RACE / PLAY OF THE DAY – HANDICAP SEMINAR - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

HWIG · 09-05-2019, 12:43 AM

I am going to use a visual handicap with HPLAY THE PROGRAM printout as a foundation.
I will list reasons a horse should win and reasons any other horse in the race should not win.

You are welcome to list your selection in that race, you must also list the reasons you think
that horse will win.

Looking for solid handicap angles what will benefit everyone.

I am a class and form handicapper, my hdcp basics have been listed many times on this site.
I will attempt to show you how those angles will produce a winner.

I idea is to learn and have fun...
.

HWIG · 09-05-2019, 12:47 AM

TWELFTH RACE:
03..BIRCH ISLAND BETTY 5/2

YONKERS - THURSDAY - 04SEP19

Code:

PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== TWELFTH RACE: 1 MILE PACE FMNW10000 - 82 TK POST: 10:30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 LOVINEVERYMINUTE 2/1 (QLA) 08/19 (A) 291 20 85 83 85/59 171 03 BIRCH ISLAND BETTY 5/2 (QLA) 08/15 (A) 283 18 84 80 80/59 162 06*SCWARTZ BROS BEATY 9/2 (Q$A) 06/13 (A) 282 15 82 81 81/59 162 05 DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE 7/1 (QLA) 08/15 (A) 272 11 79 75 80/56 151 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 281 WP +2 HR +8 SR +1 PR +9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ===============================================================================

I am basing most my selection on the last PPL.

BIRCH ISLAND BETTY
Reasons to like:
1..Drew the #8 post in five out of the last seven races
2..Won the other two races off the rail
3..Won last race with a final quarter of 28:0
4..4yrM has a right to improve agains the clock

LOVINEVERYMINUTE
It would appear that they do not know classify this 8yrM,
Won for nw20000L5, nw14000L5, lost in latest in nw10000L5
Reasons to try and beat:
1..Won for a higher class
2..Lost ground last two calls in last race
3..Raced the final quarter in 29:2

Handicapping off the final lines:
LOVINEVERYMINUTE leads into the stretch and is passed by BIRCH ISLAND BETTY.
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Sea Biscuit · 09-05-2019, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HWIG

TWELFTH RACE:
03..BIRCH ISLAND BETTY 5/2

YONKERS - THURSDAY - 04SEP19

Code:

PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== TWELFTH RACE: 1 MILE PACE FMNW10000 - 82 TK POST: 10:30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 LOVINEVERYMINUTE 2/1 (QLA) 08/19 (A) 291 20 85 83 85/59 171 03 BIRCH ISLAND BETTY 5/2 (QLA) 08/15 (A) 283 18 84 80 80/59 162 06*SCWARTZ BROS BEATY 9/2 (Q$A) 06/13 (A) 282 15 82 81 81/59 162 05 DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE 7/1 (QLA) 08/15 (A) 272 11 79 75 80/56 151 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 281 WP +2 HR +8 SR +1 PR +9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ===============================================================================

I am basing most my selection on the last PPL.

BIRCH ISLAND BETTY
Reasons to like:
1..Drew the #8 post in five out of the last seven races
2..Won the other two races off the rail
3..Won last race with a final quarter of 28:0
4..4yrM has a right to improve agains the clock

LOVINEVERYMINUTE
It would appear that they do not know classify this 8yrM,
Won for nw20000L5, nw14000L5, lost in latest in nw10000L5
Reasons to try and beat:
1..Won for a higher class
2..Lost ground last two calls in last race
3..Raced the final quarter in 29:2

Handicapping off the final lines:
LOVINEVERYMINUTE leads into the stretch and is passed by BIRCH ISLAND BETTY.
.

Would it be possible for you to post the screenshot of the race page in question? Just for the pen and pencil handicappers.

HWIG · 09-05-2019, 11:38 AM

It is not possible to display a program page because of copyright laws.

