Results for 100 first call leader selections.

[teddy]

$600 wagered and return would have been $630. Rebates at 5% would have been $30.00. For a 10% return by simply betting the horse you think will make the lead. Probably didnt play races where the speed horse had never been able to hold on or there was no faith in who would make the lead. There was very little handicapping done and most races were selected in under 1 or 2 minutes. Conclusion is that you could bet all day and night like this and probably do ok if you get a good rebate. For much of the study the roi was near 20%. Fell off in the last 20 picks. I would not bet against any favorites that I thought were going to make the lead by the first call. I am considering a study where I judge if the fav can make the lead reguardless of running style. This procedure of picking the first call leader also puts your horse 123 for the first call manytimes, A significant advantage.

[davew]

was there a race distance or track condition criteria?

[pondman]

A 5% rebate will do it?

You'd have to be highly selective on your races. The high end of racing, especially turf would wipe you out.

I'm not a speed head, and personally prefer to bet some of the worst looking horses (class). However, many of the speed people would go with the 1st 4 to the half. If you pick and chose your races, you could make more than 20% with front end fractions.

[teddy]

Dave... no distinction to anything...

Pondman. Staying witht he top 4 speeds is not a terrible idea..117 win roi if you can pick the favorite that makes the lead... So if you can pick the good favs and they make the lead.. so much the better.