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Old 05-13-2022, 12:32 AM   #31
dilanesp
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Interjecting truth is bad now?

The only reason he wasn't caught extremely wide was that the wicked pace spread the field out. He rode the horse well, but circumstance made that much easier.

The snark, or pettiness, in this thread is the headline. Insulting Javy to try to be clever might be more worthy of your derision.
Again, are you really this humorless in person? Literally nobody thinks that thread title is an insult and everyone understands it as irony.
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Old 05-13-2022, 08:24 AM   #32
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OK. I'll buy that part of it. A lot of riders from wherever don't win a Derby. But I don't think there's much to be gained from speaking power to truth. I'm pretty sure Javier doesn't need you to stand up for him. It was a moment a lot of people are still enjoying. Don't piss on it.
This is insane. What am I pissing on?

I didn't realize this at first, but obviously you are speaking for yourself.
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Old 05-13-2022, 08:50 AM   #33
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Rich Strike wasn't going to be 40-1 if he had run in the Preakness. He should have been.

It's fine if you disagree.

Opinions and some randomness/chaos are part of what makes the game magical.

Happy Jack will finish ahead of Simplification in the Preakness, but Simplification will be much lower odds.

Sonny Leon isn't as great a rider career, or now, as Javier Castellano, but it's fine if anyone feels that way with their head or heart.

On Rich Stike mount in this year's Derby? I don't think Javier Castellano would have won. Maybe I'm wrong.

I do think Javy would win or compete for the Ohio jockey titles right now, and be a deity on the Ohio circuits in his prime.

I have a hard time evaluating jockeys.

Within our favorite tracks, Intra-circuit is relatively easy for fans and players.
'ABC'? = 'pretty good' leaders of the colony
'XYZ'? = 'bad' I blame these guys when I lose, and sometimes it's accurate.

'LMNOP'?? = 'mid-tier' guys within a circuit??
That's not as easy. I am already very biased about most of these guys. A lot of that is short-sighted on my part. Even if I could get past that, how can I weigh the mounts/stock they get, or their specialized situational skills?

I'm not able to do a great job comparing intra-circuit jockeys, especially the mid-tier guys within the circuit.

Comparing jockeys outside of their own circuit is even more difficult.
I'm not sure that I'm even able to do a 'good' job of comparing inter-circuit jockeys, between different jockey colonies at different circuits.

tip the hat to Sonny Leon. He's this year's Derby Champ.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 05-13-2022 at 08:55 AM.
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Old 05-13-2022, 09:06 AM   #34
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This is insane. What am I pissing on?

I didn't realize this at first, but obviously you are speaking for yourself.
You said or implied that "the thread title" was some sort of insult at Castellano. Another poster even said you were coming to the defense of Javy.

If you don't think that, and get the irony, that's great.
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Old 05-13-2022, 11:13 AM   #35
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JJ would win Ohio riding titles by many races. No agent would be insane enough to relegate him to Ohio when there's money to be made at higher purses.
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Old 05-13-2022, 11:28 AM   #36
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Was it likely a jock consigned for so long to 3rd tier mediocrity would develop world-class skills? Of course not.

But lots of riders reach full maturation at a career point well beyond that of other athletes. And I am not basing my lofty opinion of the 32-year-old Leon on just the derby. Please.

I well understood when I so marveled at his talents that plenty of observers, some knowledgeable, would understandably take exception. I get it. And so be it.

They are not naive to the ways of racing-and neither am I.

Last edited by mountainman; 05-13-2022 at 11:33 AM.
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Old 05-13-2022, 11:35 AM   #37
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No agent would be insane enough to relegate him to Ohio when there's money to be made at higher purses.
Unless said agent lacked higher connections and stood to lose his meal-ticket upon migrating to the bigs.
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Old 05-13-2022, 02:45 PM   #38
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Unless said agent lacked higher connections and stood to lose his meal-ticket upon migrating to the bigs.
Also, in many careers, there is subtle age discrimination against people who didn't rise up quickly. The assumption is there must be something wrong with a journalist, for instance, who worked at a small local paper for 20 years and never moved up to a more important outlet.

So it might be with jockeys. You can make the move at 19, but at 32, people stereotype you if you are still at the C list track.
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Old 05-13-2022, 04:56 PM   #39
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Unless said agent lacked higher connections and stood to lose his meal-ticket upon migrating to the bigs.
You are pivoting. Before, your claim was that Leon is not the same rider he was during his formative rider years. And now it's that forces beyond his control might keep him down despite that his talents have been well documented.

