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Old 12-12-2017, 06:42 AM   #496
lamboguy
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Also, use of fossil fuels in power generation is decreasing. GE is laying off 12,000 employees in their electrical generation department because they aren't selling as many fossil fuel power equipment and services.

Countries are switching to cleaner, renewable energy sources.

Things like wind turbines still need a lot of copper and solar still need a lot of copper.

Solar requires about 4 times as much copper as coal power and solar requires about 2 and half times as much.

As fossil fuel power plants are phased and replaced by cleaner power, it is said that about $7.5 trillion will be invested by 2040 and a lot of the cost will be in copper.

Then there are electric vehicles. Copper will be used in electric motors and wiring.
i have been watching copper lately and it is close to its high from 6 years ago. its good to speculate on things that might happen going into the future.

the other area that i happen to like are the devices that can monitor medical patients while they are at home. there are things that are in the developing stages now that monitor people with bad hearts and the device is placed inside the body and can ring a bell when a person is at high risk of a blood clot or a heart attack. i like anything to do with preventive medicine, because once you have the problem its expensive to treat and often times the treatment doesn't work. there has to be something done for the healthcare system because today healthcare providers and insurance company's are nothing short of stick up artists.
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Old 12-12-2017, 04:35 PM   #497
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you know just to be in line with what i am seeing these days, the next generation will be so much different than us. scaleability is out, network effect is in. decentralization is the disruptive concept that tech provides. rental society-control trumps ownership for consumers now (cars becoming a service industry). as far as money goes, fiat currency replaced gold which made money a sovereign undemocratic thing. now Crypto threatens to remove borders for money.

my investments going forward will all be shorts. i plan to short the worldwide hotel industry because they are starting to look like retail centers these days and home owner incentives seem to be going away now with new tax laws. and my major play will be to bet against US Shale because it looks like the Saudi]s will do anything they can do to ice it, and some of the shale company's have very rotten looking balance sheets and will not be able to come close to servicing their debt.
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Old 12-12-2017, 05:33 PM   #498
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you know just to be in line with what i am seeing these days, the next generation will be so much different than us. scaleability is out, network effect is in. decentralization is the disruptive concept that tech provides. rental society-control trumps ownership for consumers now (cars becoming a service industry). as far as money goes, fiat currency replaced gold which made money a sovereign undemocratic thing. now Crypto threatens to remove borders for money.

my investments going forward will all be shorts. i plan to short the worldwide hotel industry because they are starting to look like retail centers these days and home owner incentives seem to be going away now with new tax laws. and my major play will be to bet against US Shale because it looks like the Saudi]s will do anything they can do to ice it, and some of the shale company's have very rotten looking balance sheets and will not be able to come close to servicing their debt.
You make some valid points lambo.

Good luck in any trade you make... just tie on tight since the volatility will be tremendous, IMO.
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Old 12-14-2017, 05:31 PM   #499
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Just my gut feeling that we're very close to the end of this initial record-breaking run-up.

For the first time since I released my public buy call in November 2016 that I actually sold some shares today in two companies. I did because of some of today's news I heard and saw didn't jive right by me.

First the news came out was about McCain who is going to Walter Reed; he might be able to vote. Then Marco Rubio is reported that maybe now he is a no vote on the Tax Reform bill, and this afternoon I hear that Paul Ryan resigned, which was refuted but that smelled all around.

Just an opinion on these three events -- the GOP is ef-ing Trump over and the Tax Bill won't get passed and signed as promised. Again, just my guess.

I have never believed that things happen by chance and now all these things begin happening just days after the media said the Tax bill was a done deal, let's break out the champagne ... yikes.

And --this is a barometer I respect-- the Dow transports also dropped big today. Very negative sign.

Once more, this is how I see it; I'm no expert. Plus, I am always in the minority. I just didn't like today's market from my corner of the world. It can all change next week. Good luck.
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Old 12-14-2017, 05:54 PM   #500
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re: The tax bill --

Found an article on The Motley Fool site that goes on to say the Senate version of the Fed Tax Bill contains a FIFO provision that would negatively impact individual investors.

