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Old 09-21-2019, 05:56 AM   #106
Gakiss2
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Thanks for the tips. Best for the night was winner race 8
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Old 09-21-2019, 06:04 AM   #107
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UPDATE: R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T…..… 1-8-2 W/ 4-5-6 …..5:45 AM
4-14-5-3– Dutch Loss 49% Profit Margin - Passed /

It turned out to be a half way decent card. The limited number of playable Dutch Win bets produced a loss of 17% hitting only 2 of 5 playable races. There were also a few decent Verticals hit with some good value.


BTW if anyone used my preliminary picks for the last race the Quinella & Triple were there for the taking at some BIG numbers!

Last edited by Nitro; 09-21-2019 at 06:11 AM.
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Old 09-21-2019, 06:07 AM   #108
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Thanks for the tips. Best for the night was winner race 8
Yeah that was a nice score. Glad you made out and have a good night (morning).
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Old 09-24-2019, 09:16 PM   #109
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. September 25, 2019… 6th race meeting of the 2019-2020 year.
Weather report: 76 Degrees 10% of rain Wind: E 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 6.45am ET, 3.45 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190925_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming


Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 8 Last Kingdom (3-1) Was allowed to get out to an easy lead even after he was tugging at the bit early in the race, he raced on a very strong rail bias and had a 14 pound allowance over second place runner Chefano to finally break his Hong Kong maiden after 21 tries. Draws much tougher field here.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Tianchi Monster (7-2)
Race 5 Smart Of Youth (6-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 1 Green Luck (2-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 8 Sichuan Dar (13-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 4 Such A Happiness (6-1) He encountered serious trouble in his last race before the summer break after an easy win in June at this same level and distance at Sha Tin. Today Yung was able to pick up Moreira for the ride drawing the 6 post in a small field of 9 (smaller fields are common early in the season) and was bet down to the even money chalk. He broke well but soon afterwards Joao grabbed his head and took him to the rear of the field, unfortunately at the same time Teetan on California Legend was able to grab an uncontested early lead and was eventually allowed to set a very leisurely pace for the class. After Moreira was able to get him to the rail he pushed him a little closer to the front settling him mid-pack on the backside, when they entered the stretch Joao moved him out to the four path but was unable to chase down the lone frontrunner while not being overly exerted. He didn't pick up any points in the rating system so he'll be allowed to run in Class 4 again next time out, hopefully he will get some pace to run at.

Race 6 Jumbo Hapiness (11-1) Had been away from the track for eight months and leading rider Zac Purton thought enough of him to get on for Casper Fownes going 5 furlongs at the downtown track. He broke well and soon found himself racing in the rear of the field while Forza Angel and Mr Right were fighting it out for domination of the early lead. After saving ground in the turn he carried his speed to the wire only to be beaten by the high weight favourite Hong Kong Bet who won under a stranglehold under Teetan.

Race 6 Gentle Breeze (9-2) He won his previous race by 2 at his preferred track downtown in Class 4, and was making the mandatory jump up into Class 3 where he hadn't shown much previously. At the break he was caught a little off guard and was slammed by Beauty Charisma after he took a right turn immediately out of the gate costing Gentle Breeze at least 2 lengths to the field. He raced in the rear of the field and was never going to be able to make up the ground he lost at the start but with 200 metres to go he switched to his proper lead and Chadwick asked him for a run and he took off, making up 4 lengths on the leaders and galloped out strongly passed the wire. Hopefully he'll be back at Happy Valley for his next out.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 1 Mr So And So (5-2)

Key Plays:
Race 4 Such A Happiness (6-1)
Race 5 Gift Of Lifeline (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 6 Jumbo Hapiness (11-1)
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Old 09-25-2019, 01:03 AM   #110
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HONG KONG – HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 9/25/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 9 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) – (4)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 6:45 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1800M C4 (9F)T…..…...3-6-4 W/ 1………….….6:45 AM