Are we to believe that connections in this country are so dull that they would ignore a diamond in the rough? With money at stake? That this one agent can hold everyone else at bay? I get that Leon is a bully at an Ohio track. And every 20 years a grade one race breaks in his favor. Why not? He's a highly trained rider. He ran a superb race showing the patience an experienced rider should. Probably any third tier rider in NYRA could bully Ohio racing. These guys did not appear poof in NYRA racing. They paid dues. Every one of these riders and Leon have had their rides surgically dissected time and again by connections to evaluate their potential to add to profits. But this one derby ride proves they've all been mistaken.

It was a great race and probably the signature race of his entire career and that you are his number one fan. He's a great Ohio jockey. We're happy for him. We're happy that you are happy for him. He isn't JJ.
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Old 05-13-2022, 09:27 PM   #40
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. No agent would be insane enough to relegate him to Ohio when there's money to be made at higher purses.
No. I simply responded specifically to your statement blanketing all agents. And that particular post was not even an endorsement of Leon. Nor did I claim the agent would be successful at controlling Leon's tack.

I have known hundreds of jocks and dealt with hundreds of agents . Furthermore, I could regale you with a few anecdotes about small track agents trying desperately to hold extremely talented jocks in place. One, in fact, put a knife to his rider's throat. I would add, though, that a rider can always call his own shots. The agent works for him.

If , however, Leon did decide to test deeper waters, his agent would never take a low road. I know him well and can attest to his character.

I heard Leon was considering Florida, but will probably opt instead merely to ride more in Ky.

I get your point about talent finding its level, but there are exceptions, and I think Leon constitutes just such an instance.

Whatever the case, tx for the response.

Last edited by mountainman; 05-13-2022 at 09:36 PM.
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Old 05-14-2022, 08:06 AM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bustin Stones View Post
Are we to believe that connections in this country are so dull that they would ignore a diamond in the rough? With money at stake? That this one agent can hold everyone else at bay? I get that Leon is a bully at an Ohio track. And every 20 years a grade one race breaks in his favor. Why not? He's a highly trained rider. He ran a superb race showing the patience an experienced rider should.
...

It was a great race and probably the signature race of his entire career and that you are his number one fan. He's a great Ohio jockey. We're happy for him. We're happy that you are happy for him. He isn't JJ.
the diamond in the rough stuff is generally non-existent, just as markets are generally efficient

but market inefficiencies do occur. It's not all randomness of and luck across perfectly priced complete information; - there are overlays and underlays once in while.

Additionally, people matter. Interrelatedness and connectivity matter. Scouts and agents and connections work a market-position with forces beyond even the simplicity of a factor such as rider merit.

I don't know much about Sonny Leon specifically.

The first barrier to jockeydom is being small enough, then being as close to the ideal size as possible. Then comes health and skill.

Leon seems at a glance to have these (I don't know if he actually has some height/weight struggle).

Leon has the general skill, and the specialized skill to be able do certain things like break, close, drive etc...

Leon is not apparently unusually non-athletic or weak or slow. He seems to be intelligent enough, perhaps even being above average or more in things like 'spatial awareness'.

Unless I'm missing something, a guy like Leon could generally ride at an 'A' Circuit, providing he could sustain and thrive mentally even if it turns out that he would be a 'C' jock on such a circuit with a book of mostly non-contenders...

If it turned out that he were actually a leader/outlier in some combination of athleticism and intelligence, he could be an a 'B'/'A' rider anywhere in the world.

I have no idea if Sonny Leon specifically could be more than a 'C' rider on an 'A' circuit, or whether mental strength and circumstance would support that style.

Mark has stated that he was a good jockey well before the Kentucky Derby shocker. That's good enough for me. I'm not a scout, agent or historian. I'd like to find one decent play on a Saturday. Enough for me. I respect all of your opinions. On to Baltimore
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Old 05-14-2022, 12:07 PM   #42
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There has been some discussion in some other places I frequent about that Trakus number being grossly inaccurate. He was 2 wide on the entire first turn and moved between 4, 3, and 2 paths on the second turn. Obviously not the rail, but he never got parked out the way several other horses did.

Out in Southern California, we have a lot of experience with Trakus screwing things up- their timing system is a joke. The folks in Florida I know say the same thing. Watching replays >>> looking at Trakus numbers, if ground loss is a thing you care about.
I love Trakus, but they sometimes get ground loss wrong.

Thorograph has him as 3w and 3w, but they round up.

I had him between 2-3 wide 1st turn and similar to you 2nd turn.

IMO the main thing with ground loss is energy use and position. IMO his early ground loss wasnít particularly significant. He was WAY back where he normally settles and was not being used. Some of the others were also off the insane pace but wider and closer to it. They were being used to keep position. Others saved more ground but were closer to the pace.

On the 2nd turn when he was doing his running he lost some ground but he came inside other horses that wider and/or swinging way out.

IMO was a great ride and as good a ground trip as you are going to get breaking from post 21 and coming from that far behind with that pace. IMO you sure didnít want to be 4-5 wide first turn anywhere close or even mid pack chasing that insanity.
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