Motley Fool Staff Dec 14, 2017 at 11:17AM
Our Take: The New Tax Bill Is Bad for Individual Investors. Act Now to Help:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...vidual-in.aspx

Quote:
What you need to know
Both the Senate and the House have passed their own versions of the biggest tax changes of the last 30 years, and lawmakers are making progress on a joint bill through their committee work (reports from yesterday indicate they have a tentative deal). There is one particular part of the Senate bill that could disadvantage you as an individual investor if it makes it through to a vote -- the Mandatory FIFO Proposal.

Here is a brief primer on what this means and why it's important.

FIFO stands for "First-In-First-Out." It is a method for identifying specific tax lots when you have made your total investment over time -- using common strategies like dollar-cost averaging, dividend reinvestment plans, buying in thirds, or simply making annual lump sum contributions.

(By the way, senators, many of your constituents invest this way.)

The Senate's version proposes that all dispositions -- including sales, donations, and gifts of investments -- be on a first-in-first-out basis (FIFO). This means, if you want to sell, you must sell the oldest lot, which in all likelihood (especially after a very healthy 9-year bull market) has the lowest cost basis and the highest embedded capital gains. The proposal eliminates investor choice.

What does no choice look like?
Here's an example that might be common to Motley Fool investors.

Say you own 200 shares of Amazon that you purchased twice during the last five years: 100 shares at $300 per share in 2013, and another 100 shares at $700 per share in 2016. If you sell 100 shares at $1,100, then under the Senate proposal you would have to designate the older shares to sell and pay capital gains taxes on $800 [per share] instead of on $400 [per share].

Simply put, you wouldn't have the option to choose, for yourself and your family, which of your own shares of stock to sell!

Under current tax rules, individual investors have the choice of which tax lots to dispose of. This allows for such tax planning strategies as tax-loss harvesting and donating appreciated stock to charities.

It also provides individual investors the flexibility to create sensible financial plans that correspond to their circumstances by having the flexibility to take on a higher tax burden when the situation affords it and being more tax sensitive when times are tougher.

These tax-management strategies would be severely limited in the new tax world, and that could leave you and charities worse off.

Who could this hurt?
In a word: You.


-jp

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Last edited by Jeff P; 12-14-2017 at 05:57 PM.
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Old 12-14-2017, 07:08 PM   #501
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re: The tax bill --

Found an article on The Motley Fool site that goes on to say the Senate version of the Fed Tax Bill contains a FIFO provision that would negatively impact individual investors.

Motley Fool Staff Dec 14, 2017 at 11:17AM
Our Take: The New Tax Bill Is Bad for Individual Investors. Act Now to Help:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...vidual-in.aspx





-jp

.
FIFO is out of the final bill. Multiple reports on this.

Looking forward to seeing the actual bill come out of the conference although there are now reports that Marco Rubio and Mike Lee could oppose it. With Corker already opposed that would kill it.

Most are treating this as a done deal. The Senate is going to be the narrow gate. I’m sure they want to get this done before Jones is seated. Apparently, Pence has delayed an Israel trip to be available for the final vote.

Should be interesting.
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Old 12-14-2017, 08:42 PM   #502
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I’m in the Post Office today mailing a Christmas card. Woman behind the desk is wondering out loud if Amazon is in the S&P 500. No one answers.

The woman goes on saying how well she has done with the S&P. IRA and all. (Impressive, I thought.) Someone on line concurs.

“It will continue going up forever.” Not today, I say. “Grinch that stole Christmas” another patron says.

Me: Go ahead and shoot the messenger. (Bad news gets no respect and I cower out and wish all a Happy Holiday.)

Not saying the same as the “Shoe shine guy giving tips", but close.
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Old 12-15-2017, 02:02 PM   #503
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Well, at least we've stopped posting all those epic calls for a market crash.

