Help! Brisnet Ultimate pp’s question

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

Isn’t HSH the most powerful software out there?

It doesn't matter how powerful something is. Put it in the wrong hands and the power can't be harnessed. I'm pretty sure I couldn't get everything out of stock car or Indycar; the pro drivers hone their skills. They put in the time and practice practice practice.

I echo what thask and cj have written as I have posted the same thing a few times. With software, you have to be comfortable with it. If data analysis isn't your thing, why in the world would you buy software that basically sets you up to do data analysis? How long do you think you will use it before you give up and say the program sucks? I had the opportunity to use Jcapper back around the time it was first released. After giving it a whirl for a couple of months I decided that it wasn't for me. Was the software bad? No; I am sure that others have found success with it. It just didn't fit with my handicapping approach. I knew I was not going to get enough out of it to use it successfully.

I'm sure that based on Matt's excellent posts here recently, one or two people will probably buy ValueCapper and expect the same results. They might have the same success if they put in the requisite amount of time/work to learn how to be successful. The vast majority of people won't, and they will say that the software sucks. Many people want a "black box"; they want to click a button and play the program's picks. I won't rehash the reasons that this approach doesn't work unless you develop your own software. That is why I believe software is a tool and not some kind of magical money-making method. (I love alliteration.) The best results come from people who are experts at using the tool. Give me the very best construction tools and I'm still not going to build a livable house -- not even one for the family dog.

I'm a fan of software, and I think it's the best way to make people better handicappers. But that's true only if you find a program that you enjoy using (i.e. not overwhelming), and one that you will put in the time to get the most out of it. Good luck all.

[Aerocraft67]

Day late and a dollar short as usual. But I do use BRIS Ultimate, especially the Ultimate Race Summary.

PressThePace gave you an excellent overview. I'll offer a slightly less specific take on how I use the categories.

I take the summary at face value—it's a summary, using consistent (albeit not fully revealed) formulas. It ranks the contenders on the various factors. It boils down the contenders and identifies standouts and consistencies.

It is not a bet-o-matic machine. If anything, it helps identify factors that will attract money and depress value. Way the best speed at this distance. Class towers over the field. The comments call this stuff out, too, but not in summary.

One limitation is that the formulas are vulnerable to muddied form. I've never been a fan of "last race" factors for that reason. At least not without validating. What if the last race was a misleading exception? But then you're doing individual rather than summary analysis.

I tend to use gap analysis to sort out clusters of contenders. Maybe 1.5 difference indicates a substantially different score on that factor. Top horse five points above the rest may indicate a prohibitive favorite. Four horses within half a point of each other have the same rank to me. You can quickly discern tiers of contenders on each factor.

Prime Power is basically an automated value line, or at least a proxy for one. Useful as an alternative to the morning line and an objective take on the overall credentials of the runners. Tends to match the Twinspires Profit Line, but not exactly. I generally use this to anticipate favoritism. I use it more negatively than positively. High rank gets more scrutiny.

Average Competitive Level and Current Class are the most useful for me. Mainly because they're a systematic attempt to compare class across conditions and tracks. Tends to be less obvious than speed and more laborious to figure manually. And I suspect this is where BRIS excels.

Back Speed is okay if you accept BRIS speed figs. I like to see which have run to the race par. I might also look at the individual early/late pace figs this way.

The track bias statistics are also helpful. They won't identify today's track bias with precision, but they'll tell you if being early or late or inside or outside is consistently advantageous.

Again, it's just a summary. The real work starts by individually assessing vulnerabilities of high-scoring horses and potential for low-scoring horses to outperform today.

Maybe a horse new to today's conditions shows enough overall class to overcome that uncertainty. Or maybe a mediocre record overall lights up in today's circumstances. Or a horse with superior credentials and low odds doesn't really stand out among the top ranked competitors. All worth considering.

There's a ton of information to handicap, more than I can use, so I've learned to accept summaries to get oriented before grinding through each contender's prospects and looking for diamonds in the rough.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by headhawg

It doesn't matter how powerful something is. Put it in the wrong hands and the power can't be harnessed. I'm pretty sure I couldn't get everything out of stock car or Indycar; the pro drivers hone their skills. They put in the time and practice practice practice.

