Energy Distribution and the speed figure

[Cratos]

This is the speed curve for the average horse (1,084 Lbs, toting 120 Lbs) running in North America on dirt without respect to class, gender, or racetrack.

Also this is looking at all races on dirt regardless where they were run and in what class that they were run and you find the following speed “bumps” along a logarithmic curve which is downward sloping. The times are in miles per hour

Qtr Mile Half Mile 3/4 Mile 1 Mile
40.7218 38.3585 36.9762 35.9955

The horse will start with about 90,492 J of potential energy and will end the 1 mile distance with about 70,705 J of potential energy; an expenditure of about 21.9%.

Essentially using final times of a race to calculate speed figures is very weak and attempting to project times along a logarithmic curve is not easy.

[cj]

Well by all means show us how to do it using that stuff.

[Freightliner]

Originally Posted by Cratos

This is the speed curve for the average horse (1,084 Lbs, toting 120 Lbs) running in North America on dirt without respect to class, gender, or racetrack.

Also this is looking at all races on dirt regardless where they were run and in what class that they were run and you find the following speed “bumps” along a logarithmic curve which is downward sloping. The times are in miles per hour

Qtr Mile Half Mile 3/4 Mile 1 Mile
40.7218 38.3585 36.9762 35.9955

The horse will start with about 90,492 J of potential energy and will end the 1 mile distance with about 70,705 J of potential energy; an expenditure of about 21.9%.

Essentially using final times of a race to calculate speed figures is very weak and attempting to project times along a logarithmic curve is not easy.

Nice work.
This data is interesting, and it does confirm what I have always believed-horses get slower as the race progresses.
What may be more useful is the leader's MPH.

[Dave Schwartz]

This data is interesting, and it does confirm what I have always believed-horses get slower as the race progresses.

I am not poking fun at you here, but really - doesn't everyone know this?

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I am not poking fun at you here, but really - doesn't everyone know this?

Dave . . . presentation is everything, you know this.

Now, if Cratos will break down the entire 20 horse field for next Saturday, writing a paragraph on each entry using his energy distribution scale, estimations and factors, along with his wagers PRIOR to post, I'll feel more comfortable with his presentation. (Thanking Cratos in advance.)

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Grits

Dave . . . presentation is everything, you know this.

Now, if Cratos will break down the entire 20 horse field for next Saturday, writing a paragraph on each entry using his energy distribution scale, estimations and factors, along with his wagers PRIOR to post, I'll feel more comfortable with his presentation. (Thanking Cratos in advance.)

If I have the time I might just do that. However my wager will not be reveal, but I will reveal the horse I think should win before the race and I will be at the Derby for the 34th consecutive year to cheer my choice on.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by cj

Well by all means show us how to do it using that stuff.

What stuff? What is being said is that the running curve conducted by the thoroughbred during a race is logarithmic and you can’t use just speed to estimate or assess its performance. Stamina and strength are equal components in assessing a horse’s performance.

Therefore if you calculate a logarithmic thoroughbred running curve by integrating speed, stamina, and strength you will obtain the optimum curve for the thoroughbred and if you do that for each horse in a given race it will become very clear who are the real contenders (and typically there are only two), but many times they are the prohibitive favorites and you will have to be patience until you find choices in the 67% subset.

[Dan Montilion]

Most of my horses go in reverse in the stretch.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Cratos

What stuff? What is being said is that the running curve conducted by the thoroughbred during a race is logarithmic and you can’t use just speed to estimate or assess its performance. Stamina and strength are equal components in assessing a horse’s performance.

Therefore if you calculate a logarithmic thoroughbred running curve by integrating speed, stamina, and strength you will obtain the optimum curve for the thoroughbred and if you do that for each horse in a given race it will become very clear who are the real contenders (and typically there are only two), but many times they are the prohibitive favorites and you will have to be patience until you find choices in the 67% subset.

I know, that is how I judge races. Show us an example of how you compare a real race to that curve to determine how a horse ran.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Cratos

If I have the time I might just do that. However my wager will not be reveal, but I will reveal the horse I think should win before the race and I will be at the Derby for the 34th consecutive year to cheer my choice on.

That would be good, Cratos, because what you do--is Greek to me--and I can handicap fine. Don't care how much you wager . . . could care less. Your paragraphs and your technique, though, would be interesting to view.

What I hope you won't do--is come in and post that you successfully had, along with your winner--the exacta, the tri, the super, rolling pic 3 & 4--all after your return flight home. Don't do this, OK? It wouldn't be cool.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Grits

That would be good, Cratos, because what you do--is Greek to me--and I can handicap fine. Don't care how much you wager . . . could care less. Your paragraphs and your technique, though, would be interesting to view.

What I hope you won't do--is come in and post that you successfully had, along with your winner--the exacta, the tri, the super, rolling pic 3 & 4--all after your return flight home. Don't do this, OK? It wouldn't be cool.

If you have followed my posts since I have been on this forum I have never involved myself in exotic wagering and I don’t post a winner after the race. The task to complete all of this by Friday, May 6 is large, but can be done with a diligent effort.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by cj

I know, that is how I judge races. Show us an example of how you compare a real race to that curve to determine how a horse ran.

I not sure what you are saying when you say a "real race" because I don't know of any other type races. I have my calculations from last year's Saratoga meet and I will publish one of those and possibly you will have handicapped the same race.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Cratos

If you have followed my posts since I have been on this forum I have never involved myself in exotic wagering and I don’t post a winner after the race. The task to complete all of this by Friday, May 6 is large, but can be done with a diligent effort.

I'm one who simply uses Bris full pps, the race summary, and pace/performance figures in addition. Lengthy race replays--wish I was good at reviewing, but I'm not.

You'll be good to go, I'm sure. Much good luck. And, of course, its the Derby, the race that is like no other. Enjoy your time at Churchill!

[cj]

Originally Posted by Cratos

I not sure what you are saying when you say a "real race" because I don't know of any other type races. I have my calculations from last year's Saratoga meet and I will publish one of those and possibly you will have handicapped the same race.

That is all I'm saying...take the results of a race, compare it to your curve, and give us a few conclusions about the race. I am not arguing for a second that the curve doesn't have value. It certainly does. I will say the curve can and does differ from track to track, often by a lot.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Cratos

This is the speed curve for the average horse (1,084 Lbs, toting 120 Lbs) running in North America on dirt without respect to class, gender, or racetrack.

Also this is looking at all races on dirt regardless where they were run and in what class that they were run and you find the following speed “bumps” along a logarithmic curve which is downward sloping. The times are in miles per hour

Qtr Mile Half Mile 3/4 Mile 1 Mile
40.7218 38.3585 36.9762 35.9955

The horse will start with about 90,492 J of potential energy and will end the 1 mile distance with about 70,705 J of potential energy; an expenditure of about 21.9%.

Essentially using final times of a race to calculate speed figures is very weak and attempting to project times along a logarithmic curve is not easy.

Cratos,

Thanks for the info. It's nice to see this in MPH. As far as handicapping value, I'm missing the point.