I use Twinspires, they offer a free program if you wager on the card, or a fee at a very reasonable charge, I believe as low as a dollar. I last used that service to get the KY DERBY program.

HWIG

EdZone · 09-05-2019, 01:05 PM

They give out today's program from R7 to R11.

https://www.trackmaster.com/freeCont...l/yrx0905x.pdf

HWIG · 09-06-2019, 01:04 AM

FRIDAY: beat the favorite, had the wrong one to do it.

ELEVENTH RACE:
01..GOLD ORCHID N (likely end up the favorite)
07..ANNABETH (FOR A PRICE)
05..CLEAR IDEA morning line favorite, cannot be considered for a win.

In order to win at the races, you have to know the class structure at the track you are playing.
In my computer program all class is converted to a claiming tag.

This is done by one of three ways.
1..Pruven lcalculation example: nw10000 = 25,000clm (10000 times 2.5)
2..Using the purse value – track to track.
3..Use of TM class ratings

YONKERS - FRIDAY - 06SEP19

Code:

PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== ELEVENTH RACE: 1 MILE PACE FMNW30000 - 89 TK POST: 10:10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 GOLD ORCHID N 7/2 (Q$A) 07/20 ($NOOZER) 90/86 03 SAFE FROM TERROR 9/2 (Q$A) 07/14 (A) 293 20 90 88 87/75 176 08 DONT THINK TWICE A 9/2 (Q$A) 07/14 (A) 292 13 92 90 90/66 183 05 CLEAR IDEA 3/1 (QLA) 09/21 (A) 281 14 88 86 85/57 170 04 SCANDALICIOUS 9/2 (QVA) 14/28 (C) 271 7 86 86 86/64 169 02 SHES PUKKA N 7/1 (QXA) 17/24 (A) 267 17 87 83 79/57 160 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 283 WP +3 HR +1 SR -2 PR -7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ===============================================================================

Code:

ELEVENTH RACE HCR HORSE POST 86 GOLD ORCHID N 1 86 ANNABETH 7 75 SAFE FROM TERROR 3 66 DONT THINK TWICE A 8 65 LIBERTY ROSE N 6 64 SCANDALICIOUS 4 57 SHES PUKKA N 2 57 CLEAR IDEA 5

ELEVENTH RACE:
01..GOLD ORCHID N..8/5
Reason to like:
In the last seven races raced twice at this class, won both.
Each in wire to wire fashion, #7pt & #2pt.
Wins with a repeat of June 28th Mile.

07..ANNABETH..6/1
A solid second the last time in for todays class, same driver.

05..CLEAR IDEA..8/1 (3/1 ML FAV)
Races at YR are less than ordinary, went out of town to win last couple.
STGA OPENHCP purse $15000 (that is half of todays purse = $35000 clm)
BTVA OPEN 1 purse $12500 even less than above.

Todays class nw30000 = 75000 claiming (PURSE $30000)
OPNHDCP = 90000 claiming (PURSE $46000)
.

Postime · 09-06-2019, 02:57 PM

I like the #2 throw out the last one with Sears
In the money last 8 and should take the lead at the 1/4 pole from the #6 and wire the field. Winner of $33,000 L5

Goes off at 2-1

Bogo · 09-06-2019, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HWIG

FRIDAY: beat the favorite, had the wrong one to do it.

ELEVENTH RACE:
01..GOLD ORCHID N (likely end up the favorite)
07..ANNABETH (FOR A PRICE)
05..CLEAR IDEA morning line favorite, cannot be considered for a win.

In order to win at the races, you have to know the class structure at the track you are playing.
In my computer program all class is converted to a claiming tag.