I echo what thask and cj have written as I have posted the same thing a few times. With software, you have to be comfortable with it. If data analysis isn't your thing, why in the world would you buy software that basically sets you up to do data analysis? How long do you think you will use it before you give up and say the program sucks? I had the opportunity to use Jcapper back around the time it was first released. After giving it a whirl for a couple of months I decided that it wasn't for me. Was the software bad? No; I am sure that others have found success with it. It just didn't fit with my handicapping approach. I knew I was not going to get enough out of it to use it successfully.

I'm sure that based on Matt's excellent posts here recently, one or two people will probably buy ValueCapper and expect the same results. They might have the same success if they put in the requisite amount of time/work to learn how to be successful. The vast majority of people won't, and they will say that the software sucks. Many people want a "black box"; they want to click a button and play the program's picks. I won't rehash the reasons that this approach doesn't work unless you develop your own software. That is why I believe software is a tool and not some kind of magical money-making method. (I love alliteration.) The best results come from people who are experts at using the tool. Give me the very best construction tools and I'm still not going to build a livable house -- not even one for the family dog.

I'm a fan of software, and I think it's the best way to make people better handicappers. But that's true only if you find a program that you enjoy using (i.e. not overwhelming), and one that you will put in the time to get the most out of it. Good luck all.

This is absolutely correct Headhawg, it took me probably 18 month to be able to consistently profit from Valuecapper there were a ton of losing days during this time and I definitely lost money the first year I had the program. For me it was a habit of betting too many races, which I still struggle to overcome some days, but I am getting better

I would not encourage anyone to buy Valuecapper unless #1)You are going to seriously bet almost every day and #2) You are willing to put in the time and deal with the losses in the considerable amount of time that it takes to become proficient with the software.

Even now, I just consider myself proficient, I have years to go before I become an expert such as Michael Pizzolla and a few others that use this software.

Best,

Matt

[cj]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

and then theres the real reason I started doing this

#2) A lot of times when Im betting a long priced horse and I happen to be right, it means that the public has the race totally wrong and another longshot comes in on top of my horse. I think just this year before I adopted this strategy in April I missed two ~$1000 one dollar exactas. This seems to pay off for me better than a place bet.

I have stumbled upon the same exact thing in my betting.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by cj

I have stumbled upon the same exact thing in my betting.

Great minds stumble alike

Actually, I would have to credit Michael Pizzolla for me doing this, I wasn't smart enough to figure it out by myself

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

This is absolutely correct Headhawg, it took me probably 18 month to be able to consistently profit from Valuecapper there were a ton of losing days during this time and I definitely lost money the first year I had the program. For me it was a habit of betting too many races, which I still struggle to overcome some days, but I am getting better

I would not encourage anyone to buy Valuecapper unless #1)You are going to seriously bet almost every day and #2) You are willing to put in the time and deal with the losses in the considerable amount of time that it takes to become proficient with the software.

Even now, I just consider myself proficient, I have years to go before I become an expert such as Michael Pizzolla and a few others that use this software.

Best,

Matt

Any piece of software needs "time". From the simplest to the most complex.
The software developers are their worst enemies. They put these time frames for a refund on your purchase knowing quite well it is unrealistic. So now your racing against the clock and the end result is most people wanting a "refund".
I dont understand why they do that because all of them have a registration process that can shut you down and not have access to the program.
For the people that want to go the software route , my opinion is to try them all!! Give a good year devoted to it...your going to have to pay the monthly fee no matter what...Believe me , after the first one you try the others will go faster cause you can figure things out faster based on what you tried prior.

Mike

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Hi Thaskalos,
#2) A lot of times when Im betting a long priced horse and I happen to be right, it means that the public has the race totally wrong and another longshot comes in on top of my horse. I think just this year before I adopted this strategy in April I missed two ~$1000 one dollar exactas. This seems to pay off for me better than a place bet.

Originally Posted by cj

I have stumbled upon the same exact thing in my betting.

Me three. My biggest successes this spring were when I put not one but two of my shots in the exacta, and low and behold they both came in sans favorite.

The temptation is to cover the clever shots with the fave on top (which does happen, of course). But if conditions warrant your shot coming in, chances are they warrant others.

The challenge of course is enduring the low hit rate between scores. And having the right shots. And all the rest.

I want to catch my clever picks in the money but I hate to spread. I do resort to place and show bets for this reason (despite that being the ultimate spread of sorts). I started losing money when I tried covering my underneath ideas in too many exacta and trifecta combos. But you need to spread to hit the unforeseen numbers...

