Sports Betting- head-to-head wager on picks by Andy Serling and Jonathon Kinchen." - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Andy Asaro · 03-31-2022, 08:01 AM

$w1fT · 03-31-2022, 02:50 PM

Not for nothing, and no offense to TLG, but lowering takeout on high churn bets should be priority #1 for any track executive and not frivolous prop bets.

PaceAdvantage · 03-31-2022, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by $w1fT

Not for nothing, and no offense to TLG, but lowering takeout on high churn bets should be priority #1 for any track executive and not frivolous prop bets.

What about offense to Kinchen?

$w1fT · 03-31-2022, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

What about offense to Kinchen?

He's OK. But I'm a fan of TLG's work.

PaceAdvantage · 03-31-2022, 02:57 PM

And by the way, what does takeout rates on existing horse wagers have to do with a discussion of opportunities in sports betting?

It's like asking TLG why the toilet isn't working on the 2nd floor when he's at the track giving his analysis on-air. (Which has probably happened, knowing the fan base)

castaway01 · 03-31-2022, 03:06 PM

Player props are standard bets in major sports. If you're interested in capturing a sports gambling fanbase, I think a jockey or trainer prop (jockey or trainer over/under a certain number of wins on a card, for example, or in a week, or at a meet) would be pretty smart to try because today's gamblers are used to making that kind of bet. No late odds drops either.

I don't see the harm in trying it.

$w1fT · 03-31-2022, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And by the way, what does takeout rates on existing horse wagers have to do with a discussion of opportunities in sports betting?

It's like asking TLG why the toilet isn't working on the 2nd floor when he's at the track giving his analysis on-air. (Which has probably happened, knowing the fan base)

Because one of racing's biggest problems is that it is focused on the wrong things.

The horse bettor wants takeout lowered. If he wants to lay -110 on a 50/50 proposition he will bet the NFL.

Racing thinks that bets like those will attract the casual fan. They don't know who TLG or JK are.

It's a nice thought, sure. But if you ask every horseplayer if they'd rather 10% takeout on WPS bets or to be able to bet the o/u on Luis Saez wins on the day, they will take the takeout every time.

castaway01 · 03-31-2022, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by $w1fT

Because one of racing's biggest problems is that it is focused on the wrong things.

The horse bettor wants takeout lowered. If he wants to lay -110 on a 50/50 proposition he will bet the NFL.

Racing thinks that bets like those will attract the casual fan. They don't know who TLG or JK are.

It's a nice thought, sure. But if you ask every horseplayer if they'd rather 10% takeout on WPS bets or to be able to bet the o/u on Luis Saez wins on the day, they will take the takeout every time.

But takeout is never going to drop to 10% because most of the takeout already goes to off-track sites and if you cut takeout you cut into rebates, which are the main reason the whales bet. So what's the point of talking about something that financially is impossible to make happen?

PaceAdvantage · 03-31-2022, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by $w1fT

Because one of racing's biggest problems is that it is focused on the wrong things.

What is racing focused on, incidentally?

Looking to capture part of the sports betting fanbase isn't a bad thing. And I doubt you could honestly say they are FOCUSED on the sports betting thing.

It's a side-hustle at best.

So what are they FOCUSED on?

Andy Asaro · 03-31-2022, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And by the way, what does takeout rates on existing horse wagers have to do with a discussion of opportunities in sports betting?

It's like asking TLG why the toilet isn't working on the 2nd floor when he's at the track giving his analysis on-air. (Which has probably happened, knowing the fan base)

When horse racing gets sports betting the whole point would be to get as many sports bettors as possible to give racing a try. Very few will do it for any length of time at the current takeout rates.

PaceAdvantage · 03-31-2022, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

When horse racing gets sports betting the whole point would be to get as many sports bettors as possible to give racing a try. Very few will do it for any length of time at the current takeout rates.

What takeout rate do you think would attract the most sports bettors?

Don't sports bettors pay like a 10% vig at most? I don't bet sports, so I don't know...especially the current situation at all the new online books (which may or may not be higher or lower than usual in terms of vig or takeout).

Can horse racing even survive at a comparable 10% takeout rate?

jay68802 · 03-31-2022, 05:33 PM

I think it sounds like a lot of fun.

Andy Asaro · 03-31-2022, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

What takeout rate do you think would attract the most sports bettors?

Don't sports bettors pay like a 10% vig at most? I don't bet sports, so I don't know...especially the current situation at all the new online books (which may or may not be higher or lower than usual in terms of vig or takeout).

Can horse racing even survive at a comparable 10% takeout rate?

I'd start with 14% takeout on WPS and Exactas and pay breakage to the penny. If the revenue trajectory is going up another reduction may be warranted

classhandicapper · 03-31-2022, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

I'd start with 14% takeout on WPS and Exactas and pay breakage to the penny. If the revenue trajectory is going up another reduction may be warranted

These things can get very tricky to measure.

It might take awhile for the 14% to have any noticeable impact. So they'd have to be patient. It may also just shift money from one pool to another or even one track to another track in a race to the bottom. We've seen that kind of thing with state taxes where tax breaks don't necessarily attract new money. They just shift the same money from one state to another.

Track Phantom · 03-31-2022, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...97313982443522

If this is an attempt to attract sports bettors, not a chance in high hell. The assumption is that sports bettors would transition to bet on horse racing since they have a -110 50/50 option. This is pure and utter idiocy. Sports bettors don't bet on horse racing mainly because of a myriad of other factors (too numerous to even mention here).

Horse racing has one unique betting situation that you can't really get with sports betting. You can win a lot of money with a small investment (life changing stuff) without having to get impossibly lucky. There should be LESS betting opportunities as it waters down the pools.

I don't blame anyone for thinking outside of the box but when is someone going make a serious impact instead of these tired half-hearted ideas that will do little more than eat into more attractive pools? Might as well bring back horse racing roulette. Gotta run, the next Quinella is coming up.