The Preakness Stakes

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

He'll probably be a fair price in the Preakness.

May have run bigger than Mo Donegal in the Wood. Him not winning the Wood, and Epicenter's solid Derby, and Secret Oath's satisfying Oaks win may help the price some.

If Rich Strike was in the Preakness, Early Voting may have been an auto-bet, on value alone.

Bet him in the Wood, and he took late money down to 5/2. He is pretty much an auto-bet for me already.

He moves forward from his 3rd career race in a G1, I personally see him as the one to beat. The rest will likely have to come and get him.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

He'll probably be a fair price in the Preakness.

May have run bigger than Mo Donegal in the Wood. Him not winning the Wood, and Epicenter's solid Derby, and Secret Oath's satisfying Oaks win may help the price some.

If Rich Strike was in the Preakness, Early Voting may have been an auto-bet, on value alone.

Absolutely correct

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Post positions drawn, field set.

9 horses entered. Epicenter draws the 8 hole and installed as the 6/5 ML favorite.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ckeys_odds_123

8 Epicenter 6/5
5 Early Voting 7/2
4 Secret Oath 9/2
1 Simplification 6/1
2 Creative Minister 10/1
7 Armagnac 12/1
9 Skippylongstocking 20/1
6 Happy Jack 30/1
3 Fenwick 50/1

Creative Minister's connections paid $150K supplement to enter

[Bustin Stones]

I think about Simplification's effort in the Derby. He was 15th into that pace and passed 9 or 10 horses late. Was this the kind of effort that would effect him 2 weeks later? Then, I compare it to Epicenter's effort. Are we sure Epicenter is ready to put in a big effort so soon? If they each stalk, are we certain that Epicenter can outkick Simplification?

[burnsy]

I’m pretty sure . Simplification runs that even “hit the board “ kind of race vs this caliber a lot. You can use him in the exacta but I don’t know about on top. Face it, Epicenter’s race in the Derby is a few strides short of winning. Off that pace , it really is not a big disappointment. I don’t even think he’ll be 6/5, probably be lower. So, that’s a problem in this race . Epicenter has an almost perfect record as far as firing every time. The pace and set up along with the level of competition … makes him hard to overlook here. He most certainly will get the jump on Simplification barring a problem IMO. I think chalk is gonna be tough here.

[MarylandMan]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

I think about Simplification's effort in the Derby. He was 15th into that pace and passed 9 or 10 horses late. Was this the kind of effort that would effect him 2 weeks later? Then, I compare it to Epicenter's effort. Are we sure Epicenter is ready to put in a big effort so soon? If they each stalk, are we certain that Epicenter can outkick Simplification?

Not so sure indeed. Simp had a not so good KD (never thought he should have been 35-1 no way) trip from the start, but when a space opened up on the far turn, Ortiz asked and the horse responded. Had a chance but with Rich Strike on the rail and him 5 wide and pushed out even farther in the stretch by another, it became impossible to make up for the early lag-behind.

Ortiz goes to EV and now Johnny V takes over. Not sure if that means Ortiz knows who has the best chance or if it's an under Brown contract scenario. My guess is he had a choice but really don't know. Picking up JV ain't the worst thing in the world regardless. Has a LOT of work to do in here but can move forward and pick up a piece and dare I say, a win. I like him under Epi and EV.

[zico20]

I know a lot of people like to bet longshots to win. If you do in the Preakness it has been an ugly streak. In the entire history of the race there have only been two winners that have gone off at 20-1 or higher. It has been 46 years since it has been accomplished by Master Derby in 1975 at 23-1. Then you have to go back a long ways to 1925 when Coventry pulled it off at 21-1. I suppose you can use the logic that one is due again so have at it if you take that approach.

About Coventry, the horse pulled a tendon the day before the race and the trainer decided it wasn't bad so they ran him. Today if a horse catches a cold they are out of commission for a week or two. How things have changed.

We have some who are thinking Epicenter may bounce after that hard race. I remember Temperence Hill winning the Belmont making his third start in two weeks. Epicenter won't bounce, he is going to run another terrific race. Two thirds of this field have run within the last 15 days. The exceptions are Fenwick, Early Voting and Skippylongstocking. If anyone bounces it will be Secret Oath.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by MarylandMan

Not so sure indeed. Simp had a not so good KD (never thought he should have been 35-1 no way) trip from the start, but when a space opened up on the far turn, Ortiz asked and the horse responded. Had a chance but with Rich Strike on the rail and him 5 wide and pushed out even farther in the stretch by another, it became impossible to make up for the early lag-behind.

Ortiz goes to EV and now Johnny V takes over. Not sure if that means Ortiz knows who has the best chance or if it's an under Brown contract scenario. My guess is he had a choice but really don't know. Picking up JV ain't the worst thing in the world regardless. Has a LOT of work to do in here but can move forward and pick up a piece and dare I say, a win. I like him under Epi and EV.

