Why has technology left handicapping in the dust?

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Who's talking about that?

I use NinjaTrader...you can buy it outright for about $800 or pay about $200 a quarter to use it for as long as you want. And it does everything for me that I wrote about in my original post.

$800 is in the ballpark for the higher end handicapping programs these days (the few that still exist).

And NinjaTrader isn't even one of the best trading platforms out there for the non-pro/retail trader.

I'm talking about tools for a retail player, just like tools for a retail trader.

A Bloomberg terminal? Why would you think that would be an appropriate comparison for this discussion?

Our conversation revolved around the lack of innovation in horse racing technical analysis products and the comparison was made to technical innovation in the trading world. The Bloomberg together with institutional trading models form the equivalent of the "CAW platforms" in horse racing - the highest end data and models to gain an edge in the marketplace.

Innovation in data analytics is not taking place in retail trading platforms priced at $200 per month. Innovation always takes place at the high end of the cost curve and profits (paybacks) extracted first there. Once the innovation moves into the retail market, it is then the definition of the cost of doing business and becomes commodity.

Earlier in this thread, a well articulated point was made : Perhaps the high end data analytics are being created, the "high end platform" is crafted by the CAW research being done, and there will never be a retail outcome from that work.

For a retail player, I would honestly pay attention to the outcomes from the Big Data Derby on Kaggle.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You have not grasped my point at all.

You're talking about professional end systems.

I'm talking about what is available for the RETAIL TRADER today...which certainly doesn't cost $3000 per MONTH or whatever the heck you're talking about.

And which certainly outstrips what is available for horseplayers by comparison in terms of technology, ease of use and functionality.

Under the assumption that I have missed your point which I do not think I have, let's try to pin down the requirement. What would be easier for the retail player today than the current browser / mobile betting interfaces? Most are relatively straight forward - and commodity.

In the data analytics space, are you thinking about the equivalent to a 50-day or 200-day moving average on a stock? Bollinger bands? Graphical presentation of performance data as opposed to the past performance textual data that we all digest?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by steveb

CRWs?

the syndicates who use computers to batch wager a bunch of money into various pools with best possible access to the pool (often seconds better than on track).

These guys on PA can explain better than me.

CRW = Computer Robotic Wagering, sometimes called CAW = Computer Assisted Wagering ( I'm not sure by your post if it was just the acronym that was different to you, or the principle )

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Under the assumption that I have missed your point which I do not think I have, let's try to pin down the requirement. What would be easier for the retail player today than the current browser / mobile betting interfaces? Most are relatively straight forward - and commodity.

In the data analytics space, are you thinking about the equivalent to a 50-day or 200-day moving average on a stock? Bollinger bands? Graphical presentation of performance data as opposed to the past performance textual data that we all digest?

No, my thinking is more along the lines of being able to back test and optimize. Being given a way to easily construct a handicapping model and betting model and test it over a large set of data and also optimize it where possible.

A way for me to easily pick and choose which data points I want to include in my model. A way for me to tell the program to only test on races that are "exactly like this one, or close to it" in terms of conditions, race shape, etc...or not...

I just want something that is flexible and EASY to use...and powerful.

I want something where I can tell it "use this pace figure, use that pace figure, use this finish position, use this speed figure" and then tell it to "go out and CREATE a handicapping and wagering system for me based on the data points I just gave you over last 5 years of data"

Stuff like that. Again, flexible, easy to use and powerful by today's standards.

These are the kinds of things that are available to me in something like NinjaTrader when it comes to trading stocks.

I haven't even touched on the automated trading that NinjaTrader can do, which should also be available in a package like this. Hook into an ADW and place bets for me based on the models I come up with...

All of this basic data analysis and automation is available to the retail trader today, and has been for YEARS...but to my knowledge, nothing like this is available for the average horseplayer all in one application.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Isn't Betmix something like that?

I never heard of that tool, but it sounds pretty close to what he’s looking for.

