Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-18-2022, 09:22 AM   #31
minethatbird08
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 332
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I've been a little suspect of the leading CA 3yos. There are two ways to look at Taiba. Either he's pretty special to win the SA Derby in only his second start stretching out from 6F or 9F or maybe Messier and the other CA 3yos are not all that good.
I’m leaning in that direction. Slow Down Andy was the best of the bunch that shipped. His performance in the Risen Star, the key prep, was okay. Got hung wide on the first turn and didn’t show much coming for home behind Tawny Port. I was less impressed with his Sunland derby. I’m generally a numbers guy but the California contingent just seems off to me. Plus you have a trainer change, I’ll be curious to see the works.
minethatbird08 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2022, 10:20 AM   #32
minethatbird08
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 332
Zandon- Real deal but tough trip looms. His running style doesn’t fit recent winners but he has done well with tough trips in last two. Chad Brown even mentioned he would like to see him use a little more of his natural speed to get better position in the Derby.

White Abarrio- Like this guy, tactical and runs mature, but don’t like numbers coming out of last race. Outside chance to hit board if he sits back a little further and makes one run, IMO.

Taiba- Could be great. A lot on his plate though with new trainer, shipping for first time, and a big field. How he works will probably be key. Wouldn’t be surprised if he wins or finishes off the board.

Epicenter- Most logical play at this point given running style and already has a win at 9.5f. Also won they Key prep in Risen Star and added some tactical running to the repertoire. Other than a Palace Malice led pace meltdown or “Derby trouble” hard to see him not hit the board.

Mo Donegal- See Zandon but with better trips. With right set up will be dangerous.

Tiz the Bomb- Can he handle the dirt? He did once and completely failed once. Wild Card

Early Voting- Right running style and enough talent. Chad seems 50/50 on running him but if he does total must use, I’m thinking you get 20-1.

Crown Pride- My too early Belmont horse. He is a UAE derby entry (huge negative) but Japan is hot, he will be at CD for like a month by race time, and while a Japan bred he is American classics underneath the hood (Sunday Silence and Mr prospector both sides and throw in some Seattle Slew for good measure).
minethatbird08 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2022, 12:25 PM   #33
Fightingirish51195
Registered User
 
Fightingirish51195's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,411
How do we feel about early voting? Has the pedigree. Speed. Final fractions were good in the WM.

But got ran down by mo dongegal…
__________________
Without the freedom to offend you do not have the freedom of speech
Fightingirish51195 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2022, 08:48 PM   #34
minethatbird08
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 332
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195 View Post
How do we feel about early voting? Has the pedigree. Speed. Final fractions were good in the WM.

But got ran down by mo dongegal…
Does Mo Donegal get the same trip in the Derby that he did in the Wood?
minethatbird08 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 12:29 PM   #35
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by minethatbird08 View Post
Does Mo Donegal get the same trip in the Derby that he did in the Wood?
want to see Fightingirish51195's opinion as well.

Mo Donegal looks to me like a 'closer'. I don't see him getting as favorable a trip in the Derby as his clear inside Wood run, unless the pace really melts down, or Irad(whoever gets the mount) pulls off their best Calvin Borel impersonation.

He's a heck of a horse. Met Zandon and Early Voting and was right there as a legit co-fav in both matchups. His Gulfstream Holybull race worked out with a track/flow against his style and he was still at least 2nd-best that day.

Both Mo Donegal and Zandon had closing trips in their final prep, but I view Zandon as 'mid-pack/Stalker', with Mo Donegal as a 'Closer'. I expect that to be what we see in the Derby.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 12:36 PM   #36
Fightingirish51195
Registered User
 
Fightingirish51195's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,411
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
want to see Fightingirish51195's opinion as well.

Mo Donegal looks to me like a 'closer'. I don't see him getting as favorable a trip in the Derby as his clear inside Wood run, unless the pace really melts down, or Irad(whoever gets the mount) pulls off their best Calvin Borel impersonation.

He's a heck of a horse. Met Zandon and Early Voting and was right there as a legit co-fav in both matchups. His Gulfstream Holybull race worked out with a track/flow against his style and he was still at least 2nd-best that day.

Both Mo Donegal and Zandon had closing trips in their final prep, but I view Zandon as 'mid-pack/Stalker', with Mo Donegal as a 'Closer'. I expect that to be what we see in the Derby.
Pretty much where I’m at. Im concerned about mo donegals and zandons potential trips
__________________
Without the freedom to offend you do not have the freedom of speech
Fightingirish51195 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 01:57 PM   #37
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195 View Post
Pretty much where I’m at. Im concerned about mo donegals and zandons potential trips
Prat knows how to navigate a horse. He put Country House closer up and blew up the tote board. Mo, is the type that could have trip problems.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 05:45 PM   #38
Bustin Stones
Registered User
 
Bustin Stones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 774
You could make a serious case for half the horses entered, but I'm going to go with Taiba off of his win the the SA Derby. The way he kept coming in the stretch, there's something special about him. He has just enough early speed, closing punch and persistence.
Bustin Stones is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 05:54 PM   #39
luisbe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 378
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bustin Stones View Post
You could make a serious case for half the horses entered, but I'm going to go with Taiba off of his win the the SA Derby. The way he kept coming in the stretch, there's something special about him. He has just enough early speed, closing punch and persistence.
I agree. I saw a repetition of California Chrome vs Arrogate in the Classic, being Taiba Arrogate.
luisbe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 06:44 PM   #40
Someday Silent
Registered User
 
Someday Silent's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: South of heaven
Posts: 384
Of course, if Taiba wins, it'll destroy the whole point of having a "Triple Crown Trail".

