Speed Figures Revisited

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Be honest, did you just paste this from your notebook?

One of several notebooks with similar comments.



I'm just at the point where I find these conversations almost hysterical. They remind of the ones on the sheets board where they think their figures are so accurate a 1/4 point figure move can be decisive.

Anyone that has spent time making figures or that compares sources understands what I am saying. No one knows what the hell is going on half the time. You just hope you are close.

[Tom]

I'll give you one valuable insight into maiden races.

Speed figures for maiden races (especially 2 yos) are sometimes wildly wrong. So watch how horses come out of races and what kind of figures they run back.

When a track changes speeds, figure makers often don't have much if any data to work with to create an accurate figure for a maiden race because of all the lightly raced horses and first time starters. So the races gets lumped in with the others around it (sometimes incorrectly). Then you find out later that the race was way weaker or stronger than the number. This is 10x more true for turf races with a lot of first time starters because the pace can also have a huge impact on the analysis.

I brought this comment over from the Maiden thread so as not go too far OT there.

I have a little trick I am trying out on 2yo races, MSW up to Gr1 Stakes.

Gr1 -1 class point
Gr2 -2 class points
Gr3 -3 class points
Stk -4 class points
Alw -5 class points
MSW -6 class points


Very simply - deduct the class points from the Beyer figure for the liine you are using - ie, a 69 in a MSW becomes a 63. A 92 in a Gr1 becomes a 91. That's it

In the Champagne today, it made the winner top fig horse even though it only ran in a MSW race (90-6 = 84)

The big fav, Green Light Go got an 82 for his 84 in a Gr2 race.

Going to go forward with 3 yos races after December. Looking for a way to mitigate big figures earned in cheaper company for the younger horses.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Tom

I brought this comment over from the Maiden thread so as not go too far OT there.

I have a little trick I am trying out on 2yo races, MSW up to Gr1 Stakes.

Gr1 -1 class point
Gr2 -2 class points
Gr3 -3 class points
Stk -4 class points
Alw -5 class points
MSW -6 class points


Very simply - deduct the class points from the Beyer figure for the liine you are using - ie, a 69 in a MSW becomes a 63. A 92 in a Gr1 becomes a 91. That's it

In the Champagne today, it made the winner top fig horse even though it only ran in a MSW race (90-6 = 84)

The big fav, Green Light Go got an 82 for his 84 in a Gr2 race.

Going to go forward with 3 yos races after December. Looking for a way to mitigate big figures earned in cheaper company for the younger horses.

Tom....

I did an extensive amount of research , using HSH factors, and what I found is that Class is the next in line "category" that Bris or Beyer do not incorporate into their figures....
If you can continue beyond your 2 Yo's usage ...maybe some good can come out of it...
and if you ask me what category comes after class...Trainer/Jockey would be next in line

Mike

[Dave Schwartz]

Tom & Mike,

If you want to try some cool stuff with figures, try this...

First, the logic.

Imagine the winner of a race ran a speed rating of 102.

Next, imagine a horse who finished 12 lengths behind the winner, and got credit for a 90 speed rating. (1 pt=1 len)

Do you suppose if that winner had only run a 94 that the 12L horse might have persevered a little more and run a little close (and therefore, faster)?

So, here's the idea.

Set a maximum lengths behind. Arbitrarily, let's say 5 lengths.

Any horse that is more than 5 lengths behind gets his beaten lengths cut in half.

Thus, in the example with the 12Len horse, instead of a speed rating of 90, he gets a 96.

Note that I did not say cut the DIFFERENCE in half. I said his entire lengths get cut in half.

Now, if you really want to get technical, you could, instead, ask the question, "Did he have a reason to persevere?"

For example, a horse who finished 3rd, 7 lengths behind, but was only 1/2 length behind the place horse was probably persevering for 2nd place...

... while a horse who was 7 lengths behind and 5 lengths behind the place horse was not persevering.

[mikesal57]

too much thinking and math for me to do...

wheres the magic button

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

too much thinking and math for me to do...

wheres the magic button

It's actually in there.

[46zilzal]

That magic button was WELL NAMED to the point I bet a dime super with it almost every race.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

too much thinking and math for me to do...

wheres the magic button

I used to question this and that about HSH.

Now, after reams of proof, I review about 7 factors in each race and just bet accordingly without much more investigation.


Computerizing a system is all about speeding up what you do...Took a long time for me to have the confidence to do it, BUT my gosh I cover many more tracks per day now looking for the same situations that have been very productive with all my records.

I stay away from turf MOST of the time too.

[Tom]

Dave, Sartin used to advocate not entering beaten lengths more than 9, no matter how badly beaten. It cause a great deal of discussion. It might even have been wired into some of his programs. Thanks for the suggestion.

46, was it you who argued against this? Forgive me if I am remembering it wrong.

My purpose itn all of this was to try to get a handle on what number a big maiden winner might be able to beat. Like yesterday, I did be the 90 maiden over the 84 Green Light go, and boxed them together. I know, just using the numbers alone would have gotten the same result, but some races I do get a big maiden winner who doesn't come out on top and I am just having some fun looking for the perfect number. Almost had it in '71.....

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Tom

Dave, Sartin used to advocate not entering beaten lengths more than 9, no matter how badly beaten. It cause a great deal of discussion. It might even have been wired into some of his programs. Thanks for the suggestion.

46, was it you who argued against this? Forgive me if I am remembering it wrong.

No that was the old tandem procedure. it worked well often particularly when a horse met an extremely fast pace of race and hidden improvement was masked by beaten lengths.