R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)T………...3-5-6 W/ 4-1-8…….…7:15 AM

R#3- 1200M C4 (6F)T…….....1-6-8 W/ 2-3-9………..7:45 AM

R#4- 1800M C4 (9F)T………...5-3-6 W/ 9-12-1……..8:15 AM

R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T…….....9-2-4 W/ 8-7-11…….…8:50 AM

R#6- 1000M C3 (5F)T …...….4-11-12 W/ 6-2-7……..9:20 AM

R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T …..…..4-12-11 W/ 5-9-3…….9:50 AM

R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T…….5-1-4 W/ 5-1-12 …...10:20 AM

R#9– 1200M C3 (6F)T …..…..6-9-3 W/ 8-4-12….….10:55 AM
.
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Old 09-25-2019, 12:45 PM   #111
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Quote:
R#1- 1800M C4 (9F)T…..…...3-6-4 W/ 1………….….6:45 AM
4-6-2-1– Dutch Win 65% Profit Margin / $29.50 Quinella
Quote:
R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)T………...3-5-6 W/ 4-1-8…….…7:15 AM
1-5-4-7– Dutch Loss 36% Profit Margin - Passed / $17.90 Quinella & $138.40 Triple Bx

Quote:
R#3- 1200M C4 (6F)T…….....1-6-8 W/ 2-3-9………..7:45 AM
9-1-3-2– Dutch Loss 117% Profit Margin / $88.50 Quinella & $661.80 Triple Bx ($4,331.20 Quartet Bx)

Quote:
R#4- 1800M C4 (9F)T………...5-3-6 W/ 9-12-1……..8:15 AM
8-6-5-3– Dutch Loss 89% Profit Margin /

Quote:
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T…….....9-2-4 W/ 8-7-11…….…8:50 AM
9-2-3-5– Dutch Win 68% Profit Margin / $15.00 Quinella

Quote:
R#6- 1000M C3 (5F)T …...….4-11-12 W/ 6-2-7……..9:20 AM
12-6-8-11– Dutch Win 13% Profit Margin - Passed / $39.50 Quinella

Quote:
R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T …..…..4-12-9 W/ 5-11-3…….9:50 AM
2-3-4-10– Dutch Loss 39% Profit Margin - Passed /
Quote:
R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T…….5-1-3 W/ 7-9-4 …...10:20 AM
10-9-11-7– Dutch Loss 72% Profit Margin /

Quote:
R#9– 1200M C3 (6F)T …..…..6-9-12 W/ 8-4-3….….10:55 AM
12-4-11-1– Dutch Win 24% Profit Margin - Passed / $39.00 Quinella

It was another fun but only a break-even type card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Loss margin of 12% and was hit from winning only 2 of 5 playable races. Also hit were a number of Quinellas (6) and (2) nice size Triples.
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Old 09-26-2019, 08:06 PM   #112
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 21, 2019
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Turf: none AWT: Very strong speed

Horses to watch for list:
Race 41
Relentless Me (51) Was caught wide without any cover at happy Valley last May, then at Sha Tin was caught wide again and then blocked in the stretch. Whyte picked up Moreira for this trip at Sha Tin and with the hot new trainer and the Brazilian teaming up together the betting public pounded him down as the heavy favourite. He broke well and then had an insignificant tap soon after the gate by Shouson, after 150 metres Moreira found himself on the lead with Phenomenal on his outside never giving him a breather while the two were setting a quick pace for the class and distance. At the top of the stretch with 400 metres to go, he finally shook off the cheap speed, but with 200 to go he started to tire and couldn't hold off Fun Times who had an 8 pound allowance, Joao put the stick away for the final 70 metres while beating another light weight runner Mr Magellan by a little over a length for second. A real nice effort what with him racing under a new trainer, never getting an early breather and running a very difficult distance (7 furlongs) after the summer break.

