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Old 10-11-2019, 09:51 AM   #1
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Tote board picks

Will be using tote analysis only today for Laurel. Not using pp's because I don't have them. Will focus on the 4 maidens, but will do a few others. Might miss R7-Msw due to time conflict. Later.
Note: Over the next week or two, I will attempt to do at least 20 of these plays to give an idea of its worth(or not).
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:59 AM   #2
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Laurel-R1-Mcl 10K-7f-F&M 3Up

Race 1-Laurel-Tote analysis
No.---ML-----ML rank
6-1-----4/5
9-2------3
6-1-----4/5
3-1------2
10-1-----6
8-5------1
20-1-----7
Using a combo rank for 2 horses at 6-1 ML's. Normally usually l.r. odds to break ties. not that important overall. more explanation later.
NOTE: these aren't the picks, just the baseline I start with, more later closer to post time.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:04 AM   #3
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R2-Lrl-baseline

R2-Lrl-5-1/2f-St. O.C. 25k
No.----ML------Rank
----5-1-------3
----6-1-------4/5/6
----8-1-------7
----5-2-------1
----6-1-------4/5/6
----3-1-------2
----6-1-------4/5/6
Kind of thing I see at with Laurel's ML fairly often, they lump several horses into one ML.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:12 AM   #4
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R3-Laurel-Maiden Clm

R3-Lrl-1M-Mcl-25K-3Up
No.----ML-----Rank
----2-1------1
----6-1------5
----5-2------2
----4-1------3
----10-1-----6
-----9-2-----4
Hoping we don't have a lot of scratches on some of these short fields.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:17 AM   #5
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R4-Laurel

R4-Lrl-6f-AOC-50K-F&M
No.-----ML------Rank
-----3-1-------1
----12-1------7
-----6-1-------5/6
-----7-2-------2/3
-----9-2-------4
-----6-1-------5/6
-----7-2-------2/3
Again with same ML's problem-scratches will probably elim. some of them.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:35 AM   #6
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Race 7 -Laurel-MSW

R7-2 y.o.-MSW-1M
No.-----ML-----Rank
-----15-1----9
-----8-1-----6/7
-----5-1------3
-----8-1-----6/7
-----6-1-----4/5
-----12-1-----8
------6-1-----4/5
------7-2------1
------30-1----10
-----9-2------2
Again with the multiple ML's. This is race, I might miss doing, or at last possible minute.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:44 AM   #7
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R8--Lrl-MdClm-14K

R8-Lrl-5-1/2f-MdClm-F&M
No.-----ML-----Rank
-----20-1----8/9
-----10-1----5/6
------2-1-----1
-----15-1-----7
-----8-1------4
-----10-1----5/6
-----9-2------3
-----5-2------2
-----20-1----8/9
Last maiden at Lrl. Not sure I can still stream Laurel's feed live, it seems to be restricted at times.
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Old 10-11-2019, 11:20 AM   #8
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Correction, Race 10 Lrl.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
R10-Lrl-5-1/2f-MdClm-F&M
No.-----ML-----Rank
-----20-1----8/9
-----10-1----5/6
------2-1-----1
-----15-1-----7
-----8-1------4
-----10-1----5/6
-----9-2------3
-----5-2------2
-----20-1----8/9
Last maiden at Lrl. Not sure I can still stream Laurel's feed live, it seems to be restricted at times.
Corrected to Race 10
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Old 10-11-2019, 11:37 AM   #9
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Race 9-Lrl-Mdclm-10K-7f

R9- Maiden Clm-I missed this one originally
No.------ML------Rank
------6-1------5/6
------9-2-------2
------5-1------3/4
-----10-1-------7
-----12-1------8/9
------5-1------3/4
------4-1-------1
------15-1-----10
------12-1-----8/9
----20-1-----11
-----6-1-----5/6
Not often you see the lowest ML at 4-1, Lots of 5's, 6's, and 12-1's again. So I'm thinking that ML person sees a chaos race, we'll see if tote is rapidly changing for favorite-ship.
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Old 10-11-2019, 01:06 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
Race 1-Laurel-Tote analysis
No.---ML-----ML rank
6-1-----4/5
9-2------3
6-1-----4/5
3-1------2
10-1-----6
8-5------1
20-1-----7
Using a combo rank for 2 horses at 6-1 ML's. Normally usually l.r. odds to break ties. not that important overall. more explanation later.
NOTE: these aren't the picks, just the baseline I start with, more later closer to post time.
What I'm seeing at this point, @5 mtp
+4 odds rank +33% EM$ drop.
had an 80% drop in early money, which is always dangerous, it wasn't bet across all pools, just for the win.
I'd lean more towards the and box it with and in exacta.
At 5-1, I'd probably make a win bet on for a saver
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Old 10-11-2019, 01:39 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
R2-Lrl-5-1/2f-St. O.C. 25k
No.----ML------Rank
----5-1-------3
----6-1-------4/5/6
----8-1-------7
----5-2-------1
----6-1-------4/5/6
----3-1-------2
----6-1-------4/5/6
Kind of thing I see at with Laurel's ML fairly often, they lump several horses into one ML.
Okay, Here's what I'm seeing @ 5 MTP
+6 odds rank, + 50% EM drop-
Huge 75% EM, and favorite
mild +2 odds rank
is key for W/P- and exacta box. I don't have a problem dutching tghe and for win

in Race 3 looks strong at this point.
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Old 10-11-2019, 02:08 PM   #12
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R3

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
R3-Lrl-1M-Mcl-25K-3Up
No.----ML-----Rank
----2-1------1
----6-1------5
----5-2------2
----4-1------3
----10-1-----6
-----9-2-----4
Hoping we don't have a lot of scratches on some of these short fields.
R2-I said at bottom of last race, that I liked the early in the betting.
+5 odds rank adv.+30% EM drop.
had a 80% EM$ and current favorite at 13 MTP
+3 odds rank adv.
May do a dutch W on & but is choice. On some short fields if the odds remain, I may do a / All box with extra boxes with favorite.
Prob. do a / exacta box
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Old 10-11-2019, 02:47 PM   #13
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R4-Lrl

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
R4-Lrl-6f-AOC-50K-F&M
No.-----ML------Rank
-----3-1-------1
----12-1------7
-----6-1-------5/6
-----7-2-------2/3
-----9-2-------4
-----6-1-------5/6
-----7-2-------2/3
Again with same ML's problem-scratches will probably elim. some of them.
I have 2 horses at +3 odds rank advantages & 1 horse +4.
+3/+4 adv. no EM$, but the no. 1 lowest DD odds-Win
+3 adv. and 58% EM drop-Win-dutch
+2/+3 adv. and mild EM at 16%
I'd play ex. box
May box the favorite with/ looks to be the
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Old 10-11-2019, 03:10 PM   #14
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R5-Lrl

Didn't get a chance to review this before hand, but the My Queen Michelle, looks to be the favorite with even money early at 6-1 ML, and easily the lowest odds ranks in the doubles.
+3 or +5 odds rank adv, and 84% EM drop; since we again have three 6-1 ML's.
2nd choice @ +2/+4 rank adv.
Hopefully be back in time for R7- MSW.
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Old 10-11-2019, 03:54 PM   #15
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R6-Lrl

+5/+6 Odds rank favorite and 60% EM$ WP and box with 2 favors. in exactas
$1 box with the rest
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