Breeders cup- Most likely winner, best value and tosses

[jay68802]

Saturday Race #4: Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Grade I

Rainbow Heir 12-1

Picked this one in his last race and could only muster a third place finish. Plenty of speed in here to set up the late kick. The extra 1/2 furlong should heip also. 7 of 10 in the money finishes help, and the pilot is 2 for 2 on this one.

[metro]

Catalina Cruiser is certainly the most likely winner of the Dirt mile but the race still offers value imo. City of Light drew the rail and I'm hoping she doesn't get the trip from there, will try and get her out of the money.

Giant Expectations the value play....2nd off layoff.....brought to CD for the Ack Ack back in Sept.....good at one turn 7F and mile races.....Eurton wanted outside draw and got it.

Awesome Slew another who could hit the exotics at a boxcar price.

[parlay]

Originally Posted by Fred Mertz

I'll bet Blue Prize with my life savings...$40 bucks.

How the hell did you manage to save that much
Clearly your not a degenerate

[MutuelClerk]

Don't really have a most likely winner. Two best values.

Limousine Liberal. At this website with a name like that I could get 99-1. Horses for courses? Half his earnings have been made at CD. Hopefully enough pace for him.

Blue Prize. Great form. Again. Races well at CD.


Favorites i'm beating. Monomoy Girl. Accelerate. Might as well save the best for last.

Waldgeist maybe over Enable? Using those two in the P4. Polydream road trouble in last. Must use in the first leg. Classic field not very impressive to me this year. I thought West Coast was more impressive than McKinzie in their last starts yet Smith took McKinzie. Does Smith have loyalty with Pegram?

[Mailman]

MutualClerk
I read somewhere that Smith was riding McKinzie because they were running him next year as a 4yo and did not want to lose the mount if he won the Classic. It was in the Louisville Courier Journal. It said he had a choice of the two of them.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Mailman

MutualClerk
I read somewhere that Smith was riding McKinzie because they were running him next year as a 4yo and did not want to lose the mount if he won the Classic. It was in the Louisville Courier Journal. It said he had a choice of the two of them.

Baffert said that in an interview

[SeaHorseRacing]

These are my Plays at Breeders Cup at UK bookmaker prices. I feel have some value.

Not all of them have a 100% overlay. The horses I have marked with a * I have noted what I think are serious bets in terms of Value.

BC Juvenile Turf: Bulletin 9/1
I don’t feel the Europeans are of any real threat. There doesn’t appear to be any stand out star. Additionally feel that the Europeans are exposed.
Bulletin has the potential to be a star. It’s imposible to know but after one run this horse could be anything.
I’ve rated Bulletin a 25%.

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf: Newspaperofrecord 7/4
My only concern with this race is out of all the turf races this has the most horses who I believe are unexposed. I don’t see much value in this bet but I do feel newspaperofrecord has the best form on offer.
A lot of UK horses trying a new distance who could be anything.

BC Juvenile Fillies: Sippican Harbour 6/1

I don’t know a massive amount about US horses but I think the extra furlong could see some improvement in what looks a lovely horse. I think the market is over looking this runner due to the strength at the head of the market.
I think this Filly is a genuine 4/1 shot (25% chance)

BC Juvenile Turf: Uncle Benny 16/1
This horse sticks out like a sore thumb!! It actually really excites me because I feel the favourite can be thrown out.
Anonthy Van Dyk was Derby fav for next year not so long ago and I think Aiden O’Brien has mad a bad call with this horse. I expected him to be tucked away for the winter but he just keeps going racing. I think ballydoyle know this horse is not as good as they thought. He’s been drawn too far wide and had a tough season.
I think Uncle Benny stepping up a further 2 furlongs is very exciting!! I think he’s bred for a mile and I can see huge improvement in this horse.
16/1 available on horse who I feel is 4/1 shot (25%)

BC Juvenile: Game Winner 7/4
As a specimen this horse looks an absolute monster. He looks visually a different league to any horse I’ve seen. Although sectionals may not say he’s that far ahead I believe this horse is a champion. Expecting further improvement from a horse who imo looks like a 5 year.
Complexity looks good on paper and could be a danger but I genuinely feel Game Winner has over a 50% chance of winning.
Some lovey value there!

BC Filly & Mare Sprint: Golden Mischief 14/1
I have been scratching my head here as I still don’t know why Golden Mishief is such a big price. I don’t follow US racing everyday but do feel this horse has a fair chance and feel Marley’s Freedom is slightly on the short side considering Selcourt is in the race too.
Fell Golden Mischeif will show.

BC Turf Sprint: Conquest Tsunami 11/1
Disappoint about the draw. But I am sticking with gelding. He wasn’t too far away from some of these in previous meetings who are considerably shorter in the betting. The drop back to 5.5 furlongs might reverse the form and fell he’s a fair 7/1 shot and 11/1 is gernous imo.

BC Dirt Mile: Catalina Cruiser 11/8
My favourite horse of the meeting. Hopefully will go the Classic next year...
This is the strongest horse in relation to its opposition imo.
I can’t offer anything people may already know but I do feel there’s still value in this horse. Come Saturday he may look like 1/2 shot if he wins well.

