Favorite/Least Favorite Races to Handicap

[letswastemoney]

Favorite - maiden claimers

A lot of horses that run in maiden claimers have zero chance. Even better if I can find a speed horse that faded sharply at a higher class. They usually improve by a lot here.

Least favorite - 5 furlong turf sprints

I would be more likely to play any race but a 5 furlong turf race. I'd rather play a 1 mile 10k claimer than a stakes race run at 5 furlongs on turf. Turf races are already bunched up enough at the route distance. If I must play a race this short, I prefer dirt because there's separation.

[Stillriledup]

Favorite distances to cap and or bet:

6F, 6.5F, 7F and 1M if its a 1 turn mile.

Prefer dirt over turf.

Prefer dirt over Synthetic.

Prefer Turf over Synthetic.

Probably prefer Synthetic over slop or "off".

Prefer 5F races over 1 1/8th and longer.

Mostly skip or bet very small amounts on races of 1 1/4 or longer.

Favorite field sizes in order: 8, 9, 7, 6, 10.

Prefer cheap maiden claimers where half the field has no shot. Love starter allowance races. Prefer betting colt races over filly races.

[cashmachine]

I don't like dirt races, and hate yielding wet tracks.

I prefer good or firm turf races with 12 or less participants.

[Robert Goren]

Turf Route races and G3 stakes. G3 stakes are of two types. One is with the "unbeatable" favorite that is drawing bridge jumpers. Type two is a race with a bunch of horses who have never run at the level before and shippers from everywhere. I have no clue about how to handicap a turf route race. I have looked at everything written about and have tried some ideas of my own. Nothing works for me.

[Fingal]

Favorite-

Turf, especially that 6 1/2 down the hill at Santa Anita. Or those at 1 1/4 or longer.

Least favorite, 5 or 5 1/2 sprints on the main track. Or maidens with a bunch of firsters.

[PhantomOnTour]

My least favorite by a wide margin are the 7f turf races at Belmont.

I don't even try anymore, just let 'em go, and don't get me started about trying to make meaningful/useful figures on these contests.

They are an enigma, rolled in shit, wrapped in a riddle & deep fried

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

My least favorite by a wide margin are the 7f turf races at Belmont.

I don't even try anymore, just let 'em go, and don't get me started about trying to make meaningful/useful figures on these contests.

They are an enigma, rolled in shit, wrapped in a riddle & deep fried

I forgot those things. I hate them too. I just hate all 7F race period.

[DeltaLover]

Least Favorite:

Races with a lot of unknowns like for example lots of first time outs in a maiden race or lots international shippers in any race

Most Favorite:

Races where the crowd is concentrating in one or two starters while ignoring the others, like for example this year's TC races or any maiden claimer event where the favorite is dropping from a MSW

[biggestal99]

Breeders cups race with lots of foreigners are particualy juicy full of overlays.

Bettors in the US don't understand that foreign turf form is vastly superior to any US race

Basically it comes downs to whether the horse has shipped well a and isn't over the top

Certainly not outclassed.

I could show example after example over the past 10 years

[thaskalos]

Like - Older horses running on dirt.

Hate - Turf races for inexperienced turf runners.

REALLY hate - All races with less than seven betting interests.

[Valuist]

Favorites: stakes and maiden turf
Least: low level NW2 lifetime claiming

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Breeders cups race with lots of foreigners are particualy juicy full of overlays.

Bettors in the US don't understand that foreign turf form is vastly superior to any US race

Basically it comes downs to whether the horse has shipped well a and isn't over the top

Certainly not outclassed.

I could show example after example over the past 10 years

I think most US bettors, who bet anything at all, are well aware foreign turf form, is usually superior to US turf form.

[Appy]

Ditto on what delta said.
I used to avoid nearly all maiden races, but now find myself targeting them, except for those laden with FST.

[BlueShoe]

Least:

Stakes races.
Unknowns races; first starters, shippers, foreigners, layoff lines.

Becoming more disenchanted:

Conditioned claimers. This includes nw lifetimes, beaten claimers, and worst of all, optional claimers with conditions that only the racing secretary or a lawyer can decipher.

Favorite:

Mid level open claiming races for older males on the dirt. Turf or plastic not as good. Low level or high level okay at times. Distaffers okay at times, but not as good as males. The key words are open claimers.

[Ocala Mike]

Favorite: MdSpWt or MdClm with a single second-time starter in that I can zero in on for a value play on the improve.

Least Favorite: Bottom claimers where the same horses keep appearing over and over again, and seem to keep beating each other at random.