I’m pretty much looking at the same ones you are. And like Zico said it’s a tough race to go with bombs on top. The results just say so. But like anything in racing it’s possible. This year kind of reminds me of Giacomo and Afleet Alex. In the derby Alex was a bit short of winning and had some bad racing luck. In the Preakness he almost went down but won by daylight . In the Belmont he rolled again . He lost the Derby but was by far the best 3 yo out there. Just looking at Epicenter and his record , he still might be just better. We will find out shortly. I hope the weather turns out good to really see .

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by zico20

I know a lot of people like to bet longshots to win. If you do in the Preakness it has been an ugly streak. In the entire history of the race there have only been two winners that have gone off at 20-1 or higher. It has been 46 years since it has been accomplished by Master Derby in 1975 at 23-1. Then you have to go back a long ways to 1925 when Coventry pulled it off at 21-1. I suppose you can use the logic that one is due again so have at it if you take that approach.

About Coventry, the horse pulled a tendon the day before the race and the trainer decided it wasn't bad so they ran him. Today if a horse catches a cold they are out of commission for a week or two. How things have changed.

We have some who are thinking Epicenter may bounce after that hard race. I remember Temperence Hill winning the Belmont making his third start in two weeks. Epicenter won't bounce, he is going to run another terrific race. Two thirds of this field have run within the last 15 days. The exceptions are Fenwick, Early Voting and Skippylongstocking. If anyone bounces it will be Secret Oath.

Not sure what kind of prices you are looking for, but 5 of the last 9 Preakness winners have won at odds of 6/1 or higher including the last 2 years of $25+ winners.

[classhandicapper]

Horses that run well in the Derby typically run well in the Preakness also. They will sometimes switch positions if the trips change, but if I was going to make a general rule, all else being equal, I'd rather have a horse proven in a 20 horse high quality Derby field than a new shooter from cheaper races.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Not sure what kind of prices you are looking for, but 5 of the last 9 Preakness winners have won at odds of 6/1 or higher including the last 2 years of $25+ winners.

Lets dissect those, shall we!

2021, Rombauer won. The three top Derby horses skipped the Preakness. Midnight Bourbon, a good horse who ran second, couldn't win a race to save his life. Medina Spirit, who turned out to be a very good horse, was a longshot in the Derby who many felt wouldn't win the Preakness. Concert Tour was a joke being bet down. MS was the 2.40 to 1 favorite. Not a surprise the top three favorites didn't win.

2020 The race was run in October so I don't consider it at all. Swiss Skydiver had four weeks off going in instead of two. Who knows who would have won if it was in May. Irrelevant result that can't be used.

2019 War of Will won. He was the third betting choice behind a 5-2 favorite in Improbable. Maximum Security and Country House didn't run. Either did Code of Honor or Tacitus. Wide open race with a vulnerable favorite that wasn't all that good at the time although Improbable turned out to be a really good horse as a four year old.

2017 Cloud Computing won. What a joke Always Dreaming being 4-5. He sucked! Never won another race. Classic Empire was the clear second choice coming off of a 9 length defeat in the Derby. Rarely does a horse that loses the Derby by that much win the Preakness. When they lose by that much it is hard to back them in the Preakness. The third choice was 9-1. No surprise a middle of the road odds horse won.

2013 Oxbow won. You had a totally overrated Orb sucking up all the money at 3-5. Another Derby winner who never won again. The other eight horses in the race were all between 8-1 and 22-1. Itsmyluckyday was the second choice who was beaten 22 lengths in the Derby. It was a wide open affair after Orb. So no surprise the winner was over 6-1. It was inevitable.

Out of the five times the Preakness winner was 6-1 or more there was a valid reason for each one. Most Preakness winners were logical going back to Point Given in 2001 except Shakleford. 2006 was when Barbaro broke down as the 1-2 favorite. Bernardini was a price but he clearly was the best horse that the public blew. Saturday is back to having a chalk win or another obvious contender.

[Gerard02]

If you follow Stan Caris, Epicenter just misses qualifying on the Preakness Indicator #1. He finished his final 1/4 mile of the Derby in 25.64. That’s about 25 3/5th seconds. I’m not going to toss him, he ran such a great race, but I can give him any points based on Caris’ rules. I remember in 2019, Country House just missed his final 1/8th and 1/4 miles by Micro seconds. I placed him I’m my exotics and win bets, anyway. Don’t know if I’m being too strict, but using other handicapping tools, it would be crazy to just toss him. So, I’ll go with my picks

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Horses that run well in the Derby typically run well in the Preakness also. They will sometimes switch positions if the trips change, but if I was going to make a general rule, all else being equal, I'd rather have a horse proven in a 20 horse high quality Derby field than a new shooter from cheaper races.

