Taiba versus Zandon versus White Abarrio versus Epicenter

[NellyGCM]

Anecdotally, both times that Messier has been beaten at route of ground, it has been by a stretching-out sprinter (first Slow Down Andy, and then Taiba). But I don't read anything into it other than Messier seems to need that first race in order to run his best, 2nd time out at a route.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

Epicenter is so much better bred for the Derby distance than Zandon and White Abarrio that it isn't funny - and with the new dimension that Epicenter showed in the Louisiana Derby, I'm looking for him to be laying like 8th to 10th after the first half mile, taking the lead on the far turn, and then holding off the hard-core closers, which could include Crown Pride and Summer is Tomorrow, for the win.

Hard-core closers? Summer is tomorrow set the pace in the UAE derby and ran a 1:11 and change to the half. (Crown Pride was sitting 3rd by 2)

I think Early voting skips the derby and Summer is tomorrow is going to set the pace in Kentucky. That's just a Colonel Mustard with the candle stick guess though.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Michael

Hard-core closers? Summer is tomorrow set the pace in the UAE derby and ran a 1:11 and change to the half. (Crown Pride was sitting 3rd by 2)

I think Early voting skips the derby and Summer is tomorrow is going to set the pace in Kentucky. That's just a Colonel Mustard with the candle stick guess though.

Based on CJ's chart, of the speed/pressers that are left, either Messier or Early Voting are the most likely to be the frontrunner.

Early Voting is on the fence, which is not a good sign (in terms of participating).

Messier has a somewhat similar profile to Medina Spirit, who John Velasquez perhaps unexpectedly sent directly to the lead in the Kentucky Derby last year to great effect (at least for the 12 days or so before his blood test came back).

[Robert Fischer]

I like Summer Tomorrow. I think he could be 4th or 5th or 6th.

[SkunkApe]

I’m think that Summer Is Tomorrow is more like that France Underpants that that ran in the Preakness and Belmont last year, running fast early and then gassing.

I could be wrong, of course.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I like Summer Tomorrow. I think he could be 4th or 5th or 6th.

I was thinking the same about Skippylongstocking.

[SkunkApe]

I wish Skippy was in. Would giver serious consideration as an under.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I like Summer Tomorrow. I think he could be 4th or 5th or 6th.

If the wager was available, I'd bet SIT to finish dead ass last.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

I’m think that Summer Is Tomorrow is more like that France Underpants that that ran in the Preakness and Belmont last year, running fast early and then gassing.

I could be wrong, of course.

France Underpants.

You're killing me.

France Go de Ina. And you are right, had no business running in either race. You made my day. I have tears in my eyes.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

I’m think that Summer Is Tomorrow is more like that France Underpants that that ran in the Preakness and Belmont last year, running fast early and then gassing.

I could be wrong, of course.

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

If the wager was available, I'd bet SIT to finish dead ass last.

Could be dead last. Even if he's a way more legit than most think, pace setters can run near last with a bad break or a pace meltdown.

Huge distance and class jump last race for Summer Is Tomorrow entering the UAE Derby. In the previous race a 6f $60k (light for well-meant Dubai horses) he broke to the lead, controlled the pace like a route pace-setter and ran a fast race. In the UAE Derby he ran a relatively big race. Field was strung out. 9.5 furlong race, but the 6f call was not much slower than the final time of the 6f Golden Shaheen run the next race on the card. He held together well but he needed that race as the Japanese Invader Crown Pride was able to eventually grind past on the wrong lead to win.

Not some brilliant prep race, but also better than our lack of coverage and figure diligence (both due to the UAE Derby generally being a non-factor, and to politics). - Crown Pride is not a bad horse either. The footwork is an issue, but he's a willing type. Japan will eventually have some contenders, perhaps Preakness, Belmont. But, this post is about Summer Is Tomorrow, who will be a bigger price.

'SIT' is in good hands, trainer Bhupat Seemar is a former Baffert assistant who was here for War Emblam and other Derbys. He is the leading trainer at the recent Dubai meets. This horse has shipped to several locations overseas at various times.

Clean break, and it's reasonable that he could finish fourth fifth or 6th.

Hard Spun/Bodiemeister was able to kind of show us the 'dream scenario' where a pace horse like SIT could bring the lead all the way until tackled by Zandon,... but we've got some good horses in this field, and you think some of them start to tackle entering the stretch, which brings a realistic guess closer to 4th-6th for my perspective.

Only reason I EVEN post any of this 'SIT' related stuff, is because I notice how completely dismissed he is by the experts.

So, take it with a grain of salt. On guy on a message board, and it's just my perspective that happens to run contrarian of the consensus

[classhandicapper]

I just looked the Thorograph figures for the Derby horses. I was pretty surprised at how close a LOT of the horses are. They are also a bit different from the Beyers. On those figures it looks like a super wide open race.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I just looked the Thorograph figures for the Derby horses. I was pretty surprised at how close a LOT of the horses are. They are also a bit different from the Beyers. On those figures it looks like a super wide open race.

hey Classhandicapper Care to share a horse or two, who maybe looks better on TG than expected?

[Vinnie]

I heard that Taiba ran a negative 1/2 Thorograph number in his last race. That is what Jon White had mentioned in an article that I recently read. I must admit I am not too familiar with T-Graph figures, however, I know enough to understand that achieving such a number in a race is outstanding! I am hopeful that because of his being so lightly raced (with only 2 previous starts) that he will be a little bit more overlooked in the wagering than he ordinarily would be. At least that is what I am hoping for anyhow. Can you imagine if he goes off at odds near maybe 6, 7, or 8 to 1 like Super Saver did in 2010. WOW!! If he runs like he is capable of that could well be the case. If such a thing comes to pass good luck on getting anything decent on him in terms of decent odds for a very long time.

Of course, much of the vibe I am currently feeling is largely contingent upon how he looks, reacts, and in general acclimates to the somewhat chaotic environment of a Churchill Downs on that first Saturday in May. Getting pumped for it already!!

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

hey Classhandicapper Care to share a horse or two, who maybe looks better on TG than expected?

I don't think I should do that because it's a product Thorograph is selling now, but when you make the adjustments for ground loss, more horses are in the 1-2 range on that scale that I would have guessed. Taiba does have the clear top fig as suggested above if you think he's going to duplicate it.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Based on CJ's chart, of the speed/pressers that are left, either Messier or Early Voting are the most likely to be the frontrunner.

Early Voting is on the fence, which is not a good sign (in terms of participating).

Messier has a somewhat similar profile to Medina Spirit, who John Velasquez perhaps unexpectedly sent directly to the lead in the Kentucky Derby last year to great effect (at least for the 12 days or so before his blood test came back).

Doesn't timeformus not factor in foreign invaders for their pace projections?

If Early Voting was really contemplating the derby... would Jose have already committed to the mount on Simplification? Personally, I don't think so.. which would mean Pioneer of Medina draws in. That said, the 1:11.81 in Dubai was timed without a run up. Summer is Tomorrow I believe will likely set the pace and be a pebble in Messier's
shoe. (Messier might be a quitter) I actually don't think SIT is a threat, but I do view pace holistically. Also, The other Japanese horse blew by SIT in the stretch on the wrong lead.