Playing verticals sans favorites is conventional wisdom. But the resolve is tougher in practice.

[Aerocraft67]

Two more quick thoughts on my last post.

I should have acknowledged that I appreciated the perspective; hadn't quite put my finger on it that way before seeing it here.

This is also a case for identifying races themselves prone to reject favorites, as opposed to clever individual picks. Although I'm still about the latter myself, I've read a lot of wisdom here on the former.

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Any piece of software needs "time". From the simplest to the most complex.
The software developers are their worst enemies. They put these time frames for a refund on your purchase knowing quite well it is unrealistic. So now your racing against the clock and the end result is most people wanting a "refund".
I dont understand why they do that because all of them have a registration process that can shut you down and not have access to the program.
For the people that want to go the software route , my opinion is to try them all!! Give a good year devoted to it...your going to have to pay the monthly fee no matter what...Believe me , after the first one you try the others will go faster cause you can figure things out faster based on what you tried prior.

Mike

This is why so many guys like software that uses $1 brisnet files! you can load up the software with old pp's that you have before making any real bets! ValueCapper does come with pass data so you can go through a lot of races before you even make a bet to get a feel for how things work.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

This is why so many guys like software that uses $1 brisnet files! you can load up the software with old pp's that you have before making any real bets! ValueCapper does come with pass data so you can go through a lot of races before you even make a bet to get a feel for how things work.

The big guys know that ...
Why do you think HDW does their file service...to make sure their hands go deep in your pocket..

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

This is why so many guys like software that uses $1 brisnet files! you can load up the software with old pp's that you have before making any real bets! ValueCapper does come with pass data so you can go through a lot of races before you even make a bet to get a feel for how things work.

The problem I have with that is, at least in my hands, most programs work great with old data and Im just making paper bets...……..you don't really learn from your mistakes until the bullets are flying and you lost 50 races in a row!! LOL......that's just my experience. Hopefully this only happens to me!!

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

The problem I have with that is, at least in my hands, most programs work great with old data and Im just making paper bets...……..you don't really learn from your mistakes until the bullets are flying and you lost 50 races in a row!! LOL......that's just my experience. Hopefully this only happens to me!!

At least theres some files there...

the greedy ones want you to buy back data.....

I even heard the statement that 10 years back data still might not be enough....

My stomach turns on some of the crap I heard and seen over time...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

The problem I have with that is, at least in my hands, most programs work great with old data and Im just making paper bets...……..you don't really learn from your mistakes until the bullets are flying and you lost 50 races in a row!! LOL......that's just my experience. Hopefully this only happens to me!!

Not only that...but most handicappers are much more "creative" when they make paper bets than they are when they bet real money. It's a lot easier to bet monopoly money on a 20-1 shot than it is to bet the real stuff.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Not only that...but most handicappers are much more "creative" when they make paper bets than they are when they bet real money. It's a lot easier to bet monopoly money on a 20-1 shot than it is to bet the real stuff.

Ain't that the truth!!!!!!!!!!! Any more though, if I like a horse I will bet that horse even if its 70-1 like this guy in todays GG2. Coming out of the turn I thought he was gonna come up and take the lead......not quite but still got paid!

GG2 060420.JPG

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Do you ever adjust a number in the column? I do it all the time, since that's one of the data points that I use in my Excel sheet. Bris derives that number from a horse's last 3 races, no matter if they were different surface types, radically different distances, or even if a horse had a troubled trip (checked hard, etc.)

One that will really throw the Avg. Speed column off is a layoff. If a horse that had consistently run speed figures in the 80s runs a 65 the third race back, lays off for 4 months, then comes back and runs two races back in the 80s, Bris still uses that 65 in the Rcg Spd Avg. For better or worse, I line out that 65 race and drop down to the 4th back to recalculate the RSA.

No. There were just so many times that the average or best numbers on the last page were useless, I stopped looking at them altogether and only use the data in the PPs that is there once I cross out the pace lines that have nothing to do with today's race.

I actually used Dave Schwartz's method about Find Out What's Winning and found out pretty nothing was. But that one column was the only thing that showed promise.

EDIT - After reading Aerocrat67's post, I realize I DO use the track bias and PP stuff at the top of the page. THAT is helpful, as is the At A glance Columns every week, especially if I am playing a race at a track I don't follow regularly.