My issue with the Pacific Classic/Baffert

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

It's a lot more than their feelings. It's about Del Mar and California Racing putting on a great show that handles big money. And it's about getting horses to come to California and run in preps for the Breeders' Cup

So? Not their duty or responsibility. They care about one thing, and one thing only, and that's protecting the horse and investment. Baffert was shocked and distressed that he lost, both of these times. If he thought it was the surface, he wouldn't be running over it, or plan to try it again in November.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

So? Not their duty or responsibility. They care about one thing, and one thing only, and that's protecting the horse and investment. Baffert was shocked and distressed that he lost, both of these times. If he thought it was the surface, he wouldn't be running over it, or plan to try it again in November.

That isn't really true. Arrogate will come and go, Baffert will have many more horses. He'll probably need a favor somewhere along the line.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Nice post. I will add that i never lost any respect for Easy Goer and Skip Away for their struggling over the Churchill Downs track. It does happen occasionally. For whatever reason, Smith has said that in both races at Del Mar, he has not pulled up with the same energy as his previous races.

I agree, it does happen occasionally, and for whatever reason, it seems when there's that one surface a horse doesn't like, it's usually CD.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I agree, it does happen occasionally, and for whatever reason, it seems when there's that one surface a horse doesn't like, it's usually CD.

Yep. And the opposite happens too. Giacomo, for instance, really liked CD and moved up there.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Yep. And the opposite happens too. Giacomo, for instance, really liked CD and moved up there.

He got the dream trip of life to win the Derby in slow time (or speed figures, whatever) and ran a so so fourth in the BC Classic while never a factor.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by cj

That isn't really true. Arrogate will come and go, Baffert will have many more horses. He'll probably need a favor somewhere along the line.

There's no favor that Del Mar can possibly do that would be worth the devaluing of this stallion prospect in the millions of $.

No owner or trainer runs a horse like this as a favor to the track if it's not in the best interests of the owner and horse. It just ain't happening, Willis.

There's another story over at Paulick Report:

“For a while he looked like he was gonna have another flop so I was happy when he dug in,” Baffert said, watching the Pacific Classic replay of the tense moments when Arrogate was struggling to find his stride around the far turn. “That last eighth he was just throwing it down there – he wanted it badly. It's not the track or the surface – that's got nothing to do with it. He was still quiet beforehand, not his usual self, but I really think he can come back.”

And he may not even win the Older Male eclipse. Of course, it all comes down to who wins the Classic, but he's no longer a shoo-in and unbeatable, and Gun Runner is now voted the top horse in the country:

The recent Grade 1 Whitney winner Gun Runner took over first place for the first time in Week 30 of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) Top Thoroughbred Poll for horses of all ages, results of which were released today.

Trained by Steve Asmussen for owners Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm, the multiple graded stakes winner Gun Runner(27 first-place votes, 394 points) moved up the ladder to first place after sitting second to Arrogate for the last 21 weeks. The Candy Ride colt won his second straight “Win and You're In” qualifying event for a berth in the Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 4 at Del Mar when he took the Stephen Foster (G1) in June and the Whitney two weeks ago.

Arrogate (10 first-place votes, 356 points), who has dominated the poll the first 29 weeks this year for trainer Bob Baffert and Juddmonte Farms, dropped down a notch to second after his runner-up finish behind stablemate Collected (ranked fourth with 235 points) in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic, a “Win and You're In” contest for a berth in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Arrogate, the leading earner in North American racing history, remains on target for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

[Dahoss9698]

I can't believe anyone believes a word Baffert says ever. If he says it's surface, no way owners run in the Classic.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I can't believe anyone believes a word Baffert says ever. If he says it's surface, no way owners run in the Classic.

I not only never believe any trainer, I basically assume the opposite.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by cj

I not only never believe any trainer, I basically assume the opposite.

Especially him.

[GMB@BP]

Gun Runner....man, just so I have this on the record the next time I forsee him not getting a "candy" trip I am sending it in against him.

Maybe that is the classic, cause nothing has run at saratoga against him but when he faces real pace pressure, something he has not seen since the BC last year he is going to lose.

I will bet Collected against him straight up as I have at least seen Collected in some fast pace races and win.

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Gun Runner....man, just so I have this on the record the next time I forsee him not getting a "candy" trip I am sending it in against him.

Maybe that is the classic, cause nothing has run at saratoga against him but when he faces real pace pressure, something he has not seen since the BC last year he is going to lose.

I will bet Collected against him straight up as I have at least seen Collected in some fast pace races and win.

I'm assuming you are referring to the Dirt Mile when Tamarkuz blew right on by him down the stretch. That's when I went negative on him and I haven't changed my opinion yet.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Two observations about the $1M Pacific Classic, both involving Baffert, and both not good.

1. Did you see his reaction (and the reaction of his wife and son) after he ran ONE-TWO in the G1 Pacific Classic? Totally dejected, sad and his son, in anguish, swore (stay classy). I understand he wanted Arrogate to get back to form but WTF? You just ran one-two in the race. Only in America can a trainer accomplish this feat in a G1 and be upset about it. This bothered me.

2. Arrogate re-rally. Years ago, when Jamie Ness and Justin Evans were winning every other race at Canterbury, you could absolutely tell when their horses were drugged. They would be running in place on the far turn despite the rider "all-in". You felt their horse was beaten and then all of a sudden, the horse would kick in and win. It was actually very obvious to see if you looked for it. It is why these supertrainers like to send their runner to the lead because the drug works to reduce the fatigue factor. Thus you want the horse to be ahead when others start to fatigue in a normal way.

I'm not saying Arrogate was aided in this way but he looked absolutely stalled on the turn. He was being worked and then re-rallied. It looked illegitimate to me.

Getting back to the original point, I'm with you on number 1 but no way on number 2. I watched plenty of those horses re-break at Delaware over the years and that's not what happened here. Arrogate was working his tail off, climbing and struggling, not bouncing along with super juice powers.

[cj]

Food for thought, when Arrogate was struggling to keep up, Collected was really doing some running. The TimeformUS Pace Figure after a half mile was 130, but after a mile was 138. That makes the second half mile figure a 146. The final time figure was 133, meaning the last quarter mile figure in isolation was only 108. That is when Arrogate started making up ground.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Seems that way, but he certainly had natural turn of foot in the Travers.

I agree he showed speed there, but he was already at his best and the rest of those 3yos were badly overmatched at that point.

How good were the horses he was outrunning and how hard were they trying to outrun him?

I don't think horses like American Freedom were even doing their best to outrun him early in the race. Once Smith went from the inside, saved the ground, and cut the first corner, they conceded the lead and rated. It's different late in the race when everyone is doing their best.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by cj

Food for thought, when Arrogate was struggling to keep up, Collected was really doing some running. The TimeformUS Pace Figure after a half mile was 130, but after a mile was 138. That makes the second half mile figure a 146. The final time figure was 133, meaning the last quarter mile figure in isolation was only 108. That is when Arrogate started making up ground.

Does this imply that Arrogate was knocking off fractions that were more or less even while Collected was slowing in the last quarter?