Taiba versus Zandon versus White Abarrio versus Epicenter

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Or it could play out like a Real Quiet-Indian Charlie type scenario.

Or Lil E. Tee-Pine Bluff.

Or Unbridled-Summer Squall.

Or Funny Cide-Empire Maker.

Or Ferdinand-Snow Chief.

Or Monarchos-Congaree.

Or Sea Hero-Prairie Bayou.

Right now I'd guess Messier will be off the board at 10F and Taiba will come up a little short with such little bottom. But don't hold me to it. There are a lot of workouts to go and we have to see the final field and post positions. I have a lot of work and thinking to still do.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Or Rock Your World - Medina Spirit

Is it me or Messier wasn't pushed in the final 8th?

Neither Rock Your World or Medina Spirit won the Kentucky Derby.

Messier wasn't pushed the final 100 yards when it was clear he was beaten, but he was hard ridden into the final sixteenth.

He's not as attractive a candidate to reverse form as the other horses I mentioned.

None of those Derby winners missed a critical prep race. That could be seen as a positive in that he was probably a little short for the SA Derby and might improve at CD. At the same time, whatever it was that kept him out of the earlier prep might not have gone away entirely.

Better horses have been upended by seemingly minor but still nagging issues along the Derby trail. Messier's sire among them.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Neither Rock Your World or Medina Spirit won the Kentucky Derby.

If you bet them you cashed on one.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by cj

If you bet them you cashed on one.

I should have countered with Mandaloun-Hot Rod Charlie.

Rock Your World was one of the most ill-managed horses of last year. Why he was in the Belmont off his disastrous Kentucky Derby is completely inexplicable.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I've been a little suspect of the leading CA 3yos. There are two ways to look at Taiba. Either he's pretty special to win the SA Derby in only his second start stretching out from 6F or 9F or maybe Messier and the other CA 3yos are not all that good.

Messier's Robert Lewis seemed inflated to me. It was a big margin, and visually impressive, and I could be wrong about it.

I thought Messier's Santa Anita Derby is very representative of his current actual form.

Taiba had a better trip, but between Messier's leveling off, and an impressive stretch run from Taiba, the contrast made Messier look like he was distance challenged.

Messier's performance puts him in contention with the crop's top performers.

May also have a reasonable valid comparison of Messier's performance in the Santa Anita Derby to Early Voting's performance in the Wood.

I feel relatively strong at least concerning Messier's solid baseline. As far as Taiba, it seems his Santa Anita Derby was no mirage, but the inexperience can be a liability in the Derby. Two career races could be fine, but there's also the possibility of hiding a fault. 2-for-2 and two homeruns. Santa Anita Derby wasn't necessarily an 'easy' race, but it was a short field at home and the rival didn't fire, leaving him to tackle his uncoupled entry who had done a bit more running mid race. Can he perform at that level in the Derby vs. 19 rivals, and whatever weather/crowds/etc..?

[Andy Asaro]

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[Thomas Roulston]

Epicenter is so much better bred for the Derby distance than Zandon and White Abarrio that it isn't funny - and with the new dimension that Epicenter showed in the Louisiana Derby, I'm looking for him to be laying like 8th to 10th after the first half mile, taking the lead on the far turn, and then holding off the hard-core closers, which could include Crown Pride and Summer is Tomorrow, for the win.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

Epicenter is so much better bred for the Derby distance than Zandon and White Abarrio that it isn't funny - and with the new dimension that Epicenter showed in the Louisiana Derby, I'm looking for him to be laying like 8th to 10th after the first half mile, taking the lead on the far turn, and then holding off the hard-core closers, which could include Crown Pride and Summer is Tomorrow, for the win.

Epicenter is the track record holder for FG 1-3/16 M, so yes, he should be considered.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

Epicenter is so much better bred for the Derby distance than Zandon and White Abarrio that it isn't funny - and with the new dimension that Epicenter showed in the Louisiana Derby, I'm looking for him to be laying like 8th to 10th after the first half mile, taking the lead on the far turn, and then holding off the hard-core closers, which could include Crown Pride and Summer is Tomorrow, for the win.

You lost me when you brought up Crown Pride and Summer is Tomorrow. The UAE Derby never produces a positive result in the Kentucky Derby. Your post was going so well until that.

[Curln22]

Except this guy is not your normal past UAE derby horse.
Japanese have been on fire.

[Bennie]

My concern with Taiba is what happens with post draw and he gets dirt in the face for the first time. How will he react?
My concern with Messier is I'm wondering if anyone heard that it is said he makes some kind of noise when he works out or races, that may have to do with his breathing? Nothing confirmed and no source named.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

Epicenter is so much better bred for the Derby distance than Zandon and White Abarrio that it isn't funny

What's the evidence for this?

All 3 of those horses come from fairly weak female families (a grassy European one in the case of Epicenter) and are each sired by a relatively young sires who were of suspect durability as racehorses.

Not this Time made 4 starts total and was quickly retired at 2 with a soft tissue injury. As far as I can tell, his sire Giant's Causeway got only one horse that won a 10 furlong race of any consequence; that was the ex-Euro Frost Giant who shocked in a weak Suburban at 40-1 and never won again.

Race Day was a late starting 3yo that set a track record at 9f but never attempted 10f in a brief career. However, he was sired by Tapit, the premier stamina influence in North America at the moment. Race Day's 2nd dam was Printing Press, dam of the great Lite Light, who demolished the 1991 Kentucky Oaks field and then crushed champion Meadow Star in the 10 furlong CCA Oaks in stakes record time.

Upstart was a Grade 2-calibur NY-bred but he is by Flatter who sired Travers winner West Coast and the long-lived Flat Out, who won 2 Jockey Club Gold Cups beating BC Classic, Belmont Stakes, Travers, and Santa Anita Handicap winners in the process.

Back to the female families, it should be noted that Zandon's second dam, Incarnate Memories is the dam of Cairo Memories, who won the 9 furlong Providencia on the grass at Santa Anita the same day Zandon won the Blue Grass.

[Musket Man]

Originally Posted by cj

Starts in the calendar year before the Derby:

2021 Medina Spirit 4
2020 XXXXXXX
2019 Country House 4 (Max Security 3)
2018 Justify 3
2017 Always Dreaming 3
2016 Nyquist 2
2015 American Pharoah 2
2014 California Chrome 3
2013 Orb 3

I don't think it is set in stone that 2 starts is ideal. The horses that won the Derby on the above list with just two starts had plenty of two year old foundation.

Go back further than 2013. From 2007-12, there were 6 straight winners winners of the KD having 2 starts in the calendar year of their "three" year old campaign, starting Jan. 1.

Throw in Nyquist and AP, you have 8 winners with two starts, since '07. Toss 2020 and you have a 57% strike rate, no?

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

Epicenter is so much better bred for the Derby distance than Zandon and White Abarrio that it isn't funny - and with the new dimension that Epicenter showed in the Louisiana Derby, I'm looking for him to be laying like 8th to 10th after the first half mile, taking the lead on the far turn, and then holding off the hard-core closers, which could include Crown Pride and Summer is Tomorrow, for the win.

Summer is tomorrow isn’t a closer, always runs at or near the lead.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Feels like a year for a bomb to come in. Might be a good year to play for that retirement ticket.