This is done by one of three ways.
1..Pruven lcalculation example: nw10000 = 25,000clm (10000 times 2.5)
2..Using the purse value – track to track.
3..Use of TM class ratings

YONKERS - FRIDAY - 06SEP19

Code:

PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== ELEVENTH RACE: 1 MILE PACE FMNW30000 - 89 TK POST: 10:10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 GOLD ORCHID N 7/2 (Q$A) 07/20 ($NOOZER) 90/86 03 SAFE FROM TERROR 9/2 (Q$A) 07/14 (A) 293 20 90 88 87/75 176 08 DONT THINK TWICE A 9/2 (Q$A) 07/14 (A) 292 13 92 90 90/66 183 05 CLEAR IDEA 3/1 (QLA) 09/21 (A) 281 14 88 86 85/57 170 04 SCANDALICIOUS 9/2 (QVA) 14/28 (C) 271 7 86 86 86/64 169 02 SHES PUKKA N 7/1 (QXA) 17/24 (A) 267 17 87 83 79/57 160 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 283 WP +3 HR +1 SR -2 PR -7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ===============================================================================

Code:

ELEVENTH RACE HCR HORSE POST 86 GOLD ORCHID N 1 86 ANNABETH 7 75 SAFE FROM TERROR 3 66 DONT THINK TWICE A 8 65 LIBERTY ROSE N 6 64 SCANDALICIOUS 4 57 SHES PUKKA N 2 57 CLEAR IDEA 5

ELEVENTH RACE:
01..GOLD ORCHID N..8/5
Reason to like:
In the last seven races raced twice at this class, won both.
Each in wire to wire fashion, #7pt & #2pt.
Wins with a repeat of June 28th Mile.

07..ANNABETH..6/1
A solid second the last time in for todays class, same driver.

05..CLEAR IDEA..8/1 (3/1 ML FAV)
Races at YR are less than ordinary, went out of town to win last couple.
STGA OPENHCP purse $15000 (that is half of todays purse = $35000 clm)
BTVA OPEN 1 purse $12500 even less than above.

Todays class nw30000 = 75000 claiming (PURSE $30000)
OPNHDCP = 90000 claiming (PURSE $46000)
.

Just so I know I am following. In race #4, would you convert Bluebird Recon's last race at the Meadows as equivalent to a $50,000 claimer?

HWIG · 09-06-2019, 08:10 PM

4th race is a 30000 clm hdcp - purse $25000

MEA OPNHDCP was for a purse of $20000

Using is purse the MEA race would be a 20000 claim tag.

I have always rated OPENHDCP at MEA at 35000 claim

Thanks for the question

HWIG · 09-07-2019, 12:28 AM

Tonight I am going to point out an improving horse.

FIFTH RACE: YONKERS - this race is listed nw30000 but should be handicapped
as a nw20000 race. There is not a horse in this race that has won for nw30000.

05..BANDIX HANOVER..5/1 is moving up in class while winning.
This horse has what I call a DIAGONAL POWER WIN REPEATER.

DIAGONAL: LAST THREE (P)OSITION/(C)ALL
ACROSS THE TOP
UP THE RIGHT SIDE
DIAGONAL

Code:

* * * * * * *

BANDIX HANOVER PPL

LAST THREE RACES
FINAL THREE POSITION/CALLS

Code:

P/C P/C P/C 1/NO 1/NO 1/1.5 3/.75 1/NK 7/3.5 4/3.25

POWER WINNER:
A. 2ND OR BEATEN WITHIN 1/2 LENGTH AT STRETCH CALL WON MIN. 1.25 LENGHTS
B. BEATEN WITHIN FOUR LENGTHS STRETCH CALL, WON MIN. 2.25 LENGHTS
C. ANY CLASS

YONKERS - SATURDAY - 07SEP19

Code:

PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== FIFTH RACE: 1 MILE PACE NW30000L5 - 91 TK POST: 8:10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 07 BRIGHT DIAMOND N 8/1 (QLA) 11/20 (A) 289 13 96 93 88/56 186 01 BLOOD BROTHER 5/2 (Q$A) 07/19 (C) 284 6 88 88 91/66 176 05 BADIX HANOVER 5/1 (QLA) 11/21 (C) 281 7 89 89 89/56 176 03 IN SPADES 6/1 (Q$A) 07/14 (C) 281 6 88 88 88/61 173 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 279 WP +6 HR +5 SR +7 PR +10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ===================================================================================

.

