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04-28-2022, 01:20 AM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael
Doesn't timeformus not factor in foreign invaders for their pace projections?
If Early Voting was really contemplating the derby... would Jose have already committed to the mount on Simplification? Personally, I don't think so.. which would mean Pioneer of Medina draws in. That said, the 1:11.81 in Dubai was timed without a run up. Summer is Tomorrow I believe will likely set the pace and be a pebble in Messier's
shoe. (Messier might be a quitter) I actually don't think SIT is a threat, but I do view pace holistically. Also, The other Japanese horse blew by SIT in the stretch on the wrong lead.  |
I suppose there's a first time for everything, but historically, the speed horses/pressers from Dubai almost never make a dent on the Derby pace.
Regal Ransom pressed the pace in Mine That Bird's sloppy Derby win. Express Tour couldn't get close enough. Daddy Long Legs got smoked trying to show speed. Thunder Snow forgot how to run. Mendelssohn got clobbered early coming out of a compact field in Dubai. Master of Hounds, Mubtaahij, and Lines of Battle all opted to come off the pace. China Visit had none of the tactical speed he showed in Dubai.
Summer is Tomorrow is basically coming out of sprints so I guess he might break from the gate well enough to make contact with the first flight.
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04-28-2022, 09:09 AM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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04-28-2022, 09:23 AM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,604
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I'm likely to go in another direction. Knowing that the horse has some soundness issues makes the very light work schedule coming into the Derby a bit more of a red or at least yellow flag. He's obviously extremely talented, but it seems like a lot to ask unless the price is very attractive.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 04-28-2022 at 09:24 AM.
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04-28-2022, 10:12 AM
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#64
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm likely to go in another direction. Knowing that the horse has some soundness issues makes the very light work schedule coming into the Derby a bit more of a red or at least yellow flag. He's obviously extremely talented, but it seems like a lot to ask unless the price is very attractive.
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Im tossing him. Too good of a year to bet on long shots to fill the tri with Zandon.
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04-28-2022, 01:46 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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04-29-2022, 12:23 AM
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#66
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Was it noted anywhere why Taiba (if that's the correct video) was wearing blinkers for that work?
Horse is unbeaten by open lengths in 2 starts; would the stewards even allow the equipment change?
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04-29-2022, 01:03 AM
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#67
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,827
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He's worn them in some of his earlier works, no idea why they'd put them back on for this one though. Seems odd to do that with the "new" trainer.
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04-29-2022, 06:32 AM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,079
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
He's worn them in some of his earlier works, no idea why they'd put them back on for this one though. Seems odd to do that with the "new" trainer.
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I don't want to include the horse either, but Justify was held together by duct tape and bailing wire and won a Triple Crown.
A fast Baffert horse has to be included. Authentic and Medina Spirit have taught me so.
1 year after the fact DQs don't matter to my wager.
Last edited by PalaceOfFortLarned; 04-29-2022 at 06:34 AM.
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04-29-2022, 10:57 AM
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#69
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned
I don't want to include the horse either, but Justify was held together by duct tape and bailing wire and won a Triple Crown.
A fast Baffert horse has to be included. Authentic and Medina Spirit have taught me so.
1 year after the fact DQs don't matter to my wager.
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Yeah, you can't discount the juice.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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04-29-2022, 05:09 PM
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#70
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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my perspective on Taiba's work + a dark horse
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
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Taiba's work went perfectly.
Tawny Port is a quality horse, I want to see his work Saturday.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-29-2022, 05:26 PM
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#71
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
He's worn them in some of his earlier works, no idea why they'd put them back on for this one though. Seems odd to do that with the "new" trainer.
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Who knows..
I guess if he's versatile with both options, maybe the blinkers are a bit of insurance on 'focus' in such an event w/ 19 rivals.
Mike will probably get right up near the pace anyway.
He adjusted OK in the Santa Anita Derby after breaking on the pace, and then letting Messier go do the heavy lifting. No idea if the blinkers will affect that.
+ in the work they used a 'sparring partner', so they hope he can track a little bit if the pace is hot.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-01-2022, 09:22 AM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,079
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
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Tawny Port is growing on me. Hasn't ever ran a bad race and is getting better each time out. That Risen Star race just keeps coming up as the key race it seems. He got a crap trip and was stuck on the rail that day and ran on for 5th in a loaded field. Pappacap and Slow Down Andy were also in that field. Epicenter flat ran a monster that day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ay2I...rseRacingPicks
Last edited by PalaceOfFortLarned; 05-01-2022 at 09:25 AM.
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