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

If you wanted to do a simple entries and results app, Equibase feels that you should be paying thousands of dollars a month if that app is consumer facing for the data that supplies that app.

These statements may have been true at some point but are not true today and have not been true for many years.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

No, my thinking is more along the lines of being able to back test and optimize. Being given a way to easily construct a handicapping model and betting model and test it over a large set of data and also optimize it where possible.

A way for me to easily pick and choose which data points I want to include in my model. A way for me to tell the program to only test on races that are "exactly like this one, or close to it" in terms of conditions, race shape, etc...or not...

I just want something that is flexible and EASY to use...and powerful.

I want something where I can tell it "use this pace figure, use that pace figure, use this finish position, use this speed figure" and then tell it to "go out and CREATE a handicapping and wagering system for me based on the data points I just gave you over last 5 years of data"

Stuff like that. Again, flexible, easy to use and powerful by today's standards.

These are the kinds of things that are available to me in something like NinjaTrader when it comes to trading stocks.
.

As far as I knew, that didn’t exist 10 years ago. I’m not sure about now. That’s why I built it for myself. Building a database was not that tough (had some help from several generous people here at Paceadvantage). But I had to code the exact types of questions you are asking, run them against my database, get the answer, write the code to generate reports, new ratings and metrics and keep going. I’m constantly trying to improve my ratings. I have close to 10 years of data now. I’ve been able to answer many of the handicapping questions that dogged me and others for years. But here’s the disappointing part. Most of it is already built into the prices fairly well. It’s very hard to find nuggets of value even with all that data and the ability to ask the right questions.

[Bustin Stones]

At a minimum, you need comma delimited files to paste into spreadsheets so that you can manipulate that data. It would be a step forward if flexible delimited data files of our choosing became available for that.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

At a minimum, you need comma delimited files to paste into spreadsheets so that you can manipulate that data. It would be a step forward if flexible delimited data files of our choosing became available for that.

I'm confused.
What do you gain if the delimiter is changed?

Or do you mean you want fixed width?
(That would bloat the file size by many times.)

[Bustin Stones]

I meant by flexible that a user would get to choose what that file contains before pasting it into the spreadsheet.

[o_crunk]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

These statements may have been true at some point but are not true today and have not been true for many years.

OK then how much are the basic entries and results files for a retail application? Seems you've got some customers right here who are interested in developing. Just give us a general idea.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

I meant by flexible that a user would get to choose what that file contains before pasting it into the spreadsheet.

If you prefer manipulating data in Excel, you can always import an entire file into a database and then write very simple queries to extract only the fields you want and export them to Excel. I do that all the time with different fields each time depending on what I’m studying.

[vegasone]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

OK then how much are the basic entries and results files for a retail application? Seems you've got some customers right here who are interested in developing. Just give us a general idea.

You're just saying stuff about which you have not even researched. Past performances start a little over $100 per month for a subscription. Just depends on the type of info you need.. Just go to BRIS and do some digging to see what suits your style.


If you want to import into Excel just do a little research into its capabilities.

[o_crunk]

Originally Posted by vegasone

You're just saying stuff about which you have not even researched. Past performances start a little over $100 per month for a subscription. Just depends on the type of info you need.. Just go to BRIS and do some digging to see what suits your style.


If you want to import into Excel just do a little research into its capabilities.

The question from OP is - how come there are no retail tools available for the retail player. Files for individual use are very different than files for use in a commercial / retail application and the prices for the former are certainly much cheaper than the latter.

Perhaps you have misunderstood this.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

I meant by flexible that a user would get to choose what that file contains before pasting it into the spreadsheet.

That would mean everyone gets their own unique file.

The cost for such a system would be enormous on the server side.

It is an unrealistic expectation.

Late to the party with this additional quote.
___

If you prefer manipulating data in Excel, you can always import an entire file into a database and then write very simple queries to extract only the fields you want and export them to Excel. I do that all the time with different fields each time depending on what I’m studying.

Exactly right.