Monte Carlo beta software - any testers?

[highnote]

I've written a Monte Carlo simulator and attached it to this post.

It will generate an oddsline from your ratings.

All you do is:

1. Enter the number of trials -- 1000 is probably a good number

2. Enter the Standard Deviation of your numbers. This is up to you to figure out what to use. For Beyer speed figures I might use 30. They key is that you have to make the SD big enough to give every horse a chance because in reality ever horse has some probability of winning before the race.

3. Enter the number of runners. Currently, the maximum is 6. I'll probably expand it to 40 or more later.

4. Enter the ratings for each horse.

5. Click "Go Monte Carlo".

HINT: Use the tab key to jump from box to box

Good luck. Let me know what you think.

John

PS

PA, any chance you can up the file size limit for uploaded files. 30KB is pretty small. I had to use an old DOS version of PKZIP to make this fit. The WinZip would only make it 30.2KB which exceeded the limit by 0.2KB.


Editor's Note:

You can find the newest version of this software at this link:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...39&postcount=8

[PaceAdvantage]

Sure I can up the limit...however....

What size do you think would be more acceptable, while at the same time, making sure my limited resources aren't pushed to the limit?

I'm open to suggestions....

[highnote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Sure I can up the limit...however....

What size do you think would be more acceptable, while at the same time, making sure my limited resources aren't pushed to the limit?

I'm open to suggestions....

Good question. Unzipped this file was 60KB.

I wrote some other ones that zipped to 4KB.

So this one must be bigger because I put my company's jpg logo on it.

Others I've written were only 20KB unzipped. So nevermind.

You've probably got it set right.

Thanks anyway for your quick reply!

John

[PaceAdvantage]

If you ever need a temporary increase, I'll be more than happy to do it so that you can upload a file......just contact me via PM or email....

[csmith]

Originally Posted by swetyejohn

I've written a Monte Carlo simulator and attached it to this post.

It will generate an oddsline from your ratings.

All you do is:

1. Enter the number of trials -- 1000 is probably a good number

2. Enter the Standard Deviation of your numbers. This is up to you to figure out what to use. For Beyer speed figures I might use 30. They key is that you have to make the SD big enough to give every horse a chance because in reality ever horse has some probability of winning before the race.

3. Enter the number of runners. Currently, the maximum is 6. I'll probably expand it to 40 or more later.

4. Enter the ratings for each horse.

5. Click "Go Monte Carlo".

HINT: Use the tab key to jump from box to box

Good luck. Let me know what you think.

John

PS

PA, any chance you can up the file size limit for uploaded files. 30KB is pretty small. I had to use an old DOS version of PKZIP to make this fit. The WinZip would only make it 30.2KB which exceeded the limit by 0.2KB.

I like the program very much but would like to see more places for runners and instead of numbering the runners could you make a fill in box so that we could insert the numbers ourselves ?? The reason being that in some races you have entries such as 1A or 2b etc..I would also like to see a button that clears all the previous info..Even if you don't want to make these changes I like the program and thanks very much for making it available to us

[highnote]

Originally Posted by csmith

I like the program very much but would like to see more places for runners and instead of numbering the runners could you make a fill in box so that we could insert the numbers ourselves ?? The reason being that in some races you have entries such as 1A or 2b etc..I would also like to see a button that clears all the previous info..Even if you don't want to make these changes I like the program and thanks very much for making it available to us

Good point. I thought about that. Seeing the question in black and white gave me an idea for the solution.

I'll do that and upload a new version once I get several other recommendations.

[csmith]

Thanks. I'll be anxiously waiting. I have been using the program this afternoon at Suffolk with great results




Cliff

[highnote]

Here's a new version that allows you to enter your program numbers.

PA, Do you want to delete the old one to save space?

[csmith]

thanks for the new update. One thing I noticed is that the numers in the probabilty box and the odds-1 are very light in color, very hard for me to read easily. Could those boxes be a darker print ?? I used the program to play Mountainer last night and made a nice profit. Althoug it is great now, I think when you include more than 6 runners you will have a superior little program. I have been looking for something like this for a long time

Thanks again very much,
Cliff

Thanks for your kindness.
Simple and very easy to use.
Would need to allow option of individual SDs for each horse?

I have done a blind trial for the 6.20 7f race to be run at Wolverhampton UK on polytrack. The Racing Post provides a morning line, speed ratings and weight ratings. We have a univeral class/weight type handicap for every horse in UK.

I have had to increase the global SD to 100 for the speed ratings (1) and 50 for the weight ratings 92) to get figures anywhere near the morning lines. SD needs to be calibrated to rating source used.

morning line: name: speed rating: class rating: MC odds1: MC odds2

5/1 No Grouse 70 81 6/1 5/1
6/1 Mozakhrof 50 80 19/1, 7/1
6/1 Patavium Prince 71 84 9/2 3/1
6/1 Redwood Rocks 59 82 13/1 5/1
8/1 Cool Sands 74 80 3/1 8/1
8/1 Dudley Docker 81 82 2/1 4/1

The PP and DD seem to be the potential overlays.
Will update with actual starting prices and results once race has been run.

