Wood Memorial

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Race very likely produces the only undefeated horse that enters the gate in Kentucky a month from now.

Morello is a deserving favorite, but Early Voting is highly regarded and the Barese has earned his shot being 3 for 3 against state-breds.

We also have Long Term who is 4(0-4-0) in 4 career 2nditis starts that shouldn't be looked past nor should Mo Donegal who was favored in the Holy Bull and bested one of the Blue Grass favorites in Zandon in the Remsen.

Great field, and a solid rendition of the historical Wood.

[jay68802]

Mo Donegal 5/2: Was beat by a couple decent ones in last. Has ran 3 solid, but unspectacular races. Catches a field with a lot of speed, so gets a good set up. Can win but not a bet at 5/2.


Golden Code 15/1: Wire to wire two back. Other two races tell the story, losing lengths throughout the stretch. Has to send and has a lot of competition for the lead. Not today.

Early Voting 5/2: Looks to be the speed, but did press in maiden win. Have to respect the last race, but will play in the place and show positions.

Long Term 20/1: A maiden that can't wire maidens. Got to ask why he is here. Could it be that he is the rabbit? Playing the race as if that is true, and not playing this one.

Morello 8/5: Deserves the target on his back. Has not been on the lead, but am hoping the pace effects him. Like the can win, but not playing on top.

Skippylongstocking 15/1: Has a lot of races and won last one. Caught a big pace in last and took advantage of a staggerfest in getting home. Not today:

A. P.'s Secret 20/1: Seems to run the same race time after time. Might be a play in the bottom of a tri, but not for the win.

Barese 8/1: Do not think he is the best horse in the race. And the state bred races bother me. That said, the race can set up for him and the price is right. Playing on top.

[Someday Silent]

I might throw a couple dollars at Golden Code, just in case he's this year's Bourbonic.

Otherwise, I find it hard to look past Morello...but maybe my love for '90s rock bands is skewing my vision.

[Michael]

Cloudy
Wind S at 8 mph
Temperature 49°F
Humidity 80%

What I find most interesting is that Rosario's riding in NY today. What does that say for the trainers in Keenland that he would typically ride for? Obv, his agent thinks there's more money in NY.

Which brings me to Mo Donegal - I looked at the past performances but even without them I would land on Mo. :ace:: The only thing that bothers me is the odds... there's no chance I bet into the win pool here. Pretty sure I'll be using Mo Donegal as a single though.

Barese is the other horse I took two looks at... but just too low on the totem for me.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't have any edge here.

My 'guess' is that Early Voting can carry it all the way on a fast pace. It's not a very biased distance, but it still is an advantage to get the lead and control the first turn. I think Early Voting is really good. Could be wrong.

For some reason, Morello doesn't tickle my fancy. However he's a nice looking horse for a good trainer, and he's push-button. Fits lezcano. Appears to be able to sit in the 2nd group and then run well late. Flip a coin, he could be overrated or he could be graded stakes beast. Just doesn't catch my burnt out sensors and jump out to me.

Mo Donegal even worse. He's such a cool horse. I can see him winning if Early Voting doesn't bottom the field out. Also the kind to pencil in 3rd or 4th.
I was surprised yesterday that Nest took such a step forward for the Pletcher barn, so there's some mild apprehension that Mo Donegal will move forward unexpectedly.

Saffie has a couple in here. That Skippylongstocking horse jumps off the screen as an improvement. He's a barn that can improve. Maybe one of the Saffies can get up for 2nd or 3rd...

Kind of looking for a horse rather than Barese, who I feel was flattered a little bit, and will be everyone's 'logical' 3rd/4th runner


so i have it EVoting/Saffie/MoDon - but like I said, this isn't some edge where I see things that the public has incorrectly, it's just a guess

[Michael]

Just a heads up... just started drizzling here on Long Island. (at least by my house in Nassau County)

[Bennie]

We had a minor hail storm pass through in Somerset county a little while ago with rain mixed in. Headed east but didn't last long. Might add moisture to the turf races but don't think enough to effect the dirt track too much. Especially later races.

[burnsy]

The Gulfstream horses are slow…… and the Gulfstream shipping in wins the Wood

[zico20]

Morella had a slow start but he still lost by what, 20-25 lengths? He won't do anything in the Derby if he goes. I was hoping Early Voting would hold on so he could be over bet in the Derby because he won't get the lead and will tire badly. The winner is a plodder and those don't win the Derby.

[burnsy]

That’s my point . Mo Donegal most likely goes to Wood thinking it’s a softer spot. And it was. Pletcher kind of tipped hand by going from Mdn to Grade 1 Florida Derby with Charge It and then the way he ran. They clearly think he’s something. Mo Donegal needs a pace melt down to win .

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by zico20

MI was hoping Early Voting would hold on so he could be over bet in the Derby because he won't get the lead and will tire badly.

I don't think it's set in stone that he's a one-dimensional frontrunner, but who do you envision being on the lead in front of Early Voting in the Kentucky Derby? He could be the only pacesetter from the 5 main preps that draws into the race.

Classic Causeway and Forbidden Kingdom can't possibly go to CD off their horrendous races for any reason aside from vanity. Zozos didn't set a strong pace in the LA Derby, faded, and could get bumped out if the Lexington produces anything. Emmanuel is on the outside looking in.

Early Voting didn't exactly wilt in the Wood and the raw final 3 furlongs was the fastest of the 5 major preps.

Barring any of the pace figures from today's races (including the Wood), the Withers had the hottest pace of any dirt prep this season (albeit on a muddy track).

[groupie doll]

I just read that there was a speed bias yesterday at AQ. Can anyone confirm this?

[classhandicapper]

It Mo Donegal wins the Derby, it might help bring some respect back to the Wood Memorial as a prep. I've been arguing for a long time that a lot of where the Derby winner comes from is just random or whichever trainers are getting the best prospects at that time, but the Wood is overdue.

[f2tornado]

The raw time in the Wood was the best since Ballamy Road thumped the competiton. The final 3/8th of the top three finishers was borderline rediculous. The Equibase figure was a little below par, suggesting the tracked was souped up. Will see what the other figure makers come up with. Early Voting does check some of the old school boxes; Raise A Native, Buckpasser, Non-Phalaris, fast 3/8th. One I could see hit the Derby tri an an honest price should the speed hold up like it generally has over the past decade.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It Mo Donegal wins the Derby, it might help bring some respect back to the Wood Memorial as a prep. I've been arguing for a long time that a lot of where the Derby winner comes from is just random or whichever trainers are getting the best prospects at that time, but the Wood is overdue.

Disagree. If you have what you think is a top horse if you’re in California you will race there or transfer to Arkansas. I mean, the pattern is plain as day. That’s the pipeline for the west. On the east , these days you will go where the weather is good. So , Florida is the place. It almost guarantee’s a sound training pattern right up until you race and subsequent “step up” preps without interruption. Keenland didn’t even open until Friday, they get the ones that need something to get in. That race in Turfway is the same deal. And you’re not keeping your horse in NY all winter if you know it’s really good. Just the reality of the landscape and logistics. That doesn’t mean these horses will never win from there. They will occasionally. Like anything in gambling or sports training. But jeez, it’s hard to call this random by seeing the results of the last 20 years or more. The favorite this year will probably come from Louisiana. So, we will see. For NY and Keenland it’s just been too few over a long period of time to think it’s an “accident”. People up here with the wherewithal head south at the turn of the weather. That’s life up here.