Race 46
Assimilate (76) His first try going 1,600 metres after a poor showing in his debut for the new season at 7 furlongs. Schofield was replaced by Ting with Rispoli, and the two of them were caught a little flat footed at the start losing a length to the field, then after 250 metres from the gate he was forced to be taken up when first time Hong Kong runner Arcatraz either had to check up or became rank (hard to tell). After travelling two wide in the turn he was temporarily blocked by Unicorn Jewellery at the top of the stretch, when clear running room became available he closed well on the top two finishers. Hopefully, Ting keeps him at this distance next time out and he gets a cleaner trip.


Horse to avoid next time out:
Race 43
Emerald Spur (51) After being scratched for a lame left front back in June he drew the rail which allowed him to save all kinds of ground in the turn. He was in a little tight at the top of the stretch but a hole opened up when the front runners started to tire badly, he then out finished Falcon Turbo who looked like he didn't want the win, he also had 12 pound allowance against him but the most concerning issue was he drifted out badly in the final 200 metres with him not switching to his proper lead.
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Old 09-30-2019, 05:06 PM   #113
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. October 1, 2019… 7thrace meeting of the 2019-2020 year.
Weather report: 91 Degrees 0% of rain Wind: WSW 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20191001_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 Super Winner (8-5) Is entered in a very chaotic race what with 4 first time starters and besides himself two others who only have one race under their belts. He went off as a triple digit price in his debut and raced very greenly also comes from a barn that 1 for 43 for the meet so far, I will try and knock him at 8-5.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *611 (Winners: 1st, 10th & 14th)
Race 5 The One (10-1)

Race *754 (Winners: 3rd & 7th, Second: 1st & 4th)
Race 5 Ezra (6-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 3 Little Giant (7-2)
Race 3 Rattan (9-2)
Race 3 Full Of Beauty (8-5)
Race 7 Beauty Generation (2-5)
Race 7 Waikuku (9-1)
Race 10 Aethero (even)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 3 Rattan (9-2)
Race 3 Full Of Beauty (8-5)
Race 6 Splendour And Gold (4-1)
Race 7 Beauty Generation (2-5)
Race 7 Nothingilikemore (28-1)
Race 7 Waikuku (9-1)
Race 9 Super Star (5-2)
Race 10 Aethero (even)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 10 Team Spirit (41-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 3 Saul's Special (3-1) Would probably have more wins in his past if handled by a more competent trainer but he seems to finally put everything together now after this try. Zac gave him a nearly perfect ride here, he broke well then soon as the pace set up he took him back off of it and let Moment Of Power and Baltic Whisper go at it. Then at the top of the stretch he moved to the tiring front runners without moving a muscle and only had to outrun Handsome Bo Bo who was conceding 13 pounds to Saul's, after a couple whacks he quickly ran away from the lightweight rival and won under a heavy restraint. He picked up 8 rating points which puts him at 100 which will allow him to race again at Class 2.

Race 4 Witness Hunter(6-1) He threw in a real clunker in his last race of the previous season at the downtown track after being forced to run wide without any cover while being very rank and making a move in the middle of the race. Today he picked up Zac Purton for the trip but the computer gave him the 11 post in a field of 14, at the break he took a slight step to the right and then was bumped back straight by Impeccable Fellow, after all that Zac settled him mid-pack two wide heading into the turn. After drifting to the four path entering the stretch he quickly made his way to the front and looked like it was going to be his day, he just couldn't muster the needed kick to get by the winner Destin, he was passed by second place runner City Legend with 100 to go and was wrapped up after that and galloped out to the wire. Should have more in the tank after this effort and hopefully is treated more kindly by the draw computer.

Race 8 Mr Croissant (7-5) After racing a very nice second after travelling wide in his last back in June. Today he picked up the services of last year's leading rider Zac Purton and received a much better draw in a much smaller field and was bet down as the 4-5 favourite. Raced mid-field two wide in the turn while the pace setters set a fast pace in the turn, at the top of the stretch he moved out to the four path and moved to the front at the 150 metre mark but couldn't hold off the late challenge by the Sha Tin specialist Golden Sixty. Beat the third place runner New Asia Sunrise by a length and a quarter, he should improve off that effort after the extended rest.

