Mo Donegal - how fast?

[Bullet Plane]

Mo D smoked a 1:47 4/5 time in the Wood.

He received a 96 Beyer. Mediocre fig.

that was race 8 on the card, on race 10 the Gazelle, the fillies ran a 1:50 2/5.

They got a 86 fig.

From the time on race 8 to race 10 is 13 fifths or 23 Beyer points.

86 plus 23 = 109.

apparently they used a different variant for the races.

It wasn't a blow out win. Skippylongstocking, A.P. Secret, and Barese only lost by 3.5 to 5 lengths. The best these colts have ran were about 88 before. Taking the 5 lengths x 1.8 and added to the 88 would give you a 97. which is about the figure given. It does make sense, but still that is a large difference for those two races.

Some figure makers have that race with higher figs.

The paces were much different: a 1:11 2/5 for the 6f in the colt race vs a 1:13 4/5 6f for the fillies. Perhaps it was pace adjusted.

This in another one of those head scratching twists that gets thrown into the mix. Anyone out these with a read on this?

[classhandicapper]

From what I can see, Beyer has the track changing speed practically all day long. I think that might be one of those days to pay close attention to the quality of the fields and how horses are coming out of the races rather than taking the speed figures too literally. TFUS has the race a bit faster.

I think he was visually impressive in the Wood, but he wasn't the best 3yo in Florida, Skippylongstocking and A.P.'s Secret don't exactly look like killers, and Barese disappointed next out against much weaker (albeit at 6F). Plus, it certainly didn't hurt him that he was able to save all that ground for his rally on that day. I don't hate him because he's probably going to get a good setup and seems to be moving forward, but he's not someone I would be keying on either. He might be someone I'd use in verticals for setup reasons to go along with whoever I choose to key on. I want to see the final field and posts first.

[geroge.burns99]

Everyone is taking away M D's big race number.....

watch him blow the derby field away!!

[cj]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Everyone is taking away M D's big race number.....

watch him blow the derby field away!!

It was a tough day, but I'm comfortable with the relatively fast number I gave him. I'm not surprised his GP races are slow, that is a terrible track and set up for that horse.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by cj

It was a tough day, but I'm comfortable with the relatively fast number I gave him. I'm not surprised his GP races are slow, that is a terrible track and set up for that horse.

Were there horses that came back from that day and raced?

beside that stakes race

[cj]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Were there horses that came back from that day and raced?

beside that stakes race

A few on dirt, five I think, including a couple at Parx yesterday. So far so good but nothing too definitive one way or the other.

[geroge.burns99]

heres my take....

Speed was golden that day 4/9 whom ever was 1st or 2nd at the EP mark...

WON

For MoD to come from last showed an extraordinary race and should have left fig alone...

[Tom]

If he goes off at 3-1, the fig is too fast.
If he goes 6-1, it was probably a good fig.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Tom

If he goes off at 3-1, the fig is too fast.
If he goes 6-1, it was probably a good fig.

Mo and Zandon went guts out in the Remsen in an amazing race.

Mo ran home golden his last race, as did Zandon.

Really like both.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

If he goes off at 3-1, the fig is too fast.
If he goes 6-1, it was probably a good fig.

I like this thinking, and I'm a figure maker.

For the Derby, doubt anyone is under 9-2 this year.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by cj

I like this thinking, and I'm a figure maker.

For the Derby, doubt anyone is under 9-2 this year.

Mattress Mack has a guaranteed $3M wager to W.

Somebody will be 5/2 to 7/2.

[f2tornado]

It was the fastest raw clock Wood since Bellamy Road trounced by 17 lengths in 2005 with the 4th place horse 26 lengths back and 5th 33 lengths back. Mo beat EV by a neck and the 4th and 5th place horses who are not exactly world beaters were only five lengths (roughly a second behind) which would also make them faster than any Wood horse since Bellamy Road and only two lengths slower than Empire Maker. That is exceedingly unlikely which is why Beyer gave the lower figure. Equibase scored it a 103 which is historically a so-so figure for the race. I can't use the horse on top but it's gonna be hard for me to toss him from the tri or super given how well he ran late.

[azeri98]

I think he's a good horse but his running style doesn't fit well in the Derby. I think he will be too far back. With a normal field size I wouldn't care but with 20 horses he will he to have a great trip and be lucky.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by cj

I like this thinking, and I'm a figure maker.

For the Derby, doubt anyone is under 9-2 this year.

there are 6 real good horses to this race. i am not counting the Japanese horse who blew winning the Ky. Derby by running in Dubai.

the post positions will make a big difference in this race. i make MO DONEGAL my top pick so far. he can lose, but he might be a good bet if he is at the top of the price range between the 6 other horses.

[MNslappy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

there are 6 real good horses to this race.

Taiba
Messier
Mo Donegal
Zandon
Epicenter
Tiz the Bomb