Twenty or thirty years ago, this was true. But that's when horses were trained up to the Derby properly, and the connections were wanting a Triple Crown race for breeding purposes. Now we have just seen a Derby with multiple horses with two and three starts (and getting bet), with the winner loving the plastic to dirt angle.

Zico lists 5 Peakness winners in the last 10 years that didn't fare well in the Derby (war of will getting interfered with though), but now proclaims that the second place finisher with a sub-par Beyer in a sub-par field is a lock. Well, it's hard to argue that ON PAPER, Epicenter is the most accomplished mule in the race. But of course they don't run the races on paper.

Epicenter should win, but based on racing's trends over the last 40 years, I would hardly be shocked if he bounced and ran 6th. The Derby-Preakness angle works for fit and CLASSY horses. I'm just not a believer (yet) that Epicenter is that good.

I've been wrong before.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Twenty or thirty years ago, this was true. But that's when horses were trained up to the Derby properly, and the connections were wanting a Triple Crown race for breeding purposes. Now we have just seen a Derby with multiple horses with two and three starts (and getting bet), with the winner loving the plastic to dirt angle.

Zico lists 5 Peakness winners in the last 10 years that didn't fare well in the Derby (war of will getting interfered with though), but now proclaims that the second place finisher with a sub-par Beyer in a sub-par field is a lock. Well, it's hard to argue that ON PAPER, Epicenter is the most accomplished mule in the race. But of course they don't run the races on paper.

Epicenter should win, but based on racing's trends over the last 40 years, I would hardly be shocked if he bounced and ran 6th. The Derby-Preakness angle works for fit and CLASSY horses. I'm just not a believer (yet) that Epicenter is that good.

I've been wrong before.

Epicenter may not be the next coming of Secretariat but you have to analyze the competition. There are no stand out horses he is up against. Early Voting blew a huge lead against a horse that isn't as good as Epicenter. Secret Oath ran a hard race in the Oaks, drifting in badly while being whipped left handed. There is your bounce. Ask yourself this, if Epicenter was in the Oaks and she wasn't, do you think he would have been in an all out drive? NO! It would have been a walk in the park. She is the one most likely to throw in a clunker. She isn't that good, the Arkansas Derby proved that when she lost ground to a sub par horse. Betting a horse with only three starts and no stakes competition is almost always a bad bet. Creative Minister will be the wise guy horse and an underlay. Horses generally decline in their speed figures when stepping way up in class.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by zico20

Epicenter may not be the next coming of Secretariat but you have to analyze the competition. There are no stand out horses he is up against. Early Voting blew a huge lead against a horse that isn't as good as Epicenter. Secret Oath ran a hard race in the Oaks, drifting in badly while being whipped left handed. There is your bounce. Ask yourself this, if Epicenter was in the Oaks and she wasn't, do you think he would have been in an all out drive? NO! It would have been a walk in the park. She is the one most likely to throw in a clunker. She isn't that good, the Arkansas Derby proved that when she lost ground to a sub par horse. Betting a horse with only three starts and no stakes competition is almost always a bad bet. Creative Minister will be the wise guy horse and an underlay. Horses generally decline in their speed figures when stepping way up in class.

The competition this year is suspect, that's for sure. I liked Messier in the Derby, mostly on his speed figures regardless of the small California fields he faced. That didn't work out so well.

Epicenter hasn't done much wrong, but he has been run down in two of his last four races. IF, and it's a big IF, he represented the best of the 3YO crop like past generations, he should have won the Derby with something left. The blanket finish in the Derby is a tell that the field was poor - the low Beyers are another tell. Epicenter was all out at the finish, and if he's a lower class horse like I believe he is and at the peak of his career, he may regress.

Had Epicenter run the same figure in the Oaks, then yes he wins with ease. He probably would have appreciated the shorter distance as well. Even if he bounces a few points in the Preakness, he could still win. But I see his pattern as topping, and Secret Oath perhaps setting up for a move forward. I don't get the impression that Epicenter's TF figures will improve for a fourth race in a row, but of course speed figures are only part of the equation. I guess we'll find out in about 30 hours. This year the tote board and post parade will be how I play the race, and neither Epicenter or Secret Oath will offer much value. Nor do the other two logical contenders, Early Voting and Simplification. A slight move forward, and Early Voting wires the field at 5-2?

(Ooops)

Just checked the early betting in the BES-Preakness $2 doubles. The chalk 10 with the four logical contenders pays:

$15 Epicenter
$37 Secret Oath
$46 Early Voting
$69 Simplification
$109 Creative Minister

The others are all much higher. You may be right, maybe the 2 dog is the "wise guy" horse. For those that bet him, let's hope he runs better than the wise guy horse(s) in the Derby.

Good luck!