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04-18-2022, 09:22 AM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 332
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I've been a little suspect of the leading CA 3yos. There are two ways to look at Taiba. Either he's pretty special to win the SA Derby in only his second start stretching out from 6F or 9F or maybe Messier and the other CA 3yos are not all that good.
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I’m leaning in that direction. Slow Down Andy was the best of the bunch that shipped. His performance in the Risen Star, the key prep, was okay. Got hung wide on the first turn and didn’t show much coming for home behind Tawny Port. I was less impressed with his Sunland derby. I’m generally a numbers guy but the California contingent just seems off to me. Plus you have a trainer change, I’ll be curious to see the works.
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04-18-2022, 10:20 AM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 332
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Zandon- Real deal but tough trip looms. His running style doesn’t fit recent winners but he has done well with tough trips in last two. Chad Brown even mentioned he would like to see him use a little more of his natural speed to get better position in the Derby.
White Abarrio- Like this guy, tactical and runs mature, but don’t like numbers coming out of last race. Outside chance to hit board if he sits back a little further and makes one run, IMO.
Taiba- Could be great. A lot on his plate though with new trainer, shipping for first time, and a big field. How he works will probably be key. Wouldn’t be surprised if he wins or finishes off the board.
Epicenter- Most logical play at this point given running style and already has a win at 9.5f. Also won they Key prep in Risen Star and added some tactical running to the repertoire. Other than a Palace Malice led pace meltdown or “Derby trouble” hard to see him not hit the board.
Mo Donegal- See Zandon but with better trips. With right set up will be dangerous.
Tiz the Bomb- Can he handle the dirt? He did once and completely failed once. Wild Card
Early Voting- Right running style and enough talent. Chad seems 50/50 on running him but if he does total must use, I’m thinking you get 20-1.
Crown Pride- My too early Belmont horse. He is a UAE derby entry (huge negative) but Japan is hot, he will be at CD for like a month by race time, and while a Japan bred he is American classics underneath the hood (Sunday Silence and Mr prospector both sides and throw in some Seattle Slew for good measure).
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04-18-2022, 12:25 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,411
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How do we feel about early voting? Has the pedigree. Speed. Final fractions were good in the WM.
But got ran down by mo dongegal…
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04-18-2022, 08:48 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 332
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195
How do we feel about early voting? Has the pedigree. Speed. Final fractions were good in the WM.
But got ran down by mo dongegal…
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Does Mo Donegal get the same trip in the Derby that he did in the Wood?
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04-19-2022, 12:29 PM
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#35
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minethatbird08
Does Mo Donegal get the same trip in the Derby that he did in the Wood?
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want to see Fightingirish51195's opinion as well.
Mo Donegal looks to me like a 'closer'. I don't see him getting as favorable a trip in the Derby as his clear inside Wood run, unless the pace really melts down, or Irad(whoever gets the mount) pulls off their best Calvin Borel impersonation.
He's a heck of a horse. Met Zandon and Early Voting and was right there as a legit co-fav in both matchups. His Gulfstream Holybull race worked out with a track/flow against his style and he was still at least 2nd-best that day.
Both Mo Donegal and Zandon had closing trips in their final prep, but I view Zandon as 'mid-pack/Stalker', with Mo Donegal as a 'Closer'. I expect that to be what we see in the Derby.
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04-19-2022, 12:36 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
want to see Fightingirish51195's opinion as well.
Mo Donegal looks to me like a 'closer'. I don't see him getting as favorable a trip in the Derby as his clear inside Wood run, unless the pace really melts down, or Irad(whoever gets the mount) pulls off their best Calvin Borel impersonation.
He's a heck of a horse. Met Zandon and Early Voting and was right there as a legit co-fav in both matchups. His Gulfstream Holybull race worked out with a track/flow against his style and he was still at least 2nd-best that day.
Both Mo Donegal and Zandon had closing trips in their final prep, but I view Zandon as 'mid-pack/Stalker', with Mo Donegal as a 'Closer'. I expect that to be what we see in the Derby.
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Pretty much where I’m at. Im concerned about mo donegals and zandons potential trips
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04-19-2022, 01:57 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195
Pretty much where I’m at. Im concerned about mo donegals and zandons potential trips
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Prat knows how to navigate a horse. He put Country House closer up and blew up the tote board. Mo, is the type that could have trip problems.
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04-19-2022, 05:45 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 774
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You could make a serious case for half the horses entered, but I'm going to go with Taiba off of his win the the SA Derby. The way he kept coming in the stretch, there's something special about him. He has just enough early speed, closing punch and persistence.
