that I bought I wound be even further ahead of the game today.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-31-2023, 12:28 AM   #179
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Back in day when I was a much younger man, the Dow was 500. If I never sold a stock that I bought I wound be even further ahead of the game today.
Look back at the 30 companies that made up the Dow back in your younger days...How many are still there as part of the Dow 30 ?....Not many.

Last edited by ReplayRandall; 03-31-2023 at 12:29 AM.
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-31-2023, 12:39 AM   #180
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,174
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Look back at the 30 companies that made up the Dow back in your younger days...How many are still there as part of the Dow 30 ?....Not many.
Ahhh...survivability bias is real

https://seekingalpha.com/article/207...ex-performance

Quote:
Enron, Worldcom Global Crossing, and endless dot com blowups maintained substantial influence in the Russell 1000 during Tick Data five year test period, 1998 - 12/31/2003. However by virtue of defining the universe (RUS1000) as of 12/31/2003, these companies, and their negative downside performance had been excluded. As time and distance from these points of failure increased so did the positive skew in the Index data from which many traders made their assertions and recommendations for investment decisions.

This is inherently problematic on two levels. On one level it creates a false level of optimism when looking at the Russell 1000 Index as the companies included in the index on or by 2003 excludes a significant number of major deadbeats, and in the same vein the companies that were replacements to the dead beats most likely exhibited extraordinary growth in a short time period, Type 2 bias e.g. Carmax which was added to the index in December 2002 and since they had a relatively short existence their 5 year historical analysis include returns of 477% in 2001 and 66% in 2000 this gets added to the mix and causes people deconstructing the indices to their basic components to drastically overstate an indexes relative performance.
must be nice to tout how well your index does and be able to remove the horrid performers and replace them with mega-stars every few years...
__________________
@paceadvantage | Support the site and become a today!

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 03-31-2023 at 12:42 AM.
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:46 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.