Breeders cup- Most likely winner, best value and tosses

[olddaddy]

Watch the break from a horrible post and the trip on a front running grass course, also very impressive.

[Redboard]

So far so good CJ. You had Bulletin as your value play (on the DRF show, although he went off as the 2nd fav surprisingly ) and your mortal lock won the 6th.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by olddaddy

Watch the break from a horrible post and the trip on a front running grass course, also very impressive.

That's who I keyed. She ran really really well also. I saved with a place bet and the exacta so I made a few bucks, but the winner was a monster. East may have jumped up a bunch like I was hoping and expecting given the start, position, and ground, but the other one freaked. It wasn't nearly enough even with a better trip.

[RunDustyRun]

Originally Posted by RunDustyRun

Value -- Anonymity in the F&M sprint...beautiful filly who Mandella has brought along slowly..last race sets her up for a huge run in my eyes

Toss -- Bellafina...dont trust the trainer as he burns horses out and come home times are nothing special...east coast fillies look better to me

The next time Callaghan can get his horses to run three good races in a row will be his first time...

[fiznow]

My value plays for Saturday:


R3 BC Filly and Mare Sprint
Sel #9 Stormy Embrace ML 20-1

R4 BC Turf Sprint
Sel #10 Havana Grey ML 20-1

R5 BC Dirt Mile
Sel #4 Seven Trumpets ML 15-1

R6 BC Filly and Mare Turf
Sel #14 Eziyra ML 15-1


R8 BC Mile
Sel #14 Mustashry ML 15-1


R11 BC Classic
Sel #2 Roaring Lion ML 20-1


Most likely winner:
Enable

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Other than the odds assessment (which may even be a bit light), I completely disagree with your comments about Pavel. I’m not even sure we’re looking at the same PPs. If you really believe that horse has more talent than other’s in this race I would question how you evaluate Class to begin with.

This race is not just about the “favorite not firing” and it’s certainly not a crap shoot. There are quite a few REALLY talented horses in this years BC Classic, but Pavel in my estimation is not among them.

Yes, you guessed it: Its TOSS for me. Personally, even at 100/1 I wouldn’t bet that horse with your money. But who am I to talk you out of throwing your money at any long shot?

Good Luck!

we must have different assessments of talent, I dont see a ton of talent in this field.

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by SeaHorseRacing

Sticking my neck out here.

I think Game Winner is just a completely different class to the field.

nice call

[SeaHorseRacing]

Originally Posted by SeaHorseRacing

These are my Plays at Breeders Cup at UK bookmaker prices. I feel have some value.

Not all of them have a 100% overlay. The horses I have marked with a * I have noted what I think are serious bets in terms of Value.

BC Juvenile Turf: Bulletin 9/1
I don’t feel the Europeans are of any real threat. There doesn’t appear to be any stand out star. Additionally feel that the Europeans are exposed.
Bulletin has the potential to be a star. It’s imposible to know but after one run this horse could be anything.
I’ve rated Bulletin a 25%.

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf: Newspaperofrecord 7/4
My only concern with this race is out of all the turf races this has the most horses who I believe are unexposed. I don’t see much value in this bet but I do feel newspaperofrecord has the best form on offer.
A lot of UK horses trying a new distance who could be anything.

BC Juvenile Fillies: Sippican Harbour 6/1

I don’t know a massive amount about US horses but I think the extra furlong could see some improvement in what looks a lovely horse. I think the market is over looking this runner due to the strength at the head of the market.
I think this Filly is a genuine 4/1 shot (25% chance)

BC Juvenile Turf: Uncle Benny 16/1
This horse sticks out like a sore thumb!! It actually really excites me because I feel the favourite can be thrown out.
Anonthy Van Dyk was Derby fav for next year not so long ago and I think Aiden O’Brien has mad a bad call with this horse. I expected him to be tucked away for the winter but he just keeps going racing. I think ballydoyle know this horse is not as good as they thought. He’s been drawn too far wide and had a tough season.
I think Uncle Benny stepping up a further 2 furlongs is very exciting!! I think he’s bred for a mile and I can see huge improvement in this horse.
16/1 available on horse who I feel is 4/1 shot (25%)

BC Juvenile: Game Winner 7/4
As a specimen this horse looks an absolute monster. He looks visually a different league to any horse I’ve seen. Although sectionals may not say he’s that far ahead I believe this horse is a champion. Expecting further improvement from a horse who imo looks like a 5 year.
Complexity looks good on paper and could be a danger but I genuinely feel Game Winner has over a 50% chance of winning.
Some lovey value there!

BC Filly & Mare Sprint: Golden Mischief 14/1
I have been scratching my head here as I still don’t know why Golden Mishief is such a big price. I don’t follow US racing everyday but do feel this horse has a fair chance and feel Marley’s Freedom is slightly on the short side considering Selcourt is in the race too.
Fell Golden Mischeif will show.

BC Turf Sprint: Conquest Tsunami 11/1
Disappoint about the draw. But I am sticking with gelding. He wasn’t too far away from some of these in previous meetings who are considerably shorter in the betting. The drop back to 5.5 furlongs might reverse the form and fell he’s a fair 7/1 shot and 11/1 is gernous imo.