Race 9 Cool Team (10-1) Closed to run ninth in the season finale last year only beaten by a length and a quarter to Star Performance going 7 at Sha Tin, now right back in the same conditions but a little easier field and a major improvement in riders going from Callan to Purton which is always worth a couple lengths at the wire. He broke well and was settle in the third flight down the backside two wide going into the turn, at the top of the lane he took himself right to the lead without any encouragement form Zac. Once he took command of the race he looked like he started to wait on others drifting in and out in the stretch but he galloped out to the wire with plenty in the tank for another go at Class 3 again after picking up 7 rating points in the effort.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 6 Chefano (9-1)
Race 10 Dan Control (19-1)

Key Plays:
Race 4 Witness Hunter(6-1)
Race 8 Mr Croissant (7-5)

Longshot:
Race 9 Cool Team (10-1)
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Old 10-01-2019, 12:21 AM   #114
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Cool HONG KONG - SHA TIN TUES - 10/1/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! Let’s hope that the political unrest doesn’t disrupt today’s racing.

I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all 10 races on Turf:
(Class top to bottom) - (1)-Class-GR3 (1)-Class-2, (4)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4,

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM TUES EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

Quite a few of the races this morning look wide open!
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1200M C4 (6F)T……...8-1-5 W/ 10-14-3…….1:00 AM

R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T……….10-12-9 W/ 6-2-3……..1:30 AM

R#3– 1000M C3 (5F)T…..….1-5-2 W/ 6 …………......….2:00 AM

R#4- 1600M C4 (8F)T..….….8-1-4 W/ 6-9-3 .........2:35 AM

R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…….….3-2-4 W/ 5-1-7 …....…3:05 AM

R#6- 1800M C3 (9F)T…...…11-10-14 W/ 4-6-13 …3:40 AM

R#7– 1400M G3 (7F)T……....1-7-2 W/ 4-6 ………...…..4:10 AM

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T……..… 3-2-4 W/ 7-6-9…........4:45 AM

R#9- 1400M C3 (7F)T……..… 1-4-7 W/ 14-10-3…….5:20 AM

R#10- 1200M C2 (6F)T…...… 4-7-9 W/ 14-5-10…….5:55 AM
.
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Old 10-01-2019, 01:10 AM   #115
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R#1- 1200M C4 (6F)T……...8-1-5 W/ 10-14-3…….1:00 AM
1-8-14-12– Dutch Win 39% Profit Margin - Passed / $16.80 Quinella & $352.80 Triple Bx
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Old 10-01-2019, 01:27 AM   #116
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UPDATE: R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T……….2-1-9 W/ 6-3-10……..1:30 AM
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Old 10-01-2019, 01:40 AM   #117
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UPDATE: R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T……….2-1-9 W/ 6-3-10……..1:30 AM
9-8-10-2– BIG Dutch Win 129% Profit Margin / No action on the big LS Placer #8
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Old 10-01-2019, 02:06 AM   #118
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R#3– 1000M C3 (5F)T…..….1-5-2 W/ 6 …………..….2:00 AM
5-6-3-4– Dutch Win 7% Profit Margin- Passed / $33.00 Quinella
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Old 10-01-2019, 02:25 AM   #119
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UPDATE:R#4- 1600M C4 (8F)T..….8-1-3 W/ 14-5-4 .....2:35 AM
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Old 10-01-2019, 02:42 AM   #120
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UPDATE:R#4- 1600M C4 (8F)T..….8-1-3 W/ 14-5-4 .....2:35 AM
1-8-14-12– Dutch Win 52% Profit Margin / $25.10 Quinella & $504.80 Triple Bx
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