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Old 09-19-2019, 01:03 PM   #1
horseplayer
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The Company Line

How many of you checkout the company Line in the past performances just to see who ran against who and what are their odds today etc. ?
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Old 09-19-2019, 01:31 PM   #2
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IMO...the company line is the most useless piece of "handicapping" information in the past performances. I wish it were eliminated, to make room for more extensive trip notes on the particular horse.
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Old 09-19-2019, 01:52 PM   #3
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IMO...the company line is the most useless piece of "handicapping" information in the past performances. I wish it were eliminated, to make room for more extensive trip notes on the particular horse.
If you use Brisnet data files that is no problem you can filter it out (create a new style) and replace with info that you prefer to see.
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Old 09-19-2019, 02:04 PM   #4
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IMO...the company line is the most useless piece of "handicapping" information in the past performances. I wish it were eliminated, to make room for more extensive trip notes on the particular horse.



I admit , I don't make extensive use of it these days, but 'most useless' is an overstatement .



If nothing else the beaten length info.
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Old 09-19-2019, 03:55 PM   #5
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How many of you checkout the company Line in the past performances just to see who ran against who and what are their odds today etc. ?
I think it's an important piece of information (assuming you are very familiar with all the horses on the circuit). If you are, you'll spot the qualitatively strong and weak fields easier by name and see the gaps between horses - which can sometimes help you identify very strong performances based on how far ahead of the rest of the field a horse finished and who those horses were.

Only going directly to the charts to see "all" the horses in the race, watching the replay to see their relative trips, and then using Formulator to look at their PPs and see how they've been running coming out of the race is more significant.

If you aren't familiar with the horses and their relative trips in the race or believe 100% in the accuracy of numbers to measure how well a horse ran (I don't at all), then you need not bother.
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Old 09-19-2019, 05:15 PM   #6
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I use to see if any winners came out of the races in the last 10 lines, and to see if the place horse horse was well ahead of the show horse, ie, winner by 1/2, place by 10...
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Old 09-19-2019, 10:37 PM   #7
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I use running lines a ton in exotic wagering.



Birds of a feather flock together. I've hit a number of Exs/Tris on this very simplistic theory.
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Old 09-20-2019, 09:56 AM   #8
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I use running lines a ton in exotic wagering.



Birds of a feather flock together. I've hit a number of Exs/Tris on this very simplistic theory.
I haven't studied the betting patterns of the public or the results of races closely, but this is a very interesting topic.

If A and B are coming out of the same race you can compare their performances without worrying about whether their figures are accurate, how the pace and race development impacted the final time, whether they ran on tracks that were playing differently etc..

If you think A ran a little better than B in that race you are done.

If A and B are coming out of different races and have similar small differences in their figures, there's a margin of error associated with those figures that doesn't exist when they come out of the same race.
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Old 09-20-2019, 10:20 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I haven't studied the betting patterns of the public or the results of races closely, but this is a very interesting topic.

If A and B are coming out of the same race you can compare their performances without worrying about whether their figures are accurate, how the pace and race development impacted the final time, whether they ran on tracks that were playing differently etc..

If you think A ran a little better than B in that race you are done.

If A and B are coming out of different races and have similar small differences in their figures, there's a margin of error associated with those figures that doesn't exist when they come out of the same race.
What do you think of Serengeti Empress Saturday coming out of that huge effort in the Test?
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Old 09-20-2019, 11:22 AM   #10
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What do you think of Serengeti Empress Saturday coming out of that huge effort in the Test?
I haven't finished handicapping that card, but in general I think she's the speed of the speed and will be sent from the inside. She feels a little unreliable to me because she's thrown in some clunkers and she's being stretched out again in a race that does have other speeds. But I wouldn't want be the horse chasing her if she's still on her game after that last effort.

The more perplexing one to me is Guarana. She ran better than I expected in the Acorn and easily handled Serengeti Empress on a track that was better inside for SE (although SE was kid of rushed up after a less than ideal start), but I wasn't overly impressed with her last race even though it was good.

I can't use both of them or what's the point.

Maybe a bias will help make the analysis easier.

Then I'll probably search for a closer to pick up the pieces or blow the race up if the pace gets very hot or the track is playing that way (Street Band?). Still have to take a better look at those.

Covfefe is coming back too, but in a softer spot.
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Old 09-20-2019, 11:51 AM   #11
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I haven't studied the betting patterns of the public or the results of races closely, but this is a very interesting topic.

If A and B are coming out of the same race you can compare their performances without worrying about whether their figures are accurate, how the pace and race development impacted the final time, whether they ran on tracks that were playing differently etc..

If you think A ran a little better than B in that race you are done.

If A and B are coming out of different races and have similar small differences in their figures, there's a margin of error associated with those figures that doesn't exist when they come out of the same race.
But what if today's pace looks to be much different than the common race? Or the PP is radically different?
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Old 09-20-2019, 12:04 PM   #12
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But what if today's pace looks to be much different than the common race? Or the PP is radically different?
Exactly. Is that what Pizzolla calls a "reverser" ?
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Old 09-20-2019, 12:05 PM   #13
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I haven't finished handicapping that card, but in general I think she's the speed of the speed and will be sent from the inside. She feels a little unreliable to me because she's thrown in some clunkers and she's being stretched out again in a race that does have other speeds. But I wouldn't want be the horse chasing her if she's still on her game after that last effort.

The more perplexing one to me is Guarana. She ran better than I expected in the Acorn and easily handled Serengeti Empress on a track that was better inside for SE (although SE was kid of rushed up after a less than ideal start), but I wasn't overly impressed with her last race even though it was good.

I can't use both of them or what's the point.

Maybe a bias will help make the analysis easier.

Then I'll probably search for a closer to pick up the pieces or blow the race up if the pace gets very hot or the track is playing that way (Street Band?). Still have to take a better look at those.

Covfefe is coming back too, but in a softer spot.
My first thought was she would be tough to beat, but I think she is going to face heavy pressure from Jaywalk and possibly Jeltrin too. If she doesn't, she is going to have to run very fast to be clear. I'm not a big bounce guy but it is possible the Test took something out of her as well. That was a big race for a 3yo filly that could extract a toll.

Guarana's last race is a strange one, no pace and she probably doesn't want to be on the lead. Of the two I'd probably go with her in a match up bet. I'm not sure she'll offer any value.
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Old 09-20-2019, 12:08 PM   #14
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But what if today's pace looks to be much different than the common race? Or the PP is radically different?
In my comment, I was assuming all else being equal it's probably easier to evaluate horses coming out of the same race than different ones.

I would clearly adjust my thinking if the conditions today were going to be different than they were last time the horses met and one stood to gain more than the other.
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Old 09-20-2019, 12:16 PM   #15
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My first thought was she would be tough to beat, but I think she is going to face heavy pressure from Jaywalk and possibly Jeltrin too. If she doesn't, she is going to have to run very fast to be clear. I'm not a big bounce guy but it is possible the Test took something out of her as well. That was a big race for a 3yo filly that could extract a toll.

Guarana's last race is a strange one, no pace and she probably doesn't want to be on the lead. Of the two I'd probably go with her in a match up bet. I'm not sure she'll offer any value.
I hear you.

The "pass" scenario for me is concluding that Guarana is the most likely winner and SE is likely to hang around for 2nd after putting away the other speeds. That's probably what the tote board will look like. So unless I can get a price into 3rd to create value in the trifecta I'll watch. I don't need the favorite over the 2nd choice in an exacta.

A rail bias or something like that could clarify my thinking or make me think I can toss one of them.
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