BC Dirt Mile: Catalina Cruiser 11/8
My favourite horse of the meeting. Hopefully will go the Classic next year...
This is the strongest horse in relation to its opposition imo.
I can’t offer anything people may already know but I do feel there’s still value in this horse. Come Saturday he may look like 1/2 shot if he wins well.

BC Filly & Mare Turf: Sistercharlie 3/1
Very difficult race to asses. A lot of unexposed horses and this maybe a clean sweep for European horses.
I find Sistercharlie interesting because I think 11f is the perfect trip but feel 3/1 is a very efficient price.

BC Sprint: Promises Fulfilled 11/2
The way Promises fulfilled battled for the pace and won last time out was very impressive. Again I’m not sure what the clock says but his video form has really taken my eye. I think this is another race where the top two in the market are taking too much attention. I think this horse has a lot of improvement to come considering this distance is fairly new to the horse.
7/2 I have him.

BC Mile: Polydream 11/4
Probably Europe’s strongest fav (excluding Enable) the only Filly who has been running in top races compared to her competitions.
I have her an Even money shot. This horse could be the new Goldikova totally unexposed. Ignore the last run I feel it was a group 1 prep for this race, had 0 luck in running and finished 7th on the bridle. Her opposition look below BC Mile quality.

BC Turf: Waldgeist 11/2
A horse I’m prepared to take another chance. Not very often i back the same horse almost as blindly as will with Waldgeist but I feel this race is a two horse race and if Enable doesn’t fire he be there to take the crown.
Surprised by the price.. feel he’s a 3/1 shot.

BC Classic: McKenzie 5/1
A very open classic this year but I feel this horse has the most improvement to give and a horse who hasn’t even tried 10f yet is a bet I want to be on.
I have him as 3/1 joint favourite with Accelerate.
McKenzie reminds me of Blame who beat the mighty Zenyatta.

Uncle Benny broke my heart last night.

[Loserdave]

Saturday
Most Likely Winner: Catalina Cruiser
Value: Lightning Spear
Toss: Oscar Performance

[powerrun]

Originally Posted by Fuss

That's good twitter humor.

I'm curious how fast #2 The Mackem Bullet might be. Do you have any idea?
Nobody in either of Newspapers 2 races has done much since.

Le Pelosa #5, 15-1 ML. Passed 10 in last, and passed them up the gut too. That's a good sign for 2YO. Some rail, but most of the dirty work was well earned. He was also a bit green in the stretch or else might have won by 3.

NOR is untested. Weak fields, Only yielding turf. No interest at odds on. But other than Summering #12, I can't see enough speed to set up Le Pelosa.

And honestly, I seen this enough that Its a real possibility.. Somebody pulls up to Newspaper of record at the 16th pole and he just Folds.... seen that plenty from these loose horses that get over hyped. I also don't trust the beyers, and your figures don't exactly flatter him either.

Holy Cow! I believe Newspaperofrecord will go on to be a champion just like her sire, Lope de Vega. I love when I spot a horse before their first start and then they go on to be eventual champions. Actually, the pace and final times of the two prior races were impressive for a 2 year old turf runner. I was watching CBS sports before the race and I heard that Brown said Newspaperofrecord is a "special" horse. Rarely does Brown hype a horse in such a vocal way, at least not before the race.

[classhandicapper]

Not that I think speed figures are especially significant on turf, but Newpaperofrecord = Beyer 96 vs a Breeder's Cup PAR of 87.

Another big jump up

Last 3.

96
88
78

[castaway01]

Some 10-1ML and up horses who could do something today:

Filly and Mare Sprint: Finley'sluckycharm 10-1
Why: 6 for 7 at track

Turf Sprint: Rainbow Heir 12-1
Why: Servis, huge efforts at times

Filly and Mare Turf: Princess Yaiza (IRE) 30-1
Why: Loves soft turf

Eziyra (IRE) 15-1
Why: Has the talent, 1st Lasix, did get awful post or else should be 5-1

Mile: I Can Fly (GB) 10-1
Why: O'Brien; lost neck to Roaring Lion who is very tough

Distaff: La Force (GER) 20-1
Why: I admit it's tough to see her winning but in the money is not impossible at big odds. At least put her in your bets.

Turf: Channel Maker 12-1
Why: Granted Enable is a killer but likes soft turf, huge efforts at times. Negative is not liking yielding ground at CD. I actually prefer Waldgeist to pull the upset but he's not 10-1ML

Classic: Pavel 20-1
Why: I would pick West Coast on top but we're talking longshots. Pavel should get pace to run at, has won over track. Yoshida also worth a play if you get 10-1 and up, or Thunder Snow depending how the inside looks.

[MadVindication]

Dirt Mile: Bravazo
Classic: Thunder Snow

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

Dirt Mile: Bravazo
Classic: Thunder Snow

Great call


I never would have used Bravazo. Did key TS

tough weekend for me. I didn't exploit the Patch race. I didn't hammer City of Light. Was lucky in the Classic to get back.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by azeri98

I love Code of Honor in the Juvenille

That was pretty much the ONLY wager I was interested in making on Friday.