I'm grateful for small favors
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Old 12-15-2017, 03:33 PM   #504
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FIFO is out of the final bill. Multiple reports on this...

Should be interesting.

It appears you are correct about FIFO being cut from the bill.

FIFO Rule Reportedly Cut from Tax Reform Bill:
http://www.wealthmanagement.com/indu...ax-reform-bill

Quote:
The so-called "first-in, first-out" or FIFO rule, requiring investors with taxable brokerage accounts to sell shares they've owned the longest first, has reportedly been cut from the tax reform bill.

Fyi, when I posted about this yesterday I was pretty worked up.

That said, even though the FIFO provision has now reportedly been cut from the bill -- the thought it was in there in the first place has me equally worked up.

A FIFO provision being written into the bill in the first place means that some Senator somewhere -- or worse a group of Senators collaborating on the bill -- actually believed (or still believes) that beating up individual investors is a good idea.


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Old 12-15-2017, 04:08 PM   #505
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to me this whole tax bill sounds to much of a good thing. i know it looks like this market is never going to go down, and i would never short it right now. every fundamental to me looks like the valuations are still cheap based on the the way things are done in today's world. the telltale sign will be when the bond market or i should better say if the bond market begins to tank. right now the treasury pro's are betting on lower rates going forward. if that is the case you will get massacred if you step in front of this thing and try to short it.

when it does come a time to short, this market market will go down just like
Grant took Richmond.

stay tuned
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Old 12-15-2017, 07:37 PM   #506
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It appears you are correct about FIFO being cut from the bill.

FIFO Rule Reportedly Cut from Tax Reform Bill:
http://www.wealthmanagement.com/indu...ax-reform-bill




Fyi, when I posted about this yesterday I was pretty worked up.

That said, even though the FIFO provision has now reportedly been cut from the bill -- the thought it was in there in the first place has me equally worked up.

A FIFO provision being written into the bill in the first place means that some Senator somewhere -- or worse a group of Senators collaborating on the bill -- actually believed (or still believes) that beating up individual investors is a good idea.


-jp

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FIFO would have impacted hedge funds and other large money managers a lot more than it hit any but the wealthiest individual investor. You can thank their influence for it’s absence.

I’m agnostic on it’s inclusion. I’ve never in 30 years considered what lots I was selling since I’ve generally held everything more than 2 years but I understand why it would be important to others.
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Old 12-15-2017, 08:28 PM   #507
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I’m in the Post Office today mailing a Christmas card. Woman behind the desk is wondering out loud if Amazon is in the S&P 500. No one answers.

The woman goes on saying how well she has done with the S&P. IRA and all. (Impressive, I thought.) Someone on line concurs.

“It will continue going up forever.” Not today, I say. “Grinch that stole Christmas” another patron says.

Me: Go ahead and shoot the messenger. (Bad news gets no respect and I cower out and wish all a Happy Holiday.)

Not saying the same as the “Shoe shine guy giving tips", but close.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/413...market-decline

Long read and only half the author’s thoughts but aligned with the idea of stock tips from a cab driver.

I don’t dabble in this kind of trade but was certainly aware that shorting volatility has been a profitable trade. Didn’t realize that Target managers were making millions.

(Pause) (Swallow).

Still think an actual inversion of yield curve will precede any stock sell off.
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Old 12-28-2017, 02:17 PM   #508
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Well, I guess 2018 will be the year for the beststockintheworld(c) SFOR , cause 2017 wasn't .
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Old 12-29-2017, 11:01 PM   #509
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All things considered, that was a pretty nice little nosedive today near the end of the trading session (at least it was if you were watching ES futures)...anyone know why? End of year tax loss selling? Like anyone lost money in the markets this year? (that's a joke son).
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Old 12-30-2017, 01:21 PM   #510
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Were some headlines about Russia and No Ko. That's my guess.
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