HWIG · 09-08-2019, 10:22 AM

Listing all races run: HPLAY THE PROGRAM.
Printout is attached...

Code:

PHILADELPHIA - SUNDAY - 08SEP19 PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== FIRST RACE: 1 MILE PACE 20000CLHC - 84 TK POST: 12:40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 07 ABNER THE GREAT 5/2 (Q$A) 06/21 (A) 291 20 89 85 83/56 173 02 SONG CYCLE SENESE 3/1 (Q$A) 07/21 (A) 289 18 86 83 83/55 168 01 BELIEVEINTHESPIRIT 6/1 (QLA) 08/18 (A) 288 11 89 86 87/51 177 06 KING HARVEST 4/1 (QLA) 08/15 (A) 284 15 86 82 84/53 168 05 RECORD MACHINE 12/1 (Q$A) 07/14 (A) 270 8 81 75 81/48 153 03 ROLLIN ABOUT 15/1 (QXA) 29/38 (C) 264 4 83 83 82/50 164 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 281 WP +2 HR +2 SR 0 PR -4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #7 & #2 are rated very close ===============================================================================

Code:

PHILADELPHIA - SUNDAY - 08SEP19 PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== FOURTH RACE: 1 MILE PACE 20000CLHC - 84 TK POST: 1:40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05*BASS PLAYER 9/2 (Q$A) 07/21 (A) 286 15 86 83 85/55 169 03 SPORTY SPOOK A 9/2 (QXA) 29/42 (A) 281 15 92 87 84/55 178 06 TRACK MASTER D 5/1 (Q$A) 06/18 (C) 280 7 85 85 83/50 169 04 QUICK FUN N 10/1 (Q$A) 07/21 (A) 279 12 82 79 83/54 160 01 DOWN ON MAINSTREET 6/1 (Q$A) 07/21 (A) 266 9 75 74 78/49 142 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 276 WP 0 HR +5 SR -6 PR -9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note that SPORTY SPOOK A has not raced in 29 days ===============================================================================

Code:

PHILADELPHIA - SUNDAY - 08SEP19 PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== FIFTH RACE: 1 MILE PACE nw20000L5 - 92 TK POST: 2:00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 09 TRUMP NATION 5/2 (Q$A) 07/15 (A) 306 21 97 93 95/64 192 01 WEONA SIZZLER A 6/1 (Q$A) 07/15 (A) 291 15 92 89 90/59 179 05 MACHIAVELLI 5/1 (Q$A) 06/11 (A) 288 11 92 90 89/53 179 06 BLOOD LINE 5/1 (QVA) 14/28 (A) 287 15 95 92 91/57 185 08 LARRY KARR 12/1 (QLA) 08/15 (A) 287 13 92 90 90/55 180 04*LITTLE BEN 4/1 (QLA) 06/45 (C) 277 6 90 90 87/57 175 03*ROLLINLIKETHUNDER 20/1 (Q$A) 07/18 (C) 272 8 82 82 88/54 160 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 296 WP +6 HR +15 SR +2 PR +7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: HPLAY PASS - SEVEN OR MORE CONTENDERS #9 starts from second tier ===============================================================================

Code:

PHILADELPHIA - SUNDAY - 08SEP19 PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== EIGHTH RACE: 1 MILE PACE nw10000L5 - 89 TK POST: 3:00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 01*MISTER OHANZEE A 5/2 (Q$A) 07/14 (A) 299 22 91 88 92/54 181 03 MCKENRY 9/2 (Q$A) 07/21 (A) 290 16 87 87 88/52 173 04*MIGHTY MR SHARKEY N 5/1 (QLA) 08/15 (A) 290 17 95 89 90/54 184 05 BRUCE'S MAGIC 9/1 (Q$A) 06/15 (A) 283 9 88 86 88/52 172 06 ROCKET DA RED 20/1 (QVA) 13/20 (A) 259 7 81 75 83/47 150 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 289 WP +5 HR +9 SR -4 PR -3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The most solid rated horse on the card. Last won at the class with same driver Lone 18+ win potential, best class rating, seven day race, rail. ===============================================================================

Code:

PHILADELPHIA - SUNDAY - 08SEP19 PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== THIRTEENTH RACE: 1 MILE PACE nw14000L5 - 91 TK POST: 4:40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 06 I'M A BIG DEAL 7/2 (Q$A) 07/14 (C) 292 11 92 92 92/63 185 02 MAROMA BEACH 7/2 (Q$A) 07/21 (A) 290 16 93 88 89/55 178 05 ALBERGO HANOVER 5/2 (QVA) 13/22 (A) 288 18 90 88 92/67 179 01 LATE MAIL N 8/1 (QVA) 13/20 (A) 276 8 90 88 89/62 175 04*OUR POSITANO N 10/1 (QLA) 08/24 (A) 273 12 91 84 83/50 167 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 282 WP -7 HR +2 SR -1 PR +6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Has only a (C)ontender figure, means rated off one race. (A)ctivator figure horses rated off up to three races. ===============================================================================

Code:

PHILADELPHIA - SUNDAY - 08SEP19 PP HORSE ML LA DSR (A) HR WP SR ASR CR/HCR PR =============================================================================== FOURTEENTH RACE: 1 MILE PACE nw7000L5 - 87 TK POST: 5:00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 NO EASY DAY 5/2 (Q$A) 06/14 (A) 295 16 90 87 91/55 181 04 MAGRITTE 5/1 (Q$A) 07/14 (A) 293 19 91 84 89/53 176 03 WINBAK WILLY T 8/1 (QLA) 08/17 (A) 277 8 85 83 85/51 166 05*ER ROCK MY WORLD 9/1 (Q$A) 07/15 (A) 272 7 80 79 84/49 156 =============================================================================== ACTION LINE: <HR-10> = 285 WP -3 HR +2 SR -1 PR +5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #1 & #4 are both win contenders ===============================================================================

.

Postime · 09-10-2019, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Postime

I like the #2 throw out the last one with Sears
In the money last 8 and should take the lead at the 1/4 pole from the #6 and wire the field. Winner of $33,000 L5

Goes off at 2-1

HN Horse Meds PP 1/4 1/2 3/4 STR FIN Time Last Q Odds Driver Trainer
5 ARMAGEDON SEELSTER L 4 1-1T 1-2 1-1 1-1 1-NS 1:56.3 29.0 *1.05 Er Goodell Ro Coyne Jr
2 MAGIC MVP 2 2-1T 2-2 3-1H 3-1T 2-NS 1:56.3 28.4 3.45 Br Holland Ch Norris
7 CRUISING IN STYLE L 6 3-3H 3-3T 2o-1 2-1 3-T 1:56.4 29.0 2.55 Ja Bartlett An Harris
1 EXS AND OHS 1 4-5H 4-5H 4-3H 5-3Q 4-2T 1:57.1 29.0 18.60 Sc Zeron Th Corelli
8 SECRET BRO L 7 7-11 7-10T 6-5 7-4T 5-3Q 1:57.1 28.3 28.25 Ja Marohn Jr Do Sider
4 FASHION FOREVER L 3 5-7H 5-7 5o-3H 4-2T 6-3H 1:57.1 29.0 7.00 St Smith Ka Garland
6 SEVEN KNIGHTS L 5 6-9H 6-8T 7o-5H 6-4Q 7-3T 1:57.2 28.4 42.75 Au Siegelman Ed Hart