BC Filly & Mare Turf: Sistercharlie 3/1
Very difficult race to asses. A lot of unexposed horses and this maybe a clean sweep for European horses.
I find Sistercharlie interesting because I think 11f is the perfect trip but feel 3/1 is a very efficient price.

BC Sprint: Promises Fulfilled 11/2
The way Promises fulfilled battled for the pace and won last time out was very impressive. Again I’m not sure what the clock says but his video form has really taken my eye. I think this is another race where the top two in the market are taking too much attention. I think this horse has a lot of improvement to come considering this distance is fairly new to the horse.
7/2 I have him.

BC Mile: Polydream 11/4
Probably Europe’s strongest fav (excluding Enable) the only Filly who has been running in top races compared to her competitions.
I have her an Even money shot. This horse could be the new Goldikova totally unexposed. Ignore the last run I feel it was a group 1 prep for this race, had 0 luck in running and finished 7th on the bridle. Her opposition look below BC Mile quality.

BC Turf: Waldgeist 11/2
A horse I’m prepared to take another chance. Not very often i back the same horse almost as blindly as will with Waldgeist but I feel this race is a two horse race and if Enable doesn’t fire he be there to take the crown.
Surprised by the price.. feel he’s a 3/1 shot.

BC Classic: McKenzie 5/1
A very open classic this year but I feel this horse has the most improvement to give and a horse who hasn’t even tried 10f yet is a bet I want to be on.
I have him as 3/1 joint favourite with Accelerate.
McKenzie reminds me of Blame who beat the mighty Zenyatta.

[Robert Fischer]

After looking at the whole picture, JFT looks like a 'Pass' for me.

May get 35-1 on Mackem Bullet. The talking heads will dismiss her, and NPR will take $$, but even building Tris and Supers to feature MB in underneath slots is muddled w/ unexposed foreigners and enough lump-up American closers.

I suppose a single is in order if you really want to stretch a 7,8,9 P3 into a single-7,8,9-single P5...

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Newspaperofrecord looks tough.

She may end up dictating some of my race selection for Friday, once I've seen the bigger picture.

She should be on or right near early, and it's hard to find anyone who is really going to collapse the pace. Concrete Rose should be prominent, having drawn the rail and sporting solid pace figures. Summering isn't typically ridden like a sprinter in spite of the 'Cali reputation for speed.

Either Newspaperofrecord has an off night, or she trounces this field up front, or East is also some freak, and we have some very rare special edition of the JFT...

East could be good, and you've got 17 seconds to find a decent spot, but even 3-wide and off the pace is a disadvantage if Newspaperofrecord is out front dictating a moderate pace.

With prices to come up for the board; I find The Mackem Bullet arousing. She seems relatively game, and I have a thing for foreign shippers who have to stretch out. The scenario suits particularly well here. Lily's Candle is solid at a shorter price.

[classhandicapper]

For anyone that watches replays of the foreign races on Youtube or at another source, it can sometimes be difficult to figure out which horse is which from the replays. Timeform has the Post Positions in their foreign PPs. That has come in handy for me a few times watching the races because I knew where the horse was starting from and could pick it up quickly.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

For anyone that watches replays of the foreign races on Youtube or at another source, it can sometimes be difficult to figure out which horse is which from the replays. Timeform has the Post Positions in their foreign PPs. That has come in handy for me a few times watching the races because I knew where the horse was starting from and could pick it up quickly.

I usually have to watch it multiple times and look for colors of the silks

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Afleet

I usually have to watch it multiple times and look for colors of the silks

Yeah, I look for the silks too, but if you know the PP and color of the silks it's very easy even if the replay is in a foreign language, the horses are all over the track, and multiple horses have similar silks. It's not essential, but if you have a Timeform account, it helps. That's one way I use it.

[Redboard]

Most likely: R9 –Juvy (dirt) - Game Winner 8/5
Value: R8 - Juvy (turf) - Line of Duty 10/1
Toss: R5 - Juvy Sprint (turf) – Strike Silver 4-1

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Track conditions this weekend are gonna be crazy. Very simply why I didn't travel to Churchill to break a streak of attending 10 straight Breeder's Cups was because of what we are seeing now.


Anyway per the request:


Most Likely: Imperial Hint


Best Value: Big Drink of Water/ Line of Duty/Dueling/Hembree/Eziyra/Mushtashry/Wow Cat/Hi Happy


Tosses: Monomoy Girl/Bellafina/Complexity/Disco Partner-Stormy Liberal/Oscar Performance/McKinzie

[ARAZI91]

Originally Posted by SeaHorseRacing

BC Mile: Polydream 11/4
Probably Europe’s strongest fav (excluding Enable) the only Filly who has been running in top races compared to her competitions.
I have her an Even money shot.

.

An Even Money shot - really!! There are 6 in here who on their best form are no more than 3lbs apart - That's not including Mutashry and One Master who are both from top trainers and maybe again 3lbs below the lowest rated of that six.
Pretty deep field for evens.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Most likely: R9 –Juvy (dirt) - Game Winner 8/5
Value: R8 - Juvy (turf) - Line of Duty 10/1
Toss: R5 - Juvy Sprint (turf) – Strike Silver 4-1

Thinking we'll be getting half of that ML on Line of Duty.