[csmith]

One more thing I would like to see.. is a way to sort the odds so they will be easier to determine the lowest odd to the highest. I hope I am not pushing the limit asking for things ??


Cliff

[highnote]

Originally Posted by csmith

thanks for the new update. One thing I noticed is that the numers in the probabilty box and the odds-1 are very light in color, very hard for me to read easily. Could those boxes be a darker print ?? I used the program to play Mountainer last night and made a nice profit. Althoug it is great now, I think when you include more than 6 runners you will have a superior little program. I have been looking for something like this for a long time

Thanks again very much,
Cliff

Making the fonts darker is easy to do. I disabled those boxes so that the user could not write in them. I thought that would make it easier to use if the user had to focus on keeping the cursor in as few boxes as possible.

The one good thing about using a program like this though is that at least it systematizes part of your handicapping. It should allow the user to figure out over time what works and what doesn't and then be more consistent.

As far as making an SD for every horse, I may do that, but don't know how much work it would be. I did that for a two team monte carlo simulator I wrote, but haven't tried it for more than two. The other problem with SD is that the program assumes a horse is just as likely to run say 30 points faster as 30 points slower. Maybe a horse can improve by 10 points, but it can probably decline by 30. In other words, a horse's performance is not normally distributed.

The efficacy of this program is a function of how good the ratings are and how accurate the SD is.

The other problem with adding an SD for every horse, etc., is that it will take me a lot of time to write the code. I just wanted to write something quick to make a contribution to the PA members. I wonder if this is tax deductible?

If this starts to get real fancy then maybe people will be willing to pay for a more powerful commercial version? What do you think?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by csmith

One more thing I would like to see.. is a way to sort the odds so they will be easier to determine the lowest odd to the highest. I hope I am not pushing the limit asking for things ??


Cliff

Suggest as many things as you can. That requires a lot of reprogramming to sort everything and then re-display it. I'd have to redo the whole user interface. It can be done, but not easily.

Again, I'm trying to keep it simple, yet help people make a good line.

Sorting would make it more complicated programming-wise and would not make the line any better. However, it would make the overall program more useful, so is something that I would consider later on.

Right now, the priority is to make the software make a good line.

Thanks.

John

[Light]

SJ

I have 2 major ratings I give a horse. One of those is a 3 digit speed rating ,the other is a decimal number such as 2.86. Is the program able to deal with decimals?

Originally Posted by csmith

used the program to play Mountainer last night and made a nice profit.

Can you give some insight into that.

[csmith]

Can you give some insight into that.[/QUOTE]

Yes, I used my top 3 picks in each race. I used the 
program to input my rating. I played any and all of 
my picks that were overlays


DATE		TRK	RACE	HORSE	FAIR	post	TIME	$$$	$$$
			#	#	ODDS	ODDS		BET	RETURN
									
NOV 6		MNR	1	4	2/1	6/1		$2.00	
		MNR	1	7	5/2	5/1		$2.00	
		MNR	1	5	3/1	5/2		$0.00	
		MNR	2	3	4/5	4/1		$2.00	$10.40
		MNR	2	4	6/5	16/1		$2.00	
		MNR	3	2	4/5	4/5		$2.00	$3.80
		MNR	3	5	9/2	3/1		$0.00	
		MNR	3	7	7/1	5/1		$0.00	
		MNR	4	8	5/2	3/2		$0.00	
		MNR	4	2	3/1	6/1		$2.00	$14.60
		MNR	4	5	9/2	3/1		$0.00	
		MNR	5	5	5/2	10/1		$2.00	
		MNR	5	2	5/2	5/2		$2.00	$7.00
		MNR	5	6	3/1	3/1		$2.00	
		MNR	6	4	9/5	6/5		$0.00	
		MNR	6	8	7/2	12/1		$2.00	
		MNR	6	3	5/1	8/1		$2.00	
		MNR	7	3	3/5	3/1		$2.00	
		MNR	7	5	7/5	4/1		$2.00	$10.20
		MNR	8	3	8/5	6/1		$2.00	
		MNR	8	1	5/2	8/5		$0.00	
		MNR	8	4	7/1	11		$2.00	
		MNR	9	4	6/5	1/1		$0.00	
		MNR	9	7	5/1	3/1		$0.00	
		MNR	9	5	7/1	4/1		$0.00	
		MNR	10	5	9/5	2/1		$2.00	$6.60
		MNR	10	6	3/1	3/1		$2.00	
			10	4	3/1	7/2		$2.00	
									
								$36.00	$52.60