I respect Epicenter, but I actually see him winning the Preakness after a 4th place Derby finish.

Sentimentally, I want Crown Pride to win because he's a grandson of the horse in my avatar.

I'm neutral on Zandon and Mo Donegal. They'll be useful horses after the TC is done.

Looks like this is the year for me to use a Ouija Board to pick Derby horses....
Someday Silent is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 06:44 PM   #41
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
Prat knows how to navigate a horse. He put Country House closer up and blew up the tote board. Mo, is the type that could have trip problems.
I agree on Prat.

Zandon also has had enough trouble and traffic at the break, that this horse's assigned running style could easily be mislabeled a bit. The only untroubled route race he's had was in the Remson and he sat 3rd and then 2nd, albeit in a slow pace.

horse, jockey, and trainer all seem to have the ability to value a good position.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 08:05 PM   #42
NellyGCM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 4
I'm reluctantly a Taiba backer

I will put 65% of my capital on wagers including Taiba as the winner. I think the Derby is going the direction of fewer preps and more training up. I also think that the debut race speaks much about what he can do if it is necessary in the big race. I even expect his jockey to take him to the early lead in the Derby and to run a 46 flat half, and to air the field to take the

It sounds like I have simply followed the BSFs or the TFs, but to me, the next most likely winner is Messier, followed by Epicenter.

Messier posted his big jump in speed figures two races back. Combined with his nice comeback run last out, and being taken care of by JV after being passed by Taiba, he is set to run well. BB involvement or not, he is consistently one of the best producers of late.

Epicenter has raced more than I thought was useful but that's really his only question mark in my view. He has learned to employ different styles, is capable of being close to a reasonably fast pace, and overall is relatively fast enough on figures. His class lines project the best of any Derby runner and don't have the question marks of, say, being beaten by Slow Down Andy (like Messier). But he is so damn obvious (read: less value) and his flashy moments are not that flashy. I also have an irrational thing against his sire, Not This Time, for his loss to Classic Empire in the Breeders Cup Juvenile which cost me an uncomfortably large amount of money.
NellyGCM is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 11:34 PM   #43
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by NellyGCM View Post
Messier posted his big jump in speed figures two races back. Combined with his nice comeback run last out, and being taken care of by JV after being passed by Taiba, he is set to run well. BB involvement or not, he is consistently one of the best producers of late.
Messier appeared to have his hind end "slip" from under him coming out of the gate in Santa Anita Derby and John Velasquez had some sort of issue with his right stirrup as a result. You see him try to send the horse immediately from the gate then drop his right rein to adjust the stirrup, allowing Messier to come off the bit briefly before sending him straight in between Forbidden Kingdom and Taiba going into the first turn.

Perhaps he would have broken the race wide open sooner had he pressed Forbidden Kingdom from the outset rather than getting pounced on by Taiba right after taking the lead. He may also have been a bit short having missed a key prep the month before.

That said, he's wilted twice now when part of strong contested pace.
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-20-2022, 09:29 AM   #44
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Messier appeared to have his hind end "slip" from under him coming out of the gate in Santa Anita Derby and John Velasquez had some sort of issue with his right stirrup as a result. You see him try to send the horse immediately from the gate then drop his right rein to adjust the stirrup, allowing Messier to come off the bit briefly before sending him straight in between Forbidden Kingdom and Taiba going into the first turn.

Perhaps he would have broken the race wide open sooner had he pressed Forbidden Kingdom from the outset rather than getting pounced on by Taiba right after taking the lead. He may also have been a bit short having missed a key prep the month before.

That said, he's wilted twice now when part of strong contested pace.
Good info. I do see Johnny V adjusting the stirrup prior to the first turn.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-20-2022, 02:14 PM   #45
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
That said, he's wilted twice now when part of strong contested pace.
I could see this guy pull a Dortmund and hang on for a piece, especially if the closers fail to close. Wilted probably isn't a completely fair word choice here is he still came home with a final 3/8th fraction of approximately 37.8, and didn't lose more than two lengths to eventual winner. He would potentially be one of the chalks if not for the potentially freakish Taiba who would still qualify for a Nw2 other than maiden. I do think he can get a decent trip if he can get a draw somewhat inside. Probably one I use underneath in some gimmicks. JV is about as good as you get for a Derby mount.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:23 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.