speed often underlaid_________?

[Half Smoke]

_____________


this is just a general observation of mine and not backed by any statistics

just seems to me that the speed so often gets caught and/or fades and many times fades badly; and that the public seems to love speed - causing overlays on others

and I'm not just talking about cheap speed - also the classier nags

just wanted to hear some opinions about this - many of you guys are experts - more expert than me_________thanks



.

[lefty359]

I agree. The General Public is obsessed with speed.

[Bustin Stones]

3 things to consider:
firstly, if you are in the lead, your opponent is spotting you distance and the longer they wait, the less distance to overcome it
secondly, you cannot block a horse if you are positioned behind that horse
thirdly, being part of the lead generally gives you a shorter route to the wire

[lefty359]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

3 things to consider:
firstly, if you are in the lead, your opponent is spotting you distance and the longer they wait, the less distance to overcome it
secondly, you cannot block a horse if you are positioned behind that horse
thirdly, being part of the lead generally gives you a shorter route to the wire

True but as the man said, these horses are often underlaid I'd rather have a horse that lays just off he speed.

[Bustin Stones]

For the horse that's spotted others the lead more has to go right to win. Which is not a problem in a 2 horse race. But, we do not know which of the trailers is the one catching the break of not being blocked or not suffering from the longer route or not able to make up the spot. So, the laggards are entitled to more generous odds. If you happen to pick the right one, it's all good.

[Tom]

I love the comme'nt The Mig makes frequently on ADR, about being in front "They have to go where I've already been."

It's amazing how many riders today just don't get it.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

_____________


this is just a general observation of mine and not backed by any statistics

just seems to me that the speed so often gets caught and/or fades and many times fades badly; and that the public seems to love speed - causing overlays on others

and I'm not just talking about cheap speed - also the classier nags

just wanted to hear some opinions about this - many of you guys are experts - more expert than me_________thanks



.

It depends on the pace scenario.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by lefty359

I agree. The General Public is obsessed with speed.

becuase it is IMPORTANT IN EVERY RACE RRUN

[Half Smoke]

____________


it's only one race and it doesn't prove anything - but anyway

Keeneland 4/10 - race 7 - the Palisades stakes - 5.5 furlongs

Twilight Gleaming was made the 4/5 fave - he had won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at 5 furlongs but he lost some ground in the stretch - now he had to go longer

Slipstream who won the race - was let go at more than 5/2 -

he finished 6th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile mile but he was only beaten by about 2.5 lengths and he gained ground in the stretch

Slipstream had a higher highest Brisnet speed rating by IIRC 6 points

Slipstream had won the Futurity Stakes at Belmont at 6 furlongs

it seemed obvious to me, and I realize many may disagree, that Slipstream should have been the fave

and up against Slipstream and 5 others, 2 of whom were bet down to about 6/1 and 4/1 there was no way imo Twilight Gleaming deserved 4/5



.

[lamboguy]

speed is a big weapon when it comes to horse racing. with the CAW in full gear, you don't find the overlay that once got with the back of the pack horses.

[mountainman]

Most players start scanning for "lone" speeds about 2 seconds after cracking the form. And lots of them believe they invented the concept.

[cj]

Lone speed is overbet. Speed is not.

[pandy]

Speed Figures are overbet. I agree with CJ, lone speed or the obvious main speed are overbet. But generally speaking, over the long run, you're going to tear up less losing tickets if you play mostly speed horses that aren't the favorite. Or to put it another way, horses that have speed and are also overlays.

Just because a horse is an E or EP type doesn't mean that it will be on the lead. Many times these horses leave well and sit right behind the frontrunners, then inherit the lead when the pacesetter backs up. They just get better trips than closers.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by lefty359

I agree. The General Public is obsessed with speed.

If the main speed of the race is underlaid, that’s means there are better prices on the other contenders.

So I know this is a radical suggestion.

But if you have accurate pace numbers, chuck the top speed in the race
And concentrate on some of the others.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

becuase it is IMPORTANT IN EVERY RACE RRUN

I agree, however this game is about money not picking winners.

Why bet on an underlay? Because he is the controlling speed?

I don’t want to bet any (like zero) underlays.

Allan