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04-19-2022, 05:54 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 378
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bustin Stones
You could make a serious case for half the horses entered, but I'm going to go with Taiba off of his win the the SA Derby. The way he kept coming in the stretch, there's something special about him. He has just enough early speed, closing punch and persistence.
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I agree. I saw a repetition of California Chrome vs Arrogate in the Classic, being Taiba Arrogate.
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04-19-2022, 06:44 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: South of heaven
Posts: 384
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Of course, if Taiba wins, it'll destroy the whole point of having a "Triple Crown Trail".
I respect Epicenter, but I actually see him winning the Preakness after a 4th place Derby finish.
Sentimentally, I want Crown Pride to win because he's a grandson of the horse in my avatar.
I'm neutral on Zandon and Mo Donegal. They'll be useful horses after the TC is done.
Looks like this is the year for me to use a Ouija Board to pick Derby horses....
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04-19-2022, 06:44 PM
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#41
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Prat knows how to navigate a horse. He put Country House closer up and blew up the tote board. Mo, is the type that could have trip problems.
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I agree on Prat.
Zandon also has had enough trouble and traffic at the break, that this horse's assigned running style could easily be mislabeled a bit. The only untroubled route race he's had was in the Remson and he sat 3rd and then 2nd, albeit in a slow pace.
horse, jockey, and trainer all seem to have the ability to value a good position.
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04-19-2022, 08:05 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 4
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I'm reluctantly a Taiba backer
I will put 65% of my capital on wagers including Taiba as the winner. I think the Derby is going the direction of fewer preps and more training up. I also think that the debut race speaks much about what he can do if it is necessary in the big race. I even expect his jockey to take him to the early lead in the Derby and to run a 46 flat half, and to air the field to take the
It sounds like I have simply followed the BSFs or the TFs, but to me, the next most likely winner is Messier, followed by Epicenter.
Messier posted his big jump in speed figures two races back. Combined with his nice comeback run last out, and being taken care of by JV after being passed by Taiba, he is set to run well. BB involvement or not, he is consistently one of the best producers of late.
Epicenter has raced more than I thought was useful but that's really his only question mark in my view. He has learned to employ different styles, is capable of being close to a reasonably fast pace, and overall is relatively fast enough on figures. His class lines project the best of any Derby runner and don't have the question marks of, say, being beaten by Slow Down Andy (like Messier). But he is so damn obvious (read: less value) and his flashy moments are not that flashy. I also have an irrational thing against his sire, Not This Time, for his loss to Classic Empire in the Breeders Cup Juvenile which cost me an uncomfortably large amount of money.
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04-19-2022, 11:34 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NellyGCM
Messier posted his big jump in speed figures two races back. Combined with his nice comeback run last out, and being taken care of by JV after being passed by Taiba, he is set to run well. BB involvement or not, he is consistently one of the best producers of late.
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Messier appeared to have his hind end "slip" from under him coming out of the gate in Santa Anita Derby and John Velasquez had some sort of issue with his right stirrup as a result. You see him try to send the horse immediately from the gate then drop his right rein to adjust the stirrup, allowing Messier to come off the bit briefly before sending him straight in between Forbidden Kingdom and Taiba going into the first turn.
Perhaps he would have broken the race wide open sooner had he pressed Forbidden Kingdom from the outset rather than getting pounced on by Taiba right after taking the lead. He may also have been a bit short having missed a key prep the month before.
That said, he's wilted twice now when part of strong contested pace.
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04-20-2022, 09:29 AM
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#44
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Messier appeared to have his hind end "slip" from under him coming out of the gate in Santa Anita Derby and John Velasquez had some sort of issue with his right stirrup as a result. You see him try to send the horse immediately from the gate then drop his right rein to adjust the stirrup, allowing Messier to come off the bit briefly before sending him straight in between Forbidden Kingdom and Taiba going into the first turn.
Perhaps he would have broken the race wide open sooner had he pressed Forbidden Kingdom from the outset rather than getting pounced on by Taiba right after taking the lead. He may also have been a bit short having missed a key prep the month before.
That said, he's wilted twice now when part of strong contested pace.
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Good info. I do see Johnny V adjusting the stirrup prior to the first turn.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-20-2022, 02:14 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
That said, he's wilted twice now when part of strong contested pace.
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I could see this guy pull a Dortmund and hang on for a piece, especially if the closers fail to close. Wilted probably isn't a completely fair word choice here is he still came home with a final 3/8th fraction of approximately 37.8, and didn't lose more than two lengths to eventual winner. He would potentially be one of the chalks if not for the potentially freakish Taiba who would still qualify for a Nw2 other than maiden. I do think he can get a decent trip if he can get a draw somewhat inside. Probably one I use underneath in some gimmicks. JV is